The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (2023)

Table of Contents
Experts are divided on the likely development of augmented reality - XR - and a truly immersive "metaverse". They hope that AR and MR improvements will become more useful in people's daily lives. Many fear that if Web3 development is led by those who built today's dominant web platforms, the current problems will be exacerbated. Common themes in the experts' qualitative responses: Full report with all the details and full results Experts agree almost equally on the likely development of an augmented reality and a truly immersive "metaverse." They hope that AR and RM improvements will become more useful in people's daily lives. Many fear that if Web3 development is led by those who built today's dominant web platforms, the current problems will be exacerbated. Related terminology “We have always lived in a quasi-multiverse” "The real world is completely covered with intelligent data, media and interactive information" A new class of apps will bring real experiences into virtual spaces The potential: socio-economic benefit and threat to the social order It is the “next logical iteration of the internet”; can be "really overwhelming". "My uncertainty about the metaverse isn't whether we'll have something in 2040, but what character it will have." The metaverse has little to offer to foster enduring human values. “The Metaverse is already set up as a highly polarized 'place'. “For the most part, the Metaverse will be a relatively mundane experience” "The Metaverse might be a nice place to visit, but most of us wouldn't want (or need) to live there" The metaverse is said to be addictive and "make people more susceptible to manipulation and less aware of reality". "The idea of ​​this becoming something new enough to be called 'the metaverse' is just marketing hype." "Freedom, love and happiness can only be found in real life" Stephenson's Metaverse idea was set in a dystopia that humans were trying to escape. "We'll have a lot of meta by 2040, but still not a lot of verse." Two big problems: creating enough bandwidth and data protection The goal of the metaverse is to quantify and monetize more aspects of life There are at least three versions of the metaverse that different people envision "It's no coincidence that early forays into virtual reality were marred by sexual harassment" Pitches for the Metaverse "fall on a spectrum from startup frenzy to stock inflation and the Ponzi scheme" "People's willingness and ability to invent new rituals, meanings, symbols and habits takes time to develop" Alternative idea: A "hyperverse" where people with "tools for thinking" can share It is a "story of raising venture capital for people who are running out of plausible technology to sell". Only players want to live in the metaverse for more than 5 minutes at a time Today's setting will be amplified and expanded as the metaverse takes off Current proposals for the Metaverse are “a concept looking for a market” The IEEE report encourages ways to ethically build XR for better social outcomes "The features created in the virtual world will increase the isolation effect of the real world." “People still need direct connections, physical presence and touch” "When fractal metaverses emerge, they will be like cable ducts: specialized, expanding, and consolidating disparities." Neuland: "How can you tell a machine from a human being?" "How will our data be used against us in the metaverse by 2040?" Each new tool expands horizons and deals damage A deeper dive leads to unexpected consequences, opportunities and threats How will governments respond to the multinational nature of the metaverse? If it goes the way of the Web and Web 2.0, "Web3 will deepen the inequalities" "It becomes even more difficult to separate the 'real world' from the many mirror worlds that we become involved and — yes — addicted to." The future environment, for most, will likely be "some sort of everyday mixed reality system that allows the physical and digital worlds to intersect." "We're going in headlong without all the security measures we need." Despite concerns, "the metaverse will eventually unite us," as other mediums throughout history have done The greatest impact will be related to the question: what does it mean to be human? A vision of what a great metaverse—or great metaverses—could look like Pay attention to the emergence of "digital twins" and the multiple ways they can be useful The worst online problems can escalate; then add interpersonal dissociation Services will grow and the digital gaps will also increase “It can increase our loneliness and lead to more polarization” A number of new societal challenges will arise “Education is where the biggest and most valuable changes can happen” “Demand for all types of physical objects will decrease dramatically” "We need signposts, guard rails and sets of rules to distinguish the metaverse from the biological universe" Metaverses will be stationary, discrete, task-based, and simulated "An even deeper immersion in 'social media', which means greater centralization of our culture and the growing power of the technological elite" A mirror world that will change our perception of place, space, time, self-expression and connection to reality Augmented and mixed reality applications will dominate virtual reality advances in the augmented reality world The next-gen connected knowledge ecosystem must be built to serve people better than today's web. Some respondents consider it unlikely that anything can be done about these problems The next two sections of this report focus on insights shared by 1) respondents who predict that by 2040 the metaverse will likely be a bit more widespread and advanced, and 2) those who say no. Each of these sections has several subsections that are linked to common themes that emerge from the insights of these experts. Profit motives drive significant investment in the advancement of these technologies Compared to today, many more people will find the Metaverse useful enough to access on a daily basis. Technology to create an immersive metaverse is possible by 2040 The pandemic gave the development of the XR a huge boost The Metaverse is not considered useful in everyday life The technology needed to reach many more people will not be ready in 2040 The biggest obstacle to rapid immersion in high-resolution, low-latency true VR is the cost of building a global network capable of supporting that vision. The Metaverse won't be very popular unless its level of usability can match the natural feel and convenience that the public has experienced with smartphones. People will prefer to live in layers of "real" reality Public concern over the effects of surveillance capitalism and authoritarianism will slow or halt adoption The use of XR will be expanded and accelerated in medical, industrial, training and education settings The ability to "travel" through a data-saturated world will create dramatic and enriching experiences Griefers, criminals, profiteers, and manipulators of all kinds will be able to use more sneaky and instantaneous action against the innocent on a large scale. People's social and cognitive abilities are weakened or lost as they become more dependent on technology The digital divide will widen again recognition Primary Researcher Videos

Experts are divided on the likely development of augmented reality - XR - and a truly immersive "metaverse". They hope that AR and MR improvements will become more useful in people's daily lives. Many fear that if Web3 development is led by those who built today's dominant web platforms, the current problems will be exacerbated.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (1)This report from Imagining the Internet Center and Pew Research at Elon University contains hundreds of predictions and opinions from experts who agreed to lead their comments in a survey conducted in February 2022 on development of extension reality tools (AR, MR , VR) and “the metaverse” by 2040.

The results were published on June 30, 2022- Pew Research Center and Elon University's Imagining the Internet Center have invited thousands of experts to share their thoughts on the likely near future of augmented reality and the "metaverse" in a winter 2022 poll. More than 600 technology innovators, developers and companies and political leaders, researchers and activists responded; of these, 367 wrote explanatory comments after answering the “yes/no” question of this study. This report organizes and categorizes the most common themes expressed by each of these experts in their in-depth analysis of the likely future based on current trends.

This site uploads the full 200-page report in an online scroll; You can alsoRead the traditional print version or download the printed versionby clicking on the appropriate graphic.

This page contains in order: 1) the research question; 2) a brief overview of the most common themes found in the speeches of these specialists; 3) the full report, summarizing the written input from the chapter experts.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (2)The Evolution of the Metaverse:This expert survey is prompted by emerging debates about the evolution and implications of the "metaverse" through 2040. Broadly defined, the metaverse is the realm of computer-generated networked augmented reality spaces (XR, including VR, AR, and/or MR). in which interactions take place between humans and automated entities, some in games or fantasy worlds, and some in "mirror worlds" that duplicate real environments. While extended reality games and social spaces have been around for decades, the technological advances of the early 2020s fueled the development of the metaverse, inspiring tens of billions of dollars in investment and prompting predictions that it would be "the future of the internet." be. ' or 'the next battleground of the internet'. The hope is that advanced, immersive 3D and online worlds can benefit all aspects of society - education, health, gaming and entertainment, arts, social and civic life, and other pursuits. Of course, as with all digital technologies, there are concerns about the health, safety, privacy and economic impact of these new spaces. This spurs new conversations about how the metaverse will mature and what it means for society.

The question:Given what you know about the metaverse, what statement comes closest to your view of its likely evolution through 2040?

  • By 2040, the Metaverse will BE a much finer, fully immersive, and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world.
  • By 2040, the Metaverse will not be a much more subtle and fully immersive and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world.

Results for the current evolution of XR and the Metaverse question:

  • 54%said that by 2040, the Metaverse WILL BE a much more sophisticated and truly fully immersive and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world.
  • 46%said that by 2040, the metaverse will not be a much more subtle and truly fully immersive and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world.

question follows:Tell us how you envision this shift from many online activities to more immersive digital spaces and probable digital lives. Regardless of how you view the timing of this, how could this change human society? What are the likely positive aspects of this transition? What negative points can arise? How can this change the everyday life of those connected? And how will this transition change the way we think about our world and ourselves? We are also interested in hearing your thoughts on the role of blockchain and its applications in this evolution of online life by 2040.

Select a link below to readonly the answers of the experts, without ranking or analysis

All the credit experts' thoughts on the future of XR and Metaverse in 2040

All anonymous expert opinions on the future of XR and the Metaverse in 2040

Listen to a 60-minute expert event recorded on September 15, 2022, linked to this report

Common themes in the experts' qualitative responses:

AR and MR will rule in 2040:Augmented and mixed reality apps will continue to be much more useful to audiences in 2040 than virtual reality.The design should not be entirely for-profit:The next-generation connected knowledge ecosystem must be built to serve the common good better than the current web.The business will continue to drive research and development:Profit motives will lead to significant investments in the further development of XR technologies.personsorFinding full immersion VR useful:A much larger number of people around the world will find the Metaverse useful in their daily lives by 2040.personsornoFind useful full VR setups:Fully immersive VR will not be considered a meaningful application in the everyday lives of most people in 2040.Technological innovation for much more complete VRorarise in the year 2040:The technology to create an engaging and easy-to-use immersive metaverse is achievable by 2040.The technology needed for a much more complete VR isnopossible until 2040:Updates to software, hardware, user interfaces, and networking capabilities will not progress far enough to spark much broader interest in full VR.The pandemic accelerated development:The arrival of COVID-19 has given a huge boost to XR development, particularly in the healthcare, business and education sectors.People prefer to live in layers of "real" reality than in full VR experiences:In 2040, most people will continue to find full immersion in VR uncomfortable because they don't want to be immersed and prefer to be mostly immersed in the real world.Public concern about the effects of surveillance capitalism and abuse by authoritarian regimes will delay or prevent adoption:Several of these experts predict that people will be unwilling to invest their time and energy in virtual spaces where they can be manipulated and monitored by corporate and/or authoritarian interests.There are several positive and fun ways to use the XR:Experts highlighted a wide range of activities and services that could be offered in Metaverse spaces, including training and education, business, medicine, chair travel, and the artificial replication of "peak" experiences such as space travel, imaginary worlds, or meeting and interacting with Sports stars, celebrities or famous personalities from the past.There are several threatening and harmful uses of XR:These experts noted a number of issues that could be exacerbated in Metaverse spaces, including reducing people's autonomy and ability to control their lives; growing digital divide and discrimination, harassment, intimidation and hatred, misinformation, online addiction, mental health issues; threats to personal data, privacy and security; and greater commercialization and monetization of basic human activities.

These themes are repeated in three boxes included below in the full report.

Full report with all the details and full results

Experts agree almost equally on the likely development of an augmented reality and a truly immersive "metaverse." They hope that AR and RM improvements will become more useful in people's daily lives. Many fear that if Web3 development is led by those who built today's dominant web platforms, the current problems will be exacerbated.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (3)This report presents the results of the 14th Future of the Internet survey, jointly conducted by Pew Research Center and Elon University's Imagining the Internet Center to gather expert opinions on important digital issues. This expert survey was prompted by debates that arose in the early 2020s about the possible development and influence of extended reality tools such as augmented reality, mixed reality and virtual reality and "the metaverse" or "metaverses". This is unscientific research based on a non-random sample; This wide range of opinions about where current trends may be heading over the next 18 years represents only the views of those who responded to the questions.

Interest in the idea of ​​the metaverse surged in 2021-2022, in part due to Facebook's decision to rebrand itself as "Meta". The word was coined by science fiction author Neal Stephenson in his 1992 novel Snow Crash. From today's perspective, the Metaverse is the realm of computer-generated networked augmented reality, or XR, an acronym that encompasses all aspects of augmented, mixed, and virtual reality (AR, MR, and VR). For now, the metaverse generally consists of somewhat immersive XR spaces where interactions between humans and automated entities take place. Some are everyday interactions with augmented reality apps that people have on their computers and phones. Some are interactions that take place in more immersive areas in games or fantasy worlds. Some take place in "mirror worlds" that duplicate real-world environments.

While extended reality games and social spaces have been around for decades, the technological advances of the early 2020s and the societal changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have fueled the development of the metaverse and spurred several new investments ten billion dollars proposed. and to predict that the Metaverse is "the future of the internet" or "the next internet battleground".

Proponents of XR and the development of more advanced and immersive 3D online worlds say its rapid development is likely to benefit all aspects of society - education, healthcare, gaming and entertainment, arts, social and civic life, and other pursuits. They believe that bringing more data into people's experiences, advancing artificial intelligence (AI) assist systems, and creating entirely new spaces and experiences for technology users can enrich and expand their lives. Of course, as with all digital technologies, there are concerns about the health, safety, privacy and economic impact of these new spaces. This has sparked much speculation about how XR and the metaverse will mature and what that means for society.

This increased interest and investment in augmented reality prompted the Pew Research Center and Imagining the Internet Center at Elon University to ask hundreds of technology professionals to share their thoughts on the topic. In total, 624 technological innovators, developers, business and political leaders, researchers and activists provided open-ended answers to a question asking for their predictions on the trajectory and impact of the metaverse through 2040. The results of this unscientific survey:

  • 54%of these experts indicated that they expect the Metaverse by 2040ORto be a much more sophisticated and fully immersive and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world.
  • 46%said they wait until 2040 the metaverseI WILL NOT GOto be a much more sophisticated and fully immersive and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world.

These experts were asked to formulate their multiple-choice answers into an open-ended question that prompted their views on the positives and negatives of the upcoming digital world. Two main themes emerged from these written observations:

  • First, a sizable portion of these experts argued that by 2040, the adoption of augmented reality into people's everyday lives will focus on augmented reality and mixed reality tools, not the more immersive virtual reality worlds that many people today perceive as define "the metaverse". . “.
  • Second, they warned that these new worlds could dramatically amplify all human traits and tendencies, both good and bad. In particular, they focused their concerns on the ability of those who control these systems to redirect, restrict, or thwart human action and suppress people's ability for self-actualization through the exercise of free will, and they worried about people's future freedom , to expand their native ability. Capabilities.

The main themes expressed by these experts in their written responses are described in the following three tables. The first table provides more details on the two main issues mentioned above. The second describes the top five reasons why the Metaverse is likely to be much more developed and widely used by 2040. The third describes the top five reasons why this will not be the case. Sample. The results represent the opinions of people who answered the questions only and are not applicable to other populations.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (4)

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (5)

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (6)

Related terminology

Augmented Reality (XR)is an umbrella term for all different forms of computer-altered reality. For some experts and technologists, other terms fall under the umbrella of XR:

Virtual Reality (VR)Fully immerses people in a digital environment. These setups can be created as fully synthetic computer generated content, they can be created from real world content (in real 360 video) or they can be a mix of both. Roblox is one of many popular VR platforms from the Metaverse in 2022. The most complete VR experiences at home or at work today require the use of a head-mounted device and haptic controllers.

Augmented Reality (AR)overlays real environments with digital information. You apply AR when you use your phone's camera to translate signs and menus from one language to another in real time, or when you play Pokémon Go. Hundreds of AR apps are available today for use on smartphones. AR keeps the real world at its core, but extends it with digital details that complement the environment.

Mixed Reality (MR)Experiences allow people to interact and manipulate computer-generated images in the real world in real time. You wear a headset but see and stay immersed in the real world while you use your hands to view and interact with images—for example, a 3D architectural design for a new school or a 3D schematic for an electric vehicle. Currently, RM is mainly used in industrial, military and medical education and construction.

mirror worldsare digital creations that mimic the physical and social structures of the real world in a virtual reality environment. Several companies are already working to create such representations of the entire planet. For example, Nvidia's Earth-2 is a digital twin that aims to improve its climate modeling ability. And many mirror worlds are backdrops for games or business. One example is Upland, a virtual property NFT game in which people buy, sell, and trade virtual properties that map to the real world—such as a real ballpark or museum.

Some of the broader responses from these respondents were long term. These experts wrote that "virtual" spaces have appeared in the human imagination for millennia and that no special technological resources or devices are required to create living places beyond "real life". At the same time, some have argued that even the most distant versions of virtual reality will still be anchored in the basic human sensory "interfaces" of eyes, ears, taste, smell, movement, balance, and language.

Still, none of these experts doubts that major shifts are on the way in the way reality is augmented by technology, or even reinvented in ways that are made possible by technology. As an XR pioneerAvi Bar-Zeev, a co-creator of Google Earth, HoloLens and more, wrote: "Virtual reality removes the most common limitations of reality: location and travel, physics, sometimes even time, where hours feel like minutes and we can travel into the world's historical past or imagined future".

Many were unsure what the timeline for all of these changes would be, but they did their best to envision where the evolution of today's XR technology trends could take society. Some of the responses that reflect this thought:

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (7)Laurence Lannom, vice president of the Corporation for National Research Initiatives, offered a succinct prediction, responding, “At its core, the Metaverse will be a collection of new and expanded technologies. It's easy to imagine that both the best and worst aspects of our online life will be enhanced by being able to enjoy a fuller experience by being in a digital space, rather than looking at it from the outside. On the good end of the continuum are things like people's ability to interact with each other as if they were all in the same physical space without spending hours burning dinosaur bones to get there; practicing difficult physical tasks (e.g. surgery) on virtual units; and increased opportunities for education and research of all kinds as we learn to take advantage of new environments internally. The other extreme isn't hard to imagine either - lighter addictions to engaging games and fantasy experiences, leading to greater isolation for many; even greater breakdown of social cohesion as the virtual offers an easy alternative to the arduous learning of living together; and increasing political turmoil as the prophets of fear and lament gain the ability to command rallies attended by millions."

Eduard Baig, a freelance columnist and longtime technology reporter for USA Today, wrote, "Even today's smartest people struggle to articulate the metaverse that ordinary people can comprehend, beyond something vague that consists of augmented reality, virtual reality, 3D, and mixed reality emerges. Of course, 2040 is a lifetime away in terms of technology years, and when you consider the magnitude of the financial and intellectual investment already being made into the metaverse, how could this not turn into something that is likely to have profound implications? in our everyday life? Whatever draws us all to the Metaverse, it must offer—or at least promise to offer—experiences and benefits that would otherwise be impractical, if not impossible to achieve (for lack of a better way of putting it). real world. 🇧🇷

Elisabeth Hymann, CEO of the XR Association, formed by Meta, Google, HTC Vive, Microsoft and Sony Interactive Entertainment to bring together stakeholders for XR development and adoption, shared several key use cases already proving useful in the XR space have: “Virtual reality, augmented and blended is the gateway to phenomenal applications in medicine, education, manufacturing, retail, employee training and more, and it is the gateway to deep social and immersive interactions – the metaverse. Every day we work to improve technology and ensure the possibilities are limitless - because they are. Focused on responsible innovation, the XR industry has built a strong reservoir of resources that form the basis for continued industry growth. While widespread adoption will take time and challenges will undoubtedly arise, we believe XR technology will become the next big computing platform. Colleges and universities are already teaching students in the Metaverse. HR professionals at companies like Walmart, SAP, Delta, and many others use the tool to train employees — some of the fastest growing job categories in the US are in industries that are rapidly adopting XR technologies. Applications of XR include warehousing and inventory management, product development and design, immersive professional training, and healthcare patient enhancement and monitoring in virtual healthcare. In healthcare in particular, we see the use of XR in children. For example, Children's Hospital Colorado is using XR to transform the children's hospital experience for the better - things like distraction and pain management, reducing the need for anesthesia and physical therapy."

Daniel D. Bryant, Wales-based VR educator, co-founder of Educators in VR and leader of the Virtual World Society, predicted: “By 2040, the internet, which you now access through a screen, will be a place where you log in, visit and can explore. We're currently looking out of windows (literally), but soon we'll start climbing out of windows and onto the internet. The word website implies a location. This is currently mostly in 2D. What if these websites are in 3D and you can walk right in and interact instead of using a keyboard and mouse? Think about how creative people are already creating and monetizing content on the 2D web. Now add a third dimension to that and you have just created what Charlie Fink has called “the greatest experiment in wealth creation and value creation known to mankind”. If young people can really stick their heads and hands in the "metaverse," just stand back and watch in awe. And that was before AI [artificial intelligence] came into play. AI will soon be able to create useful and very compelling virtual worlds and AI bots to populate them. It's been a wild ride. Better stay tied.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (8)Jon Radoff, author of the blog Building the Metaverse and CEO of Beamable, a Metaverse consulting firm, predicted the impact of gameplay on XR development. “The Metaverse will matter to at least half a billion people by 2040 because it already matters to several billion,” he said, referring to a general estimate of the number of people who have used popular games and social spaces, not on the number of users daily. “The metaverse exists. The most common definitions of "metaverse" are: 1) an embodied virtual reality experience; 2) aWeb3framework for economic interoperability; 3) a creative platform for experimentation (e.g. Roblox). Some current versions may be a mix of these. I think all of these "product-centric" definitions fail to look at the underlying culture and social change. The fundamental change is to see virtual property and virtual identity as “real” and/or important. One can trace the origins of the Metaverse back to Dungeons & Dragons before it was digitized and see it as a creative and imaginary space for social interaction and storytelling. Everything since then is simply technologies that have digitized, dematerialized, and democratized access to this category of experience.”

About half of those surveyed don't expect the VR aspect of the XR space to be significantly more popular by 2040.Kevin Werbach, Professor of Law and Business Ethics at the University of Pennsylvania and author of "The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust", commented: "There is no direct evolutionary path in terms of maturity and importance for this collection of technologies. Virtual worlds and online immersive spaces will continue to grow in importance, but 500 million people will not be living in the “metaverse” any more significantly in 2040 than they will be in 2022. Perhaps immersive games, social spaces, and work tools are merging into one sector of a coherent industry at this point, the we could still call 'Metaverse'.”

Eric Burger, most recently in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and as Technology Director of the Federal Communications Commission, now on the Computer Science Department at Georgetown University, responded: “The metaverse will evolve as remote self-regulation. Driving a car or flying: Almost there for decades, but structurally unlikely for decades. Use cases for fully immersive experiences have a small niche that, for economic reasons, is unlikely to develop into a global phenomenon in the coming decades.”

Jerry Michalsky, distinguished technology advisor and founder of Sociate.com and ReX, predicted, “An XR metaverse will be more like 3D TV than the web. It's becoming more expensive, inconvenient, and confusing, even if it's less informative and connecting. XR is transformative in certain areas and difficult in general. I don't see how 20 years of development will fix that."

Michael Klemann, a senior fellow at the University of California, San Diego, who previously worked for Boston Consulting and Sprint, replied: "Unless we recognize a great desire to escape from reality, virtual space will not add much to the human experience. The virtual world doesn't do justice to real-world interpersonal dynamics, it's expensive in terms of bandwidth unless you're just playing games, and it adds little to the value of the experience."

Among other things, many of these pundits cited Facebook's corporate pivot in calling itself meta as a catalyst for the increasing metaverse buzz over the past yearEthan Zuckermann, director of the Digital Public Infrastructure Initiative at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who wrote: “Smart people have spent a great deal of time exploring different approaches to building immersive, collaborative 3D online spaces using a wide range of technologies. Some achieved more success than others, but none expanded beyond an audience of around 1 million users. These users can be extremely passionate and willing to learn the intricacies of interacting in a virtual world. Some of them are willing to put in the effort to learn how to create and build in these environments, but so far we haven't seen any evidence that mainstream users see a good reason to overcome these hurdles.

“Facebook became meta for two simple and obvious reasons. First, its brand as a social media platform has been badly damaged through years of mismanagement and irresponsibility. If it could be related to anything other than angry online dialogue, it would be beneficial. Second, Facebook wants to own the entire stack, from hardware to content, just like Apple does. He's got a good hardware product on Oculus [a VR headset] so he's positioned to argue that VR is the future. But does anyone really want VR to be the future?

“Those of us who have walked this path before rememberSecond LifeThey explained that their metaverse is the future and we should all hurry up and buy a piece of it. This community never achieved mainstream success and hovered around 1 million users (overall, most were non-daily users). Yes, the technology is better now. But in 2040 I expect VR to be popular for games and some simulations. It will not catch on with routine office work, standard online interaction, etc.”

Jaquelyn Ford Morie, virtual reality pioneer and chief scientist at All These Worlds, co-editor of The Handbook of Research on the Global Impacts and Roles of Immersive Media, argued that there is still a long way to go before fully immersive technology is considered a reality. worthy of wide acceptance. "In order to be so successful by 2040," she said, "many people need to do a lot to enrich or improve their everyday lives. It has to go beyond games and entertainment to provide what every human being needs. The first and biggest step will be to instantiate and regulate the Metaverse as a public good/utility so that the widest possible number of people can access and benefit from it. It must offer value to its participants and not simply treat them as sources of money. If it needs to generate tons of money for corporations and the top 10%, it needs to be focused on niches and not real evolution of humanity.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (9)A notable portion of the experts surveyed said they expect augmented reality apps to be much more widespread in people's daily lives than immersive VR, which they expect to remain a niche.Ludwig Rosenbergis CEO of Unanimous AI. His Ph. walks down the street staring at a phone, neck bent, thinking it sounds odd and primitive. The metaverse will evolve in two directions simultaneously - the virtual metaverse (fully simulated worlds) and the augmented metaverse (layers of rich virtual content overlaid on top of the real world with precise spatial registration).

“The virtual metaverse will increase in popularity, but it will always be limited to short-lived applications – mainly for gaming, socializing, shopping and entertainment, and it will also have strong business and educational uses. The Augmented Metaverse, on the other hand, will replace cell phones as our primary gateway to digital content.

“The transition from mobile phones to AR hardware will begin in the mid-2020s and be complete by 2035, possibly earlier. It will fundamentally change society and turn our world into a mixed reality of real and virtual. People will wear AR glasses from the moment they wake up until they fall asleep, much like they carry cell phones with them today.

“Blockchain is used to assign ownership of virtual objects within the metaverse. There are many other potential uses, but it's still too early to know if this will happen or not. But property allocation is a natural adjustment. For a look at the expanded metaverse at the end of this decade, you can check out my amusing narrative: 'Metaverso 2030.'“

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (10)Many respondents who expect the AR/VR metaverse to be well developed by 2040 warned that this will significantly amplify the already existing digital societal challenges.Justin Reich, associate professor of digital media at MIT and director of the Teaching Systems Laboratory, expressed a view shared by respondents who expect big tech companies to continue exploiting users, writing, "The term metaverse was coined to describe an infernal landscape describe what is dystopian and corporate A fully financialized world is bereft of culture and values. Proponents of the metaverse are currently trying to make this vision a reality, hoping to create new digital surfaces that can be covered with new ads and make them as addictive as possible.

“As the physical world meets the saturation of existing advertising and data collection spaces, augmented reality is the new frontier of surveillance capitalism. If it succeeds, it will be as terrible as social media is today.

"Questions journalists haven't asked Mark Zuckerberg or others at Meta: 'How many hours a day do you currently spend in the Metaverse?' “How many hours a day do you encourage your children to spend in the metaverse? 🇧🇷

"My guess is that the typical meta employee spends very little time in the metaverse because it's awful. And they don't want their kids there because it's awful."

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (11)David Ottenheimer, Vice President of Trust and Digital Ethics at Inrupt, a company that embraces the newSolid data log(a method of building decentralized social applications pioneered by web inventor Tim Berners-Lee), replied: “We must explain that the Metaverse will only be a success if it augments the human in a human-centric model of data ownership. It is currently in danger of being co-opted by overly centralized platforms and restrictions, a regression to slavery models under the guise of a proprietary "digital twin" being abused by giant corporations trying to operate selfishly and above the law and that Social to deny good. 🇧🇷

“Those caught up in this abuse of rights, like industrial-age workers suffering the daily toil of soulless factory jobs, homes, and vehicles, yearn for an escape from the metaverse’s intentionally restrictive artistry.

"The utopianism and mysticism that fuel cultural waves of 'flight' in times of turmoil and technological disruption are back. There's a fundamental difference between the highly controversial technological ascension and the politically motivated escapism that Metaverse development will predictably plunge into.”

Sean McGregor, IBM Watson AI XPRIZE Technical Lead and Syntiant Machine Learning Architect, observed: “With every great (and terrible) technological revolution comes great (and terrible) social systems revolutions. Without a healthy skepticism about embracing software for our new reality and working together against our worst imaginings, we will fail to realize societal benefits that outweigh the costs. The transition will be very difficult and potentially dangerous, but so is most human progress.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (12)Keram Malicki-Sanchez, a prominent expert and activist who hosts conferences on VR, AR and XR and is the founding president of the Constant Change Media Group, advised: “There is no way to put the genie back in the bottle of immersive technologies. There is no future without 3D realities as part of it. Is it called the "Metaverse"? God, I hope not, if that means the MAANG companies - Meta (formerly Facebook), Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google - are adequate and order us to channel ourselves into a homogeneous, highly traceable somatosensory collection of walled gardens .

“An alternative path for these technologies is that they are built with open-source solutions, holistically and organically enhanced and extended by a global community that creates an estuary for systems that enable people to move seamlessly between 3D worlds to switch, in which they can integrate everything. want and share the experiences they choose.

“These are also media that can convey new perspectives and open up new perspectives of perception through dimensional connections. They can provide a framework for testing our thought and analysis processes, potentially escaping our cognitive biases, developing greater plasticity, or even testing new forms of embodiment.

“We must always consider how these new media can and will be manipulated and weaponized, and consider the rights of our future selves when we are subsumed into data. There are also important digital differences to consider here. These cannot be worlds accessible only to the privileged. VR needs to be built in a way that everyone feels they have the tools and access.”

Toby Schulruff,A senior technology security expert at the National Network to End Domestic Violence predicted, “Online will increasingly expand into everyday life through interfaces with our cities, homes and bodies. The possibilities of self-expression and connection over distance will expand, and that means we urgently need to reconfigure how we build and maintain trust in others, in information, and perhaps even in ourselves. So far, online life has mirrored and accelerated real-world trends, and in the absence of a major shift in priorities and design, so will the XR.

“The previous rules of the game were written by a few for many. Like other technologies, XR does not solve human problems such as prejudice, fear or violence. It accelerates and amplifies what is already present in society. So we're seeing tightening isolation, echo chambers, and dissociation from our bodies and communities. We're already seeing sexual violence transition from earlier online spaces and real life into more immersive XR environments. This is likely to spill over and intersect with other targeted violence or even mass violence or terrorism.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (13)“There is a real possibility that those who are 'plugged in' will become increasingly disconnected from the world around them. Future waves of pandemic diseases and the impact of climate change will allow those with the means to spend more time in virtual worlds. Will we be more willing to let the conditions around us worsen because we can escape into an alternate reality? Meanwhile, those on the other side of the digital divide will struggle to access resources, connections and opportunities.

"As we move from 'always on' to 'always in,' constant immersion can have physical, psychological, emotional, and spiritual effects, including stress reactions, headaches, trouble sleeping, and withdrawal. Paradoxically, although virtual worlds can be a way out of our bodies and limitations, many users describe heightened sensation, emotion, and response to virtual experiences.

“Another concern is that the more immersive environment will expand surveillance by governments and businesses, and even within homes. The boundaries between work and private life, between public and private, will continue to dissolve.

“Compulsory trends in technology design, such as B. dark patterns, will push users to make decisions they otherwise might not make. Such complex technology defies accurate predictions, but we can find clues from previous examples. If we don't change course, we will weave our flaws into the fabric of XR in empathy and fairness, just as we have done with other digital technologies."

Other intriguing predictions from respondents included:

  • Avi Bar-ZeevThese digital systems will perform increasingly sophisticated analyzes of how people think and feel about people and other elements of their lives, their private political and spiritual thoughts, and their emotional triggers. "We're turning people into data mines, not truly free-thinking individuals."
  • Glyn Rogerspredicted virtual extraterrestrial voyages based on imagery created from a variety of spacecraft sensors, "in which virtual vehicles can be commanded, driven, or navigated through environments where humans could exist with only the most extraordinary tools." ANDGary Arlennoted that alternative cyber environments will allow humans to virtually penetrate humans, animals or machines.
  • Jim Spohrernoted that "digital twins" often act as alter egos for people in different worlds. ANDMelissa Sassifound that a healthcare digital twin will be incredibly powerful when it comes to predicting disease models and sharing patient data between healthcare providers. She wrote, "One example that inspired this work is BioTwin, an early-stage health tech startup that created a virtual replica that aims to detect and prevent health problems before they occur."
  • Barry Chudakovsaid he hopes the mirror world's immersive environments can pose enough psychological issues that "psychiatrists and counselors are brought in to help people deal with multiple self syndrome."
  • Stephen Downespredicts that by 2040 most people will no longer be able to distinguish between avatars representing humans and artificial intelligence, adding that there will be "persuasive imitations and worse".
  • Jonathan Kolbersaid he expects "demand for all types of physical objects to fall dramatically" as people move to digital spaces to live more of their lives and the need for real objects decreases.
  • Markus RotenbergSaid gaming and other life experiences will be much more immersive by 2040, when participants will join their favorite sports stars in online competitions or share the concert stage with the avatars of famous musicians.
  • David PorushThe planned immersive reality will have unexpected implications for human intimacy and connection, and "new possibilities for global unity and tribal discord, for total control and individual freedoms, and for the effective expression of love and hate."
  • Raul Saxenasaid he expects a "super metaverse" of technological improvements that will help people augment their jobs, such as using imaging and actuators to perform surgeries. But some will choose to live in a "fantasy metaverse" that "favors gullible consumption over critical thinking," and he warned that "changing the fantasy metaverse will be like unleashing an opium super epidemic."
  • Sam Adamssaid the anonymity enforced by XR will create many more situations where people will trust transactions with unknown entities, transcend many reputation and branding norms, and allow "shady parties (e.g. companies whose income supports their anti-social agendas) without the transactions are clouded with their true purpose.”
  • Alexandre B. Howardsaid he expects people in any physical location to interact with layers of augmented reality and view the notes and glyphs others have left, with background systems pulling information about people, places and objects. He also warned that it is possible that “a metaverse could empower authoritarians to stalk, control and coerce billions of people in silicon prisons surrounded by invisible barbed wire and governed by opaque algorithmic regulations and vast artificial intelligences “.
  • Gina NeffCalled for an overhaul of fundamental social contracts on trust and democracy, noting that powerful narratives in the metaverse will combine new ways of experiencing social connectedness with new forms of "trust without trust" from the hundreds of small contracts and exchanges people are being asked to make do every day. Day.
  • Jaak Tepandipredicted that new species may evolve from the integration of humans and artificial systems, saying that "examples of important components in the evolution of such species include genetic engineering (including CRISPR), artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, metaverse, and others."
  • Warren Yoderencouraged humanity to examine its general transition, writing: "Postmodernism has questioned modern power and modern knowledge. That was useful then. Now, metamodernism acknowledges the existence of multiple modes of the real and challenges the imagination to pick up bits and pieces of useful practices wherever we find them.”

In the next section, we highlight the observations of a variety of experts who have provided some of the broadest or most succinct responses to our request to describe what XR and the metaverse might look like by 2040. We then offer a series of longer, more discursive essays written by the participants. This is followed by additional sections covering respondents' comments, organized according to the topic groups defined in the tables above.

The observations of respondents to this survey reflect their personal views and are not the views of their employers. Your descriptions of the leadership role help identify your background and the location of your expertise. Some answers have been edited slightly for style and readability.

The following succinct and comprehensive responses to our questions about the future of the metaverse represent some of the big ideas shared by a small sampling of the hundreds of leaders who took part in this survey.

“We have always lived in a quasi-multiverse”

Sam Lehman-Wilzig, Professor of Communications at Bar-Ilan University, Israel, and author of “Virtuality and Humanity”, commented: “Once the latest virtualization technologies (AR, VR, MR, etc.) are mature and affordable for the masses, humanity will they accept without too much hesitation. Take a look at human history. We've always lived in a quasi-metaverse, so the present and near future is just old wine in new bottles. Let me explain by sharing a very brief synopsis. Virtuality has accompanied us as Homo sapiens throughout our history and has spread widely over centuries and millennia. Such virtualization could not have existed for so many people for so long if it did not have myriad benefits.

"At least seven useful (even critical) functions can be identified:

  1. Survival (e.g. camouflage from predators).
  2. Escape from boredom (fantasy to go beyond the monotony of life).
  3. Efficiency (creative thinking outside the box, i.e. how to improve life technologically, economically, etc.).
  4. Curiosity (why the world is the way it is requires abstract thinking).
  5. Theory of Mind (mentally putting oneself in another's shoes to reduce social conflict).
  6. Planning for the future (thinking beyond the here and now).
  7. Alleviation of existential fears (search for the meaning of life; what remains after death?).

"Indeed, our excellence in mental 'virtualization' sets us apart from the rest of the animal kingdom. This virtuality found (and still finds) its expression in many areas of daily life and intellectual activity: religion and supernatural beliefs; physics, astronomy and cosmology; Philosophy; Mathematics; literature and art; Business; Nationality, Government and War; Communication – just to name a few example areas. Why should that be?

“The universality of human virtuality is a function of our psychological endowment. We perceive our environment in a very "virtual" way (extremely limited perception of the real world) and we do not think very clearly or rationally about our immediate and extended world (distorted perception, as shown by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). In fact, many people have always attempted to further distort perception through mind-altering substances. The recent epidemic of "fake news" (misinformation, "truthfulness" etc.) and so on.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (14)"The real world is completely covered with intelligent data, media and interactive information"

Mike Liebhold, Retired Distinguished Fellow, Institute for the Future, "The term 'Metaverse' is just a convenient meme and as short-lived as 'Information Superhighway', 'Cyberspace', 'Ubiquitous Computing', 'Pervasive Computing', 'Internet of Things' (IoT)”, “Web 2.0”, “the cloud” and “Web3”.

“VR/AR/XR are really just one medium. The only difference is the level of transparency and opacity of the pixels. By 2040, many vendors will offer affordable headsets, glasses and contact lenses with full mixed reality capabilities. Service providers will offer a wide range of services and applications that support the full spectrum of human experiences. First, locally connected experiences will be richer, denser, and more interactive due to the required processing power, storage, low latency, and high bandwidth. Over time, mobile experiences will improve dramatically as hardware, gigabit+ networks, and edge computing and data become more ubiquitous.

“Just as humans now have access to vast libraries of human knowledge instantly accessible online, in the future every object, place, and person will be connected to information, media, models, and computational and conversational agents that are findable, rich, and visible are , and accessible. connected. The real world is completely covered with intelligent data, interactive media and information, experiences and entertainment. Every node in the workflows of human activity is augmented by ubiquitous embedded machine intelligence, capable of providing conversational support for the orchestration and choreography of systems too complex for limited organic human cognition without the support of machine intelligence.

“Unfortunately, it is unlikely that humans would have overcome all of today's problems of fragmented attention, distraction, digital security, privacy, and persuasion without extensive efforts to build network literacy among the general population for cognitive immunity and to develop security and privacy best practices Media, then these phenomena will still exist in potentially frightening and powerful new forms.”

A new class of apps will bring real experiences into virtual spaces

Ach Harvey, Director of Engineering at Seven GPS, Cameroon, Central Africa, commented: “There will be a new class of applications designed for the same experiences we currently have in the real world. Some will explore human fantasies on a whole new level. Humanity will bring into virtual space the same positive and negative traits that we currently exhibit in the real world. Unfortunately, these include (but are not limited to) bullying, cybercrime, money laundering, sextortion, pornography, rape, violence and wars. However, we will also see some exciting new things in education, learning, research and development, and effective and insightful simulations of what is possible within well-defined constraints of time and space.”

The potential: socio-economic benefit and threat to the social order

Glyn Rogers, a researcher specializing in information security and privacy for complex systems and networks, commented: “The fully operational Metaverse will be the result of a confluence of further advances in several virtual reality development streams, most of which already exist. Examples are:

  • Immersive multiplayer games where opposing groups can strategize, build resources, and coordinate activities.
  • Text and video-based social media, where social "rules of engagement" are evolving to reduce the current lawless space to a more regulated, humane, and stable social environment.
  • Virtual travel, particularly extraterrestrial travel, based on imagery created by a variety of spacecraft sensors, where virtual ships can be piloted, steered, or navigated through environments where humans could exist with only the most extraordinary tools.
  • Remote work that the COVID pandemic has imposed on many people, often with quite positive reactions, at least in the most advanced and information-based economies.
  • Educational and training environments in which, for example, VR laboratories enable multi-participant experiments through simulation that would be expensive or impossible to carry out in reality.

“The integration of these developments into the Metaverse will likely not occur through a top-down system design process, but will likely occur episodically, driven by technical innovation and commercial opportunity. While this has the potential to maximize socioeconomic benefits, it can also pose a major threat to social order due to the risk of antisocial and even criminal exploitation. Note these points:

  • The broad scope of the metaverse suggests the need for a multidisciplinary international task force to oversee regulation of the implementation and operation of the metaverse, possibly under the auspices of the United Nations. There?
  • Social media activity to date has shown how the internet can be used to spread false information, misleading political messages and conspiracy theories in response to current events.
  • Due to its immersive properties, the metaverse has the potential to significantly exacerbate these problems, to the point of threatening social cohesion, pointing to the need for effective regulation of its development. However, since regulation is in the hands of individual nation-states while the metaverse is global, regulation will present a very difficult challenge, perhaps greater than regulation of the international financial industry, which has not been overwhelmingly successful thus far. . 🇧🇷

It is the “next logical iteration of the internet”; can be "really overwhelming".

Oliver Busch, Director of Agencies and Ecosystem Central Europe for Meta, who is working to build a bridge for marketers to the evolving Metaverse, commented: “The Metaverse – a 360 degree version of the internet to 'enter' content and with it to interact or 'invite'. digital content into our physical space - it will just be the next logical iteration of the internet. The development of the metaverse has already passed the tipping point and is happening in many ways every day.

“The use cases for 360-degree digital content in AR and VR for business or personal use go far beyond the thriving gaming scene and growing adoption of VR devices. The development of AR devices and the ability to add valuable content to our surroundings will propel the magic of the metaverse beyond VR. Over the past two decades, internet users have shifted from viewing text with images to text only, and then to watching videos to photos.

“I can't imagine a future where people would skip the option to interact with web content in more realistic 3D and stick with 2D instead. In order to see into the future, we need to distinguish short-term hype from a sustained trend. The short-term focused speculation and PR stunts of digital branding exist, but the truly mind-boggling scale of Metaverse-type gaming experiences allows one to envision the long-term potential of digital 3D AR/VR content for everyone around the world. World. planets, in every area of ​​life and business.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (15)"My uncertainty about the metaverse isn't whether we'll have something in 2040, but what character it will have."

David Clark, Pioneer Internet Hall of Famer and Senior Research Fellow at MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, commented, “The term 'metaverse' comes from the 1992 science fiction novel 'Snow Crash' by Neal Stephenson. We must respect the sci-fi writer's ability to envision a future (however dystopian, of course). We should also keep in mind that since that time, computer scientists have been dreaming about what it really takes to achieve that future.

“Often new applications are designed well in advance and wait until network performance and reach are sufficient for the application to break through into the mainstream. We invented VoIP, Voice over Internet Protocol, around 1978 and video conferencing in the 1980s. VR, AR, etc. have been lurking around for a while. Is now her time? I see two relevant problems. First, will the Internet work well enough to support a "metaverse" of whatever that is, and second, what will the technical foundations of that metaverse be?

“Regarding the first question, the Internet will certainly have the ability to maintain a shared experience within a shared visual environment. The fundamental barrier to high remote interactivity on the Internet is latency, and latency will not improve because the Internet today moves data at near the speed of light, and the speed of light is a constant. For example, when multiple participants in a metaverse are in the same metropolitan area, it may be possible to reduce latency to a point where close real-time interaction can occur with reasonable quality, but the interaction is (say) across the land will always have around 100 milliseconds of delay there and back, and that means (again, for example) that we'll never be able to create live music with widely popular artists. A hundred milliseconds is a lot of delay for synced music. There is a large body of research on the quality of experience, and I suspect the work will provide insight into the types of interactions possible in a metaverse.

“As for the second question, I think the three key considerations are: where will the standards come from? How open will the system be? who controls it My uncertainty about the metaverse isn't whether we'll have "something" by 2040, but what character it will have. While the Internet (and early applications like email) were decentralized and based on open standards, most of our applications today are developed and controlled by a private, for-profit company. This result has both strengths (rapid development, better control of the quality of the experience, better regulation of abuse, etc.) and major limitations.

“One result could be that there are competing metaverses, just as we have competing social media platforms today, without the ability to transfer a participant's attributes from one metaverse to another. The market may tilt towards a vendor gaining monopoly control of the metaverse. Will it be a "free" experience with the visual space filled with billboards?

“An example of a 'low-fidelity' metaverse is Second Life, which has garnered a lot of attention as an alternative experience space. But it never got the traction that got the world into it, despite much initial enthusiasm. We have until 2040 to try and maybe fail several times. But should we leave the shape of the metaverse in which we can all find ourselves to a single private company motivated to build a closed system?”

The metaverse has little to offer to foster enduring human values.

You're afraid of Friedman, professor of human-computer interaction at the University of Washington, wrote: "How do the features, structures, and expected interactions of an imaginary metaverse match the kind of society we want to build and inhabit? What kind of person do we want to be and how do we want to live in relation to others - human, non-human and the planet? I personally find the characterization of the metaverse impoverished. In life, our time and attention are our most valuable resources. A Metaverse-like environment often takes advantage of this.

"A thought experiment: Consider the resources allocated to the development of the metaverse - in terms of time, computation, energy for computation, and all the other materials involved. These functions are ongoing - to uphold, nurture and promote the Metaverse. Also consider the time and attention of the people doing the metaverse. Your time and attention are continuous. Now imagine that these resources are allocated differently. People spend time planting trees in their neighborhoods. Parents spend time playing with their children. Teenagers spend their time developing as artists, engineers, runners, caregivers. Food is grown, harvested, cooked and eaten. Lips smile, eyes sparkle. We are fundamentally embodied creatures. Our well-being is based on it. What future would you build?

"Yes, some limited Metaverse-type activities can enrich our lives. But overall that's a lot less than what's imagined here. If the human values ​​of dignity endure; emotional, psychological and physical well-being; Caution; Touch; and community guide our decisions - what we build, where and how we live our lives, who we want to be and what societies we want to enable - the metaverse has little to offer. It is better for us to spend our resources – our time, attention and beings – elsewhere.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (16)“The Metaverse is already set up as a highly polarized 'place'.

Sonia Livingston, Professor of Social Psychology at the London School of Economics and Special Adviser to the House of Lords Select Committee on Communications, said: "The experience of the last few decades has taught us that digital innovations - now including the Metaverse - are becoming increasingly sophisticated and effective for a considerable Part of the population enough to drive the business and ensure continuous innovation and improvement. At the same time, we know that for a sizeable minority, the outcomes will be problematic - exclusionary, discriminatory, hostile, exploitative and even dangerous.

“The Metaverse is already set up as a highly polarized 'place'. Some develop creative expressions and are eager for new ways of participating and doing business.

  • All will find their data exploited and previously public dimensions of life monetized and in some ways integrated and degraded.
  • Everyone will experience a digital world where sacrifices — to the public, our private lives, and for a minority of “vulnerable groups” — in a rush to privilege the already privileged, overlook any protest at what is being lost, or what If that's wrong, it's ignored as 'collateral damage'.”

“For the most part, the Metaverse will be a relatively mundane experience”

Alfred Rehn, Professor of Innovation, Design and Management at the University of Southern Denmark, replied: "While it is true that the metaverse will be popular and immersive in 2040, we should not assume that we will live our lives fully in a Technicolor universe be spend by anime avatars. . Instead, the Metaverse will mostly be a relatively mundane experience. Much like the internet, many things will be things we pop in and out of, rather than where we actually live. We will use our glasses connected to the metaverse to read a message or watch a funny video along the way, and you can consult the menu of a welcoming place with them while walking around the city.

“The Metaverse will be very similar to our current smartphones, essential tools for work and play, but not something that most people will get lost in. Yes, there will be some who will become "native" to the metaverse and begin to see their avatar there as real and not their material self, but this is already the case for some trolls and other netizens. The more immersive parts will create great opportunities for art and information - imagine a documentary putting you in the middle of a war or in the audience at a concert - but for a lot of what people do in their lives it will be an evolution rather than an evolution, a revolution.

“Excel will no longer be exciting in the metaverse, and when you're working on a report or a novel, the last thing a person needs is a buzzing look at the cyberpunk around them. Sure, with a celebrity's avatar as your personal trainer, training can be a little more fun, and there will be conversations and even encounters in the metaverse, but for the most part we'll just embrace it as another way of doing things - and have fun. After all, we still listen to the radio – today we call it a podcast.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (17)"The Metaverse might be a nice place to visit, but most of us wouldn't want (or need) to live there"

Michael Altman, a social and information scientist at MIT's Center for Research in Equitable and Open Scholarship, replied: "It is highly uncertain whether a unified, fully immersive 'metaverse' will become an important aspect of common daily life for a sizable fraction of humanity will be world population world population by 2020. Virtual reality has been predicted as “the technology of the next 20 years” for over half a century, since 1962 and Morton Helig's multimodal pioneer Sensorama. VR and the metaverse could remain “the technology of the next decade” for another 50 years. The reasons against the widespread global adoption of fully immersive, general-purpose virtual worlds (and even more so against a single global “metaverse”) are not primarily technical, but rather psychological, sociological, political, and economic.

"Advances in technology may be good for producing the Metaverse - but what is the Metaverse for? The central purpose of the Metaverse is to provide a unified immersive audiovisual environment. These environments are certainly good for some things - for example, they can be useful for promoting certain emotional states like admiration.

“In general, as virtual reality researcher Jeremy Bailenson notes, there are four conditions under which immersive experiences are of high value: when the corresponding experiences they emulate areCru,impossible,dangerousorCaro🇧🇷 There are many situations that meet these conditions, but they are not the norm - for most human interactions and tasks, reality immersion arguably works better objectively and subjectively. The Metaverse might be a nice place to visit, but most of us wouldn't want (or need) to live there.

The metaverse is said to be addictive and "make people more susceptible to manipulation and less aware of reality".

Steve Hanna, a respected engineer at Infineon Technologies and an expert on security in the Internet of Things, replied: “The wider adoption of immersive technologies by 2040 will make people more vulnerable to manipulation and less aware of reality. Organizations will find ways to break down barriers to adoption and increase people's enjoyment of the experience.

“Human behavior is quite predictable. Among other things, we like to interact with other people or realistic simulacra. Companies and investors are aware of this. They design their offers with a high risk of addiction. They are constantly studying human behavior and testing changes to their systems to maximize engagement. As VR and other immersive technologies are refined, they are sure to become more attractive. Therefore, young people (who have few barriers to adopting new technologies) will spend more and more time in fully immersive and manipulative environments. We've already seen this in immersive gaming environments.

“I have serious concerns about the impact of this trend on society and individuals. Most people already get their news and worldview primarily from the media. While we might expect governments to step in to solve these problems, most countries have dominant philosophies that are either authoritarian or libertarian. The first will use VR as a means of population control. The latter will allow companies to promote VR and get people to embrace it.

“Some people and groups will reject the virtual reality trend, but they will be outliers. I know this prediction is dystopian, but I think it is likely unless companies, policymakers and researchers quickly develop a deeper understanding of VR's impact on personal and social development and develop alternative models.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (18)"The idea of ​​this becoming something new enough to be called 'the metaverse' is just marketing hype."

cory doctorow, activist journalist and author of “How to Destroy Surveillance Capitalism”, wrote: “Digitization will increase and user interfaces will become more intimate (e.g. haptic, visual and auditory feedback), but we will have nothing like '' the metaverse ' just as we do not currently live in the 'internetverse' or already inhabit the 'telephoneverse'.

“People already spend a lot of time socializing in virtual worlds and are already using screens and other UI elements to augment reality (e.g. left — you put it in your pocket and when the next maneuver beeps, you spin without consultation to). This will continue (assuming civilizational continuity), but the idea that it will become something new enough to call "the Metaverse" is just marketing hype.

“The future compensates for the past, and technology enriches, not displaces. In 2040, examples of all the systems we have today will still be in critical service, wrapped in layers of imperfect abstraction that often need to be stripped away to manipulate them directly (just as you can do plenty with an ATM without it needing to touch a bank's COBOL backend, but eventually you need to find a COBOL programmer).

“The Metaverse as we understand it today is the result of Facebook's desperate attempt to stop the bleeding of users, engineers and reputation; combined with the idea of ​​blockchainism that all problems of humanity's collective action can be solved with wealth speculation and financial incentives.”

"Freedom, love and happiness can only be found in real life"

Markus Rotenberg, Founder and President of the Center for AI and Digital Policy, wrote: “By 2040, VR techniques will be more widely available in many fields, including medicine, public safety and, unfortunately, war. But these will be contextual special uses where human capabilities are augmented by VR. By 2040, games will also be much more immersive, with participants competing against favorite sports stars in online competitions or sharing the concert stage with the avatars of famous musicians.

“But the Metaverse's vision of moving the community online is not being realized. Many of today's social problems are easily amplified and very difficult to monitor. The power demand will be exceptional at a time of critical concern about climate change and the specific needs of large model computing. In fact, the "Matrix" films offered a profound warning about the problem of the metaverse - we would inhabit a world controlled by others and powered by the energy of our bodies. Take the red pill. Freedom, love and happiness can only be found in real life.”

Stephenson's Metaverse idea was set in a dystopia that humans were trying to escape.

Christian Huitema, a privacy consultant, 40-year software and internet industry veteran, and former director of the Internet Architecture Council, wrote: “I don't see a single metaverse dominating the world for the next 20 years. The metaverse has long been envisioned - we must remember that Neal Stephenson's 1992 book Snow Crash is set in a dystopian world, a real world so bad that humans were driven to escape it and switch to a virtual video game in their free time. Will the world be so terrible in 20 years that people will reward flight? And does this escape require building a parallel world rather than a variety of game universes?

"I certainly hope that the worst dystopias don't happen, but I also very much doubt that a single parallel metaverse is the solution. The idea of ​​a single metaverse as a dystopian social media continuation would be a continuation of the worst aspects of Facebook: a centralized system controlled by a single company, dominating the internet through network effects and massive scale. Postulating such domination implies that society will allow it.

“We already know that the Chinese government will not allow this. They will ensure that a national champion emerges that they can control. A somewhat similar backlash is taking place in Europe, where European governments are increasingly blocking the collection of private information that funds Facebook and other surveillance capitalists. It's too early to tell, of course, but it could lead to the arrival of several competing networks in Europe, which we're already seeing as Telegram grows."

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (19)"We'll have a lot of meta by 2040, but still not a lot of verse."

Doc Sears, internet pioneer and co-founder of Customer Commons, wrote: “While the number of people inhabiting immersive virtual spaces could surpass half a billion by 2040, we will have lots of meta but not much verse. Some things require enormous computing capacity and power. This includes immersive online worlds. Therefore, we must first recognize that online immersive environments can only be created and maintained by huge companies with huge data centers: companies like Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Samsung today, some of which are already heavily invested in this space. .

“It also means that the 'free market' for VR and AR hardware, software and services will be 'your conqueror's choice' - as we are today with PlayStation vs. Xbox gaming platforms and iOS - vs. Android phone platforms have done. You will not have more freedom and independence than these companies support and allow on their separate platforms. Privacy will also be more of a promise than a possibility that each of us can take with us anywhere in our immersive worlds. No clothes to hide our naked selves, no private rooms with doors, locks, blinds or shutters that the host platform cannot see. You can say they won't look, but we can't be entirely sure they won't or that their funding sources won't.

“That's how black boxes work. And there is little regulators can do except "prohibit violations" and prosecute suspected offenders when they can be discovered. Still, VR and AR have many obvious and useful purposes in industries that are sure to be well-served by 2040. These include entertainment (including movies, games and online sports), healthcare (e.g. remote surgery), industrial and military.

“Will all of this be enough to push the number of users in “fully immersive” digital spaces to over half a billion people? Probably. But is occupying these spaces a “well-functioning aspect of everyday life”? No, not when these spaces are isolated in corporate silos, with no real privacy and no more agency than the corporate overseers allow.

"Will we eventually have immersive environments that are as free and open as the internet has been since its inception? Possibly. But only if we have open standards to build them, open source to build them, and proprietary privacy technologies like we have with clothing and shelter in nature. So far we have almost none of them in the immersive online space. WebXR and OpenXR show promise on the standards front, but they are very early efforts.”

Two big problems: creating enough bandwidth and data protection

James Mazzone, director of global projects at the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, wrote: “In the 1990s I experienced the excitement of Jaron Lanier's early experiments in virtual reality. In the first decade of this century I took a closer look at the widely publicized VR experiment Second Life. Today I am skeptical as I observe the recent surge of optimism about the future of the metaverse. There are still two main problems to solve - these are the same ones that choked off the previous waves:

  1. The availability of the massive bandwidth required to create a satisfying environment for a realistic experience.
  2. The enormous problems such an environment poses for privacy and control of personal data.

"A third issue — one that's often overlooked — is the rift that can separate those who remain in the real world and others who have relocated most of their life experience to a metaworld. Ultimately, the two communities must come together in a common place because they live in the same country, in the same democracy, on the same planet.

“Reconciling the two worlds can be very problematic. The science fiction films of the past can illustrate the risk of this dichotomy. In the Wachowskis' film trilogy, The Matrix, almost all of society has moved into the Metaverse. No one has ever imagined a situation where just a portion of the world's population - maybe half a billion people - will move to a "brave new world" and everyone else won't. Then the situation will look more like in John Boorman's "Zardoz". In neither of these two dystopian stories does humanity seem to have a happy ending.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (20)The goal of the metaverse is to quantify and monetize more aspects of life

Douglas Rushkoff, digital theorist and host of NPR One's "Team Human" podcast, responded, "The only true purpose of the metaverse, or the 'decentralized' Web3 blockchains that power it, is to provide more 'surface' for markets. The goal is to quantify and monetize more aspects of our world and experience. In the metaverse, these words I type and the air I breathe are intellectual property. So if we succeed in doing this for another 20 years, it will be because we – like the Israelites who fled from Egypt – escaped the needs of the market.

“Instead of being trapped in virtual simulations to give more money to the wealthiest elites, we will have the joy and privilege of touching other people in the real world, looking at the sun, swimming in clean water and nature restore the planet.

“It is very difficult to look at the future of any particular network interface in isolation, especially when much larger issues such as climate change, mass migration, despecification, geopolitical conflicts and others are still unknown. The ability of a billion people to spend much of their time in the metaverse by 2040 will depend on our ability to find new sources of power for the servers and water for the users.

"If we're able to fight climate change, massively reduce our carbon footprint and energy use, and avoid a global political catastrophe, I believe it's because we've somehow eluded capitalism's demand for exponential growth . In other words, we will have somehow managed to abandon all life, human and otherwise, to the abstract needs of an ill-programmed balance sheet, and decided that the sustainability of our planet and some of its species is even more important than the share price of the fortunes of the world's 80 largest families . And when we get there, the idea that we want or need a metaverse is challenged.”

There are at least three versions of the metaverse that different people envision

Ayden Férdeline, a Berlin-based technologist of public interest, wrote: "Several futures are envisaged for the metaverse. For some, the metaverse is a place of escapism where we don't have to use our real names. For others, it means exactly the opposite: it's a place to bring the virtual world to reality. A third important definition is linked to the Web3 movement: these people hope, or at least hope, that in the future everything online will be decentralized, that we will have an open and decentralized metaverse where no single entity is in control of behavior , assets and data, transferring power to the public away from corporate and government interests and potentially enabling a more democratically governed world.

"The broadest possible definition of the metaverse is that it's just the next iteration of the internet, except that it's no longer just the artifacts of the people who are online, but also includes the people themselves. It will be the next full 20 years before we make the Metaverse what enthusiasts expect today.

“I anticipate that as we build the metaverse, we will carefully consider the privacy and security implications of how this technology can be leveraged. During the early development of the World Wide Web, security was an afterthought. Evil actors exploit loopholes. It's likely that most of the metaverse is tightly tied to our real-world identities, and we can't see all of the apps, devices, and other users we interact with or are being monitored with.

“We need to find a way to filter out all of this damage when extracting content from a future spatial internet. A solution here might be what Richard Whitt of the GLIA Foundation (which works towards a trusted open web) suggested, asking us to choose a trusted intermediary: a library, a newspaper, or a consumer protection agency to create a "filter" for it to develop and maintain examines our Metaverse interactions and has a duty of care and loyalty to defend our interests. Other solutions will likely emerge, but resorting to escrow rather than reinventing the wheel seems to me a good way to address various forms of wrongdoing committed by third parties at our expense.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (21)"It's no coincidence that early forays into virtual reality were marred by sexual harassment"

Maria Anne Frank, Chair of the Cyber ​​​​​​Civil Rights Initiative, a nationally and internationally recognized expert on the intersection of civil rights and technology, said: “It is very likely that by 2040 much daily activity will take place in the 'metaverse'. given the resources poured into cybersecurity technologies, augmented reality by billion-dollar corporations ruthlessly focused on profit potential. And if past performance is the best predictor of future performance, it means the state of our language, our security, our privacy, and our democracy has changed dramatically, not evolved.

“Over the past 20 years, the tech industry has had a free hand to subordinate all societal values ​​to the 'engagement' drive, with predictable dystopian results; If they continue to enjoy this impunity, the next 20 years will only intensify this situation. The move to augmented reality will undoubtedly have some positive effects: virtual and augmented reality technology offers tremendous opportunities for education, physical therapy and psychological treatment. But those opportunities will pale in comparison to the increasing opportunities for harassment, surveillance, sexual exploitation and misinformation.

It is no coincidence that early forays into virtual reality were marred by sexual harassment (see the experiences of beta testers on Meta's social VR platform) or that increasingly sophisticated digital manipulation tools targeted the sexual exploitation of women. (e.g., “deepfake” porn websites and “nudification” apps) and escalating political tensions, yet major companies in the extended reality space continue to treat security and privacy considerations as an afterthought, if at all.

“One reason is that these companies remain dominated by a select class of people — white, wealthy and male — who have not yet internalized the lesson that what works well for privileged groups can be disastrous for vulnerable groups and that failure to observe this fact will end up jeopardizing the common good. Another reason is that the tech industry hasn't been given any incentive to worry about the negative consequences of their "move fast and break things" mentality.

“During Section 230 of the U.S. Communications Decency Act of 1996 continues to be interpreted as isolating the technology industry from long-held principles of collective responsibility - preemptively absolving it from liability for fully foreseeable damages caused by reckless practice or negligence - continues to become increasingly invasive and produce immersive products regardless of the danger they pose to society.”

Pitches for the Metaverse "fall on a spectrum from startup frenzy to stock inflation and the Ponzi scheme"

Janet Murray, noted digital media scholar, influential interaction designer, and author of Hamlet on the Holodeck: The Future of Narrative in Cyberspace, wrote: “The current dynamic is driven by greed and based on magical thinking. Magic Leap is meant to be a wake-up call for the current hype. The appeal to Silicon Valley tycoons is obvious – own the platform, own the data, own access to the users. Its appeal to real users is far from clear.

“By 2040 there will be discrete applications of VR and AR. It is unlikely that there will be a single platform. More convenient video conferencing is likely to be more attractive to users than avatar-based interactions outside of games and game-like social spaces. XR's current association with cryptocurrency hype and NFT huckstering and "blockchain" nonsense points to an overlapping vaporware Venn diagram. Like the blockchain-crypto-NFT hype, the Metaverse hype addresses real-world use cases, and different pitches fall on a spectrum from initial hype to stock inflation and pyramid schemes. 🇧🇷

"People's willingness and ability to invent new rituals, meanings, symbols and habits takes time to develop"

Riel Miller, head of the forecasting department at UNESCO in Paris, wrote: “The holodeck as a way to simulate life is not a new idea. As with today's reluctant and enforced urge for virtual gatherings, people's willingness and ability to invent new rituals, meanings, symbols, and habits is slow to evolve. As with any frontier, the conditions of open access, the flow of birth, death, entry and exit, determine what happens with the available resources. If our imaginations remain atrophied and we continue to insist on denying our symbiosis with our tools, then the metaverse will remain 'marginal', even if the investment in time and money is relatively high."

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (22)Alternative idea: A "hyperverse" where people with "tools for thinking" can share

Stowe Boyd, a futuristic consulting expert on technological evolution and the future of work, said: “We could think of the idea of ​​the metaverse as engaging in the miniaturization of our experience of the world. Recent interest in her is a technoid fantasy, something like an obsession with migrating into space. Both share an underlying desire to leave latent concerns about social and ecological "space" to an imaginary community (à la Benedict Anderson) that rejects nationalism or shared concerns about the state of the planet and its inhabitants.

"While I believe that some elements of the Metaverse vision - like augmented reality, which adds a new dimension to web-based social interaction - will succeed, the broader notion of 'life in the Metaverse' will have no greater appeal than longer periods of time to spend time in a virtual mall. And just like a mall, we'd be inundated with brands like Tom Cruise in the Minority Report movie.

“At the same time, there is hope for a web-centric alternative, a hyperverse, as we have rich computing infrastructure and myriad devices that people can use to share their observations and notes both online and locally. , Also. We saw a glimpse of it at Third Voice in the late 1990s and in today's tools like Hypothes.is. This could also include an interest in so-called ‘thinking tools’ – Notion, Roam and Obsidian.”

It is a "story of raising venture capital for people who are running out of plausible technology to sell".

David Golumbia, Associate Professor of Digital Studies at Virginia Commonwealth University and author of The Politics of Bitcoin, wrote: “The metaverse is a completely undefined concept that is being pushed by meta and venture capitalists to ensure continued funding for their projects. There is nothing. We've already seen the main downsides of VR and even AR technology, and unfortunately the folks promoting the metaverse vehemently dispute what almost everyone sees: the more compelling virtual experiences are, the less people really want to do with them, especially for any length of time.

“Digital technology entrepreneurs have run out of ways to lure the public into buying their equipment, whose destructive potential is becoming more apparent every day. Its reliance on old sci-fi narratives, including those that once proved far more interesting as fiction than fact, is beginning to become a "tell," as is - notably - the interweaving of old VR history with the new history of VR Blockchain .

“VR sometimes makes sense even without blockchain. NFTs and blockchain make no sense. Combined, this makes an effective story for raising venture capital for people who are running out of plausible technology to sell. But most sane people - even those fooled by cryptocurrencies and NFTs - simply look at this recent promotional push with utter incomprehension. There is nothing. Actually less than nothing.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (23)Only players want to live in the metaverse for more than 5 minutes at a time

Paul Jones, Professor Emeritus at the University of North Carolina School of Information and Library Science, said: "I feel like Rocky (the flying squirrel) watching Bullwinkle try one more time to pull a rabbit out of his hat, while asking, 'Again? My growing dissatisfaction with immersive 3D began with the cyclical fads in cinemas - House of Wax, Creature from the Black Lagoon, then Frankenstein and Warhol's Dracula. 🇧🇷 Do these 3D technologies find their best use in horror and sci-fi? Will it be the same in 2040?

“Now I'm sick of immersive VR, whether it's helmets, full rooms, goggles, goggles, or putting your phone on the bridge of your nose. I saw an entire floor of a new campus building dedicated to a supposedly “immersive” flavor of VR that became obsolete before the concrete dried—all three flavors of VR in the project. While VR's "immersiveness" has improved with each iteration, it still hasn't improved enough for mass use or over a long period of time.

“Non-gamers are ready to give up immersive virtual reality in less than five minutes. This hasn't changed much, despite efforts to simplify and reduce the weight of the devices and increase the number of pixels displayed. However, the use cases for augmented reality (AR) are strong. We're already partially using AR in our cars - the screens used in Teslas are a good example - and we're learning how to make the AR experience safe and reliable without getting lost in immersion.

“Short version: The Metaverse will be more expanded than immersive. The fleshly life will have an indication of the goal, but the goal will not be a substitute for the embodied life.”

Today's setting will be amplified and expanded as the metaverse takes off

Mario Morino, President of the Morino Institute and Co-Founder of Venture Philanthropy Partners, commented, “Look at the gains and scares in today's environment and expand and expand by projecting to 2040. My expectation is that it will become a natural habitat to work, learn, share experiences, have fun and entertain and have a "lived digital experience".

"It will be another level of immersion, building on the earlier heights of the internet: email, web 2.0, gaming, mobile/smartphones, social media, AI/ML [machine learning], etc.

“However, the power of community in the metaverse (collective activity) will bring new gains and even more ominous risks to society. There will be a lack of editorial and informational customs and protocols, a lack of capacity to combat disinformation (from text to deepfakes), very few gatekeepers for checks and balances, and the digital actor “loner” will become an even more disproportionate power in the Stemming from the increased externality”.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (24)Current proposals for the Metaverse are “a concept looking for a market”

Andre Brock, associate professor of literature, media and communications at Georgia Tech and advisor to the Center for Critical Race Digital Studies, said, "AT&T developed the videophone in the 1960s and the videophone in the 1990s. Neither initiative was commercially successful ., Despite all the hype, while communication devices, networks and our technical know-how have progressed far beyond these primitive videophone terminals, the metaverse, as defended by Facebook/Meta, is still a "concept looking for a market." “.

“By my count, this is the third iteration of a 'graphics-intensive, computer-generated' multi-user virtual environment, including ActiveWorlds and Second Life. Both spaces still exist, but our fleeting, ahistorical media (driven by the hype surrounding venture capital and the tech industry) barely acknowledges that metaverses have been attempted before. These include virtual worlds such as Habbo Hotel and Club Penguin or massively multiplayer online games such as EVE Online, World of Warcraft and EverQuest.

“Each iteration of a multi-user virtual environment — including the current speculative Facebook/Meta offering — requires users to buy expensive equipment, expensive broadband connections, and have disposable income. Existing computing and connectivity inequalities are exacerbated by this new initiative – minority groups are never the ideal users of technology or finance.

“Much of the current passion for the term is fueled by Facebook/Meta's dominant market position as the largest social network, leading to speculation that this tie will easily transition users from Facebook's largely text-based platform to an untested platform. at scale with demanding hardware and software requirements. History suggests a different conclusion.”

The IEEE report encourages ways to ethically build XR for better social outcomes

John C. Havens, Exekutivdirektor der Global Initiative on the Ethics of Autonomous and Intelligent Systems am Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) undMonica Tomorrow, Senior Distinguished Architect for Emerging Technologies at Syniverse, led a team of IEEE experts in creating a paper and program entitled "Ethically Aligned Design," which includes a chapter on augmented reality ethics. They wrote: "Aspects of this work may offer a deep, imaginative focus on answers to your augmented reality question. It highlights the following important points:

'The growing proliferation of augmented and virtual environments should expand our collective human knowledge. Our sense of physical identity, time, and agency will be subject to entirely new paradigms, where the portals to these experiences can be controlled by interests other than citizens. This raises a number of ethical and philosophical questions about the collection, control, and use of user data within these ecosystems. As these capabilities transition from external headphones to much more subtle built-in sensory enhancements and embedded or implanted devices, the deployments could become dangerous. In order to avoid negative consequences in XR systems enhanced by autonomous and intelligent systems (A/IS), society must proactively search for solutions, set standards and apply methods that can improve access, innovation and governance, to ensure human well-being. By adopting a pragmatic introspection lens, society can envision a positive outcome for all of the inspiring and immersive realities humanity will encounter in the near future..'

“The remainder of this important 29-page report is detailed, with separate chapters detailing important issues related to the future of social interactions, mental health, education and training, arts and privacy, access and control. We note that it is critical to promote full education on how the unique nature of XR can impact social interactions, including avoiding widespread negative social consequences.

“As the report points out, two key forces are at play in shaping the 'reality' that individuals encounter in their use of interactive media: the commercial imperative to provide services that generate revenue, and the public's desire to use technology to this needs to facilitate . In the last decade, the user has become the product in online environments. So the upcoming XR world could also look like today's closed communities programmed and controlled by commercial interests. Below are some of our many recommendations (read the report for full details):

  • An integrated XR awareness framework for technology developers and end users should be co-created by policy makers and manufacturers within a framework based on societal consensus. Such an awareness framework would be implemented by entities developing the technologies with the aim of standardizing education and literacy in relation to the products.
  • Ethical design should be an integral part of the conversation on any project that develops public domain XR products. Organizations working with immersive technologies should develop a multidisciplinary approach that involves social scientists and humanities scientists in the development of technology products to identify ethical concerns in early iterations.
  • All technology developers, regardless of their position in the product ecosystem, have a responsibility to provide users with clear information and explanations about the augmented, virtual, mediated, or multimedia experiences that users will be immersed in. Such awareness initiatives should involve social scientists, humanities scholars, marketers and practitioners - including emotional intelligence or positive psychology - as well as policy makers and manufacturers.
  • Users of a virtual realm must first be guided through a tutorial that teaches them how to exit the virtual experience quickly at any time, and be fully informed of the nature of their algorithmic tracking and mediation. Users' personal information may not be used in the context of this experience without their prior consent.
  • Users must have clear assurances that their virtual and physical identities can and will be protected in virtual worlds. This applies to accidental data collection by XR systems to better customize experiences and technologies. Existing user data consent statements and best practices need to be updated to address specific user vulnerability issues in XR environments.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (25)"The features created in the virtual world will increase the isolation effect of the real world."

Luis GermanRodriguez Leal, professor and researcher at Universidad Central de Venezuela and advisor on technology for development, said: “It is entirely possible that the metaverse could be used to propagate new forms of individual and collective slavery. The Metaverse is another step in the evolution of the bubble created around every user of technological platforms to encourage and often manipulate their behavior – with or without their consent.

“Only users of these systems with the necessary digital literacy will be able to evade the ever-increasing onslaught of the technological avalanche fueling the metaverse. Unfortunately for mankind, there are very few very educated users. This is leading to a worrying growth and spread of modern slavery. The virtualized reality expressed in the metaverse will tend to establish itself as a reference, just as the so-called “influencers” are currently considered as such, with no discernible criteria other than the number of followers and the consumption profile of this audience.

“Functionalities created in the virtual world will reinforce the isolation effect of the real world and the boundaries between one and the other will become increasingly confusing to the unsuspecting user. The vast majority are by far the least educated and most likely will not question the alternatives that will exist in the proposed metaverse.

“Let's remember that each of these environments will be shaped to match the specific characteristics of the people in their user profile, which will convince everyone that this is the universe they want. Blockchain-based products will bolster the security and privacy of each person's individual preferences, but at the same time result in users disregarding the underlying goals of the algorithms that regulate the functioning of these platforms.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (26)“People still need direct connections, physical presence and touch”

Kelly Quinn, Associate Clinical Professor of Communication at the University of Illinois-Chicago, replied: “The pandemic has crystallized for many the very real possibilities of digital tools for interaction and transaction over time and distance. However, as we continue to develop our skills for a metaverse, our current experiences show the very real benefit of physical proximity and socializing.

“Out of sheer necessity, we have evolved faster and more efficiently on many fronts – businesses are now trading virtually in ways that were once considered impractical; Distance learning is now commonplace for many students (unfortunately for the occasional end of a snowy day); and telemedicine appointments are a daily reality. But these possibilities do not achieve their goals with the same efficiency and energy as face-to-face interaction, and the practical realities and limitations of living in virtual spaces are obvious.

  • Organizations that rely on mentoring models find that the formal, planned nature of Zoom management falls short in the training and development of future managers.
  • Teachers feel that very valuable aspects of peer learning that occur naturally in a classroom do not occur in online classrooms and that the ability to engage young learners across time and space is limited.
  • Even physicians find it difficult to fully assess diseases in virtual environments, and the ability to offer ongoing treatments (which often depend on more detailed patient assessment) is still limited.

"Humans still need direct connections, physical presence and touch - these are important clues for understanding an imperfect world. People often present themselves at their best in digital environments; the consequence is the assumption that such perfection is reality. Humans still need connections, physical presence and touch - these are important clues to understanding in an imperfect world. The realization that humans and the self are imperfect is a big reason why the Metaverse will not replace our need for face-to-face interaction.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (27)"When fractal metaverses emerge, they will be like cable ducts: specialized, expanding, and consolidating disparities."

Susan Crawford, a Harvard Law School professor and a former special assistant for science, technology and innovation policy in the Obama White House, commented, "A truly interesting and vibrant metaverse would require a generosity of mind that I'm not convinced is capable of." will develop in the coming years. .

“It was the simplicity and ease of adoption of the TCP/IP Internet protocol, aided by the vigorous efforts and resources of the US government, that forced the emergence of the global Internet.

"Meta's view of the metaverse is that it's all about her - her business plan, her identity, her ties, her incentives. This is not something that all sections of US society, let alone a global community, will be (literally) interested in. And when fractal metaverses emerge, they will be like cable channels: specialized, reinforcing and consolidating inequality, and bundled together by a few aggregators trying to overcharge.

"My dream is for the internet to be accessible to more people at a reasonable cost and enable presence at a distance - that's the metaverse we should be striving for."

Neuland: "How can you tell a machine from a human being?"

Garth Graham, longtime leader of Telecommunities Canada, said: “We are breaking new ground when it comes to how our relationships and connections shape our identity. This is worrying. I want to share a passage written by Stephen Marche in 'Mimicking consciousness: On the present and future of natural language processing’ posted on Jun 23, 2021:

“The shocking thing about artificial intelligence processing natural language is not that we are creating new consciousnesses, but that we are creating machines that we cannot distinguish from consciousnesses. The question will not be "Can machines think?" The question will not even be, "How can you create a machine that mimics a person?" The question will be, "How can you tell a machine from a person?"

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (28)"How will our data be used against us in the metaverse by 2040?"

Lee Warren McKnight, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Innovation at Syracuse University's School of Information Studies, replied: "With the estimated 3 billion gamers worldwide by 2023, reaching half a billion immersed metaverses by 2040 is probably a low estimate. First though - to state the obvious - the current hype and confusion of the metaverse (and the venture capitalists who follow trends and pump heaps of money into a bunch of idiotic ideas connected to the metaverse) are largely driven by the PR game . Facebook's highly successful "dog walk" move to get people talking about the metaverse instead of its invasive privacy business model and repeat offender status for legal and ethical violations. That brings us to the bigger question: How will our data be used against us in the Metaverse by 2040?

“A major downside to our immersive future is that privacy-by-design breaches are being overwhelmed by platform companies like Facebook (Meta). Their business models rely on the sale of user data to advertisers and/or business intelligence/political intelligence companies like Cambridge Analytica, who use it to manipulate the public – for example, influencing their purchasing behavior or lured into obsessive extremist interests and disinformation campaigns.

"What's happened so far in that regard is a no-brainer compared to the truly dystopian 'Blade Runner 3.0' that one can envision in 2040 when people become much more immersed in digital worlds. When they're not just relaxing, playing games, or interacting/sharing with friends and family and random strangers, and bots are gathering data on social media. When they spend more time and invest more in themselves when the metaverse is also the workplace/future of work. The blurring of mental and physical boundaries can be very ugly.

“Already, the rise in the percentage of college-age youth with mental health problems, the rise in suicides and drug addiction are being driven by a complex set of economic, social and political factors, the least important of which is the pandemic. Facebook's own - sorry - meta-research data showed that time spent on still-non-immersive social media is a leading cause of stress and serious mental illness. Assuming the trendline and market/business model of data security and privacy intrusion by design continues in the metaverse, by 2040 we will all be living in a much sicker world. And the disease-by-design metaverse will be at least partly to blame.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (29)Each new tool expands horizons and deals damage

Frank Kaufman, Chair of the Twelve Gates Foundation, said: "This shift will come as an increasing number of 'apps' and convenience tools offer users 'two options': 'conventional' or 'immersive'. The tools will only be offered as "immersive", but that will be for an elite - the "informed" types like early cryptocurrency traders. It will function as a kind of cult status symbol. Most people still aren't comfortable with tools and apps that require a steep learning curve or clunky hardware to do simple things.

“All this will change more and more. The "immersive" life becomes more user-friendly through the natural function of corporate greed. And as the meta becomes more user-friendly, it spreads by word of mouth (the guy next to you at the bar points out that it's not that difficult), more people are trying it, and the world is collapses without thinking about it. Increase usage and dependence on metaverse and life functions. Of course, every tool and invention since the dawn of time has broadened the horizons of human skill and creativity. However, every tool and invention since the dawn of time has also increased the ability to inflict more efficient and widespread harm on other people and nature.

  • It will reinforce human division into new categories.
  • This will reinforce the dystopian inequalities of "have" and "have not".
  • This will further desensitize people and take them further out of touch with their true selves (their divinity and humanity).
  • This makes dealing damage "less real".
  • This makes careless and stupid users easier targets to control and manipulate.

"For most people, it will have little or no impact on how we feel about our world and about ourselves. The advent and slow market expansion of this technology will not affect people's abundant ability to live unreflectively, and no effort to understand our relationship and purpose with nature. If anything, this will further sink the general consciousness into worthlessness, self-diminishing distractions, and obsessive acquisition and the kind of "learning curve addiction" that typically drives gamers.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (30)A deeper dive leads to unexpected consequences, opportunities and threats

David Porush, writer, longtime professor at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and author of "The Soft Machine: Cybernetic Fiction", wrote: "It will develop the experimental and the sensory. The path of generating greater fidelity, speed, range, sensation and range for the exchange of subjectivities (technologically mediated telepathy, so to speak) continues.

  • This will have unexpected consequences for human intimacy and connection.
  • It will create new opportunities for global unity and tribal strife, for total control and individual freedom, and for the effective expression of love and hate.
  • It will provide tremendous new opportunities for buying and selling and advertising and big data/big commerce feedback loops between desire and gratification and the willing sacrifice of privacy for convenient ways to scratch our itch.
  • It will spawn new types of cyber art.
  • In short, it will not move the needle towards redemptive, visionary, inflated claims to change human morality. This has always been the vaporware of media revolutions. You need a different kind of message for that.”

How will governments respond to the multinational nature of the metaverse?

Markus Jamison, a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute who was previously Sprint's Regulatory Policy Manager, commented, “The direction of the metaverse will depend on how governments respond. The metaverse has the potential to be an online society with distinct cultures, economies, and governance systems related to those of the offline world, but optimized around the interests of users and developers. Such evolution would improve humanity and free us from some of the limitations of the immutable laws of physics and our DNA, but not without some painful realizations about the meaning of those immutable laws and the loss of long-term benefits of time spent in this mode. offline. World. It is likely that some offline governments will recognize that important activity is taking place beyond their reach and will respond by attempting to create laws to regulate the metaverse. This is hampered by the multinational nature of the metaverse, but offline governments are powerful forces and may have the ability to constrain some societies as they attempt to thrive in the metaverse.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (31)If it goes the way of the Web and Web 2.0, "Web3 will deepen the inequalities"

Aymar Jean Christian, associate professor of communications at Northwestern University and advisor to the Center for Critical Race Digital Studies, wrote: “Technological advancement is only one component of social change. Cultural, political and economic factors are equal or more important for the development of Web3.

“If it follows the same path as the original Web and Web 2.0 – with corporations and unregulated investors being allowed to own as much digital property as possible, where users lack public support and regulation for data, device and property ownership – Web3 can change the power imbalances we see today.

“These inequalities are racial, gender, nationally bound (e.g., Western/US-centric), and replicate pre-digital power dynamics (colonialism, white supremacy, heteropatriarchy, etc.). Web3 has the potential to transform power dynamics, but only if those driving technological change are willing to do so.”

The expert answers to our questions about the future of the metaverse reported in this section are slightly longer than those in the previous section and generally have a more panoramic perspective.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (32)"It becomes even more difficult to separate the 'real world' from the many mirror worlds that we become involved and — yes — addicted to."

Sam Adams, general artificial intelligence researcher at Metacognitive Technology, formerly a distinguished engineer at IBM, commented, "Cognitive immersion can occur whenever a mind is intensely focused on one thing and shutting out everything else. Musicians experience this, as do athletes, artists, assembly line workers, mothers, writers and computer programmers. In all cases, it requires a focus and the involvement of some senses and muscles. The stronger the focus, the greater the sensory involvement, the shorter the latency between muscle contraction and sensory response, the easier it is to enter this state of immersion. As a college student in the 1980's, I became totally immersed in the original adventure game, The Colossal Cave. Intrigued by the various challenges, I ignored hunger and exhaustion from lack of sleep as best I could. Simply put, it was captivating and addicting.

“As XR technology and content evolves over the next 20 years, I anticipate that this cognitive immersion experience will become widely available on-demand to anyone with access to the bandwidth and sensor/effector interface equipment. As with the original PC wave, then the desktop/internet/browser wave, and the mobile internet wave, the XR wave is driven by device access, bandwidth and content. Hopefully device access won't be an issue as the XR will be delivered to human senses in 2030 via ubiquitous wearable devices, likely in the form of glasses. Broadband beyond 5G and low-Earth orbit satellites like StarLink will provide the low-latency bandwidth needed to trigger full sensory immersion.

“Then that leaves content, which will largely be a predictable mix of passive (music and movies) and active (social, gaming, sports) offerings. But the rest of the Metaverse ecosystem, the massive cloud data centers with their daily feeds of exabytes of data, and the trillions of Internet of Things (IoT) devices will usher in the kind of content we're only hinting at in today's XR experience . : David Gelernter's "Mirror Worlds". And just as it is now almost impossible to engage in modern life and society without hours of daily interaction on the internet, it is becoming even more difficult to separate the “real world” from the multiple mirror worlds in which we will engage and – yes – addicted to.

“Strengths include broader life experiences and the development and nurturing of personal relationships, particularly with those we are unlikely to ever meet 'in real life'. Remote work, and especially collaborative remote work, will be greatly improved.

“The negative may sound like a broken record, but less and less life will be spent in the flesh with other people, breathing the same air, feeling the physical closeness of companions and crowds. A larger proportion of the population will choose to live as exclusively digitally as possible, with minimal satisfaction of their physical existence and needs to allow maximum time “in verse”. Prime examples of this are the “sleep, eat, play” people who have no ambition to spend more time “in play”.

"Change the world? It will reinforce the existing cross-border unification and hyper-Balkanization of society that we have witnessed over the past 10 years with the global mobile internet. change our life? For those connected, more time away from real life.” , but it will also inspire a desire to unwind, at least for retreats and vacations. Look for "Faraday retreats," which use technology to digitally isolate guests from "verse." At the extremes are Faraday communities (anti-digital communes), where people have chosen to live their lives in the “real world” unconnected to the “verse.”

“But in the end, people are still people. Even the highly unlikely full-brain interface that no longer requires physical senses, experiences are still modulated by the human interface: eyes, ears, touch, taste, smell, movement, language, etc. Internet to provide anonymous but irrefutable authentication and transactions, including Content protection (like the fledgling Web3). But your anonymity when enforced by XR will create a different kind of trust where you can trust the transaction but never really know the other party. Relying on transactions alone leaves behind many of the social notions of reputation and branding and currently allows for illegal/shady parties (e.g. labeled with their true purpose.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (33)The future environment, for most, will likely be "some sort of everyday mixed reality system that allows the physical and digital worlds to intersect."

Immer Cascio, a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute for the Future, replied: "By 2040, technologies that fall under the umbrella of the 'metaverse' will likely be ubiquitous, even if the term 'metaverse' has fallen out of favor. Fully immersive virtual environments that are distinct from the physical environment will likely be casual tools like we see in games today. More often, we're probably using some kind of everyday mixed reality system that allows for an overlap of the physical and digital worlds.

“There are several reasons why a non-physical full immersion environment is used in a more limited way, but the main reason is sensory limitation. While image and sound can be reproduced with supernatural clarity, touch, balance, smell/taste and other bodily senses that are outside of visual and auditory range are not immersed in the same way. (For the sake of this discussion, I'm not talking about direct neural interfaces -- the technology is plausible at this time, but it has ramifications and caveats well beyond "metaverse" talk.)

“I believe we will affirm that physical sensations are necessary for a truly immersive experience and that prolonged disconnection from the body will lead to physical and mental health issues. On the other hand, mixed reality technologies (mixed, augmented reality) that allow physical and digital sensory input to be experienced simultaneously are likely to be much more widespread. This could even include experiences where all visual and auditory inputs are digital - but work in conjunction with the real environment (e.g. decor and virtual images for clothing, rooms, faces, etc.).

“Weakened versions of this technology can be extremely useful for both work and personal enjoyment. We already have tightly focused iterations of this technology deployed; This 2040 version would be much richer and more environment-aware (e.g. it wouldn't require beacons showing the size of a room like current VR technology).

“There are two key concerns that arise from this type of technology. The first is more obvious, the second more subtle, but ultimately it's a bigger problem. By definition, mixed reality allows the imposition of digital imagery over physical reality. The potential for abuse is clear, from censorship to pornography without consent. The technologies required to monitor such abuse are even more complex than trying to block malicious Facebook images and text, and would likely be just as ineffective. The more subtle problem would also apply, at least in part, to all forms of metaverse technology: closure in terms of classical economics.

“Things that are freely visible in 'real' reality (architecture, clothing design, street art) can be locked into a metaverse system so that only people with the right token can see the 'true' shape of the building or whole Details of the dress. The nightmare iteration of this is that essentially everything has to be paid for to try it - it's a world where everything is an NFT.

“We cannot allow legitimate concerns like this to force us to marginalize technology. The ability to see the world more deeply (look closely at the plant and look at its taxonomic description, or how it circulates water, or its life cycle, or its overall carbon sequestration) to allow creative people to embrace the surreal with to merge with the physical (giants lurking in the distance, or clothing that echoes of itself, or tattoos that comment on what the wearer is doing) and even to eliminate visual clutter (and you know that ad blockers will be the first thing many people install) can be a source of joy. But need to subscribe to reality? No thank you.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (34)"We're going in headlong without all the security measures we need."

Avi Bar-Zeev, an XR pioneer who played a key role in the development and creation of HoloLens technology, Google Earth and Second Life and has worked with Microsoft, Google, Apple, Amazon, Disney VR and others, has agreed to share several portions of his letter and talk about the Metaverse as their contribution to this report.

In a November 2021 presentation at the Augmented World Expo, Bar-Zeev predicted:

“AR will be bigger than 'the metaverse', not in terms of volume, but in terms of ubiquity and user experience. The fact that we might be wearing our AR glasses 18 hours a day makes this more personal to us. The same interfaces that work for us in the real world will work for us in the virtual world, so we'll apply the same ideas to any reality in any world.

“The fact is that we want to interact with personal things. So if the Metaverse is essentially the next generation of the internet, and XR hardware is essentially the browser and we are the browsers, then AR-style user experiences might be the most common user interface.

"That's why AR goes beyond what people talk about today when they talk about the metaverse. In fact, there will be states of presence and co-presence. I propose "coreality" as the best way to describe the collection of spaces in which we can be present or co-present. We are working to create the XR Guild to create a set of principles for XR developers to own and use for better outcomes for humanity.”

In an interview with Spatial Reality in February 2022, Bar-Zeev said:

"My biggest concern with all of this is that without all the security measures we need, we're going headlong into it. In this new world there is no regulatory power other than for-profit corporations with their own territories. There is no power to say, "This is how we should behave, and this is how we do with the small percentage of people who misbehave." And unfortunately, a single bad actor can make thousands or millions of people suffer.

"It's really important to get it right before we all rush in and say we're going to live there. It's far from ready for us to live there. There are no rules. Everyone rushes to grab whatever pickaxes and gold they can find on the ground. 🇧🇷

"What's the harm in moving slowly? What's the downside to being really careful? It may cost us a little more money up front. But the cost of getting it wrong, the cost of making a mistake, the cost of hurting people or missing people? That's huge...

“Privacy is crucial. And honestly, the biggest threat to privacy is the ad-based business model. It's not that advertising is bad per se. Advertising generally only provides us with information or creative expression and is largely protected by the First Amendment. The problem is the way our personal data is used to deliver advertising. What I advocate, and other more prominent people advocate, is that we need to regulate the business model, not the expression of the ads themselves.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (35)“If XR has eye tracking and emotional analysis, the computer will better understand how we think and feel about everything around us. It will know more about how we feel about the people in our lives. You will know how we think about political issues. Will be able to know our emotional triggers. Whatever our triggers, companies will know how to put us in a much less rational state, which is the perfect state to leave us vulnerable to all kinds of influences.

“By tweaking the system and gearing it towards maximizing ad revenue, we are turning people into data mines rather than free-thinking individuals. If we take this to the extreme, we end up losing our autonomy, we lose our ability to think for ourselves because the systems are pushing our buttons to make profit.

“The best computer interface of the future is one that knows us well enough to help us get our jobs done. If companies keep exploiting us, we just have to go down there and say, 'No, we can't do that. It's very dangerous.' Let's be careful and human-centric in these things. Let's respond to the negative aspects we see today. We can't ignore them and just hope that things will get better with time. Action is the only way to bring these things to the best results.”

And in a column he wrote for uxdesign.cc, Bar-Zeev predicted:

“Imagine that in 10 to 20 years. Each of us will have a pair of contact lenses capable of generating AR and VR at will (except perhaps for touch, taste and smell). Until then, the words “AR,” “VR,” and “meta” will likely be relegated to academic writing and legacy corporate branding in favor of something more modern, now, and organic. Open your eyes and you will see real 3D holograms seamlessly merged with real objects and people. Close your eyes (or eliminate natural light) and you could be practically anywhere else. The sound should also blend in seamlessly. But AR and VR are just two points on a spectrum. If you start with AR and add enough virtual stuff to distract you from reality, you're effectively in VR.

“When you add digitized 3D “twins” or otherwise live camera feeds to your real-world environment in VR, you're essentially back in AR, or at least a simulation of it. VR basically removes the most common limitations of reality: location and travel, physics, sometimes even time where hours feel like minutes and we can travel into the historical past or imaginary future. We can also pretend to be someone else (or maybe more of ourselves?) in VR to temporarily remove the limitations of our birth: gender, appearance, and even mutable aspects of our personality. We can also gain "superpowers" within these worlds, such as flight, invisibility, and content creation. At some point they will all just call it “abilities”.

“On the way to this ubiquity, power imbalances inevitably lead to social conflict. Without the normal constraints of reality or other ways to defend ourselves, we are more vulnerable to other people's powers, personalities, and intentions. Today, as we increase our individual power beyond prose and memes to experiences of potent superpowers, we also increase the volume of negative expression. This is not an arms race that anyone can "win." Actions positive or negative. And some will.

“What AR is really doing is a new way to see and interact with the real world and the people in it. It can improve the signal-to-noise ratio of our daily lives by filtering out what we don't need to see and focusing on what is most relevant and impactful to us, individually, contextually, based on what matters most . 🇧🇷

“Mark Zuckerberg recently touted a desired feature of his company's future augmented reality glasses as the ability to have other conversations while talking to someone face-to-face. Let's also imagine that the glasses can secretly retrieve the social media profiles, criminal records and posted vacation photos of people we know. These particular traits are distinctly antisocial, even sociopathic, and give the user much more power over others.

“If the goal is to add presence and connection, distracting yourself with information and social anxiety about the content on each other's AR screens will have the opposite result. However, when glasses monitor our own individual emotions and let us know when we are becoming overly emotional or less present (e.g. lost in past memories or worries about the future), they offer us a tool to be more present and grounded, and more present, better connected to others around us. Why haven't we heard of this as a feature before?

“How we shape those experiences will largely determine how that plays out. Are we adding useless layers of saturation to reality, or are we helping to remove noise? People with more money than common sense often have bad experiences and occasionally wonder why they aren't working. I hope that we can all learn from these mistakes and improve ourselves.

"We hope that the market and other social institutions will help get rid of bad ideas quickly enough and ensure a better future for all of us. The best way is to find and fund the best designers now to proactively build that future.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (36)Despite concerns, "the metaverse will eventually unite us," as other mediums throughout history have done

Stephen Downes, an expert at the National Research Council of Canada's Digital Technologies Research Center, said: "Opportunities for fraud and fraud will abound. In addition, there is a risk that an incomprehensible shadow economy will develop. It will be difficult for people to come to terms with the idea that something can be digital and "real", and despite reassurances, it will be very difficult not to believe that they will just cease to exist. The danger here is that people may mistake very real things – such as digital currency debt – for not being real and suffer harmful consequences. To make matters worse, digital objects can also contain artificial intelligence.

“By 2040 (probably much earlier) it will no longer be possible for most people to differentiate between avatars representing humans and AIs. The proliferation of AIs will allow actors with more resources to simulate a much larger online presence (just like we've seen with social media bots). Many of them will be ridiculous (there will be the Metaverse equivalent of the Nigerian prince), but there will also be serious cases of identity theft and worse. It may be too early to call for specific laws, but it's not too early to develop frameworks outlining what the acceptable and unacceptable uses of the metaverse will be, both legally and commercially.

“All that said, despite the risks, we will not resist developing, entering, and using the metaverse. It will be very difficult to enjoy media entertainment on a flat screen after watching an amazing movie or sporting event. Today's games still aren't as compelling in VR, but as the UI improves, the game will feel a lot smoother and more natural, making traditional on-screen gameplay with a controller or keyboard feel awkward. Just as it's difficult to get up from the TV or turn off a video game marathon, it will be difficult to turn off the controller. Psychologists will surely talk about the dissociation disorders that afflict people after long VR sessions.

“Even so, the metaverse will eventually bring us together. Just as radio and television created the shared experience, just as social media created the shared memes, we will find that we share our world in deeper and more meaningful ways with people (and ideas and representations) that we shared before we connected couldn't have imagined. Reaching out isn't always comfortable (as we've certainly learned!), but being closer leads to deeper dialogue, greater understanding, and more empathy. No, this is not universal – the divisions in our global society are also widening.

“We need to make sure these divisions are not encouraged and monetized like some social media is doing today because the experience will be so much more personal and the damage caused by these divisions is far greater. In addition, since digital resources are not as scarce as physical resources, there will be more opportunities for people in disadvantaged positions and societies as long as they have access to the network.

“We have seen manufacturing evolve with the development of a global supply chain infrastructure around the world. Thanks to the global internet, people all over the world can offer digital services. A person doesn't have to own a factory or farm to become rich in a digital world. However, this requires a common digital infrastructure. If the inhabitants of the metaverse are only tenants, they will likely be excluded from any prosperity the metaverse can create.

“Decentralization is the great promise of the metaverse, especially some of the enabling technologies like blockchain networks and self-sovereign identity. In a truly decentralized system, each of us can enjoy more autonomy to shape our own lives and world. If we are really moving towards a world with less regulation and supervision, it must be very different from today's world. Personal autonomy and self-government can only thrive in a world where authoritarianism and coercion are difficult, and where people are protected from the harmful effects of inequality and exclusion.

“Without mechanisms to ensure a reasonable level of personal freedom and prosperity, we can very quickly enter a dystopian world. Without regulation, not only governments but corporations, schools, gangs, and even individuals can use their freedoms to oppress others. The rise of the metaverse will lead to renewed discussion of rights. Will this discussion focus in part on diversity, equity and inclusion and reflect current dialogue arising from events in the physical world, but will it also reflect the need to enable people to participate fully in a digital society? Topics such as access, consent, transparency and openness, ownership and membership will shape the major debates of the 2020s and 2030s, among others.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (37)The greatest impact will be related to the question: what does it mean to be human?

Chris Labash, Associate Professor of Communications and Innovation at Carnegie Mellon University, wrote: "Remember that part in 'The Matrix' where Agent Smith and Neo are fighting on the subway and the train is speeding towards them and Smith says, 'Got it She belongs? That noise, Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability.” This is the metaverse today, and the likelihood that by 2040 it will be real, ubiquitous, and normalized. I currently have a student research team that is creating the Investor's Guide to the Metaverse. a student conducting an independent study of creating and managing products in the metaverse. A friend of mine just started an NFT asset management company. [Here are] my top five [metaverse questions], starting with the most important:

5.0 – The most important question about the metaverse is its fundamental ontological impact on what it means to be “human”. Does this make us more civilized? Will this present an opportunity for "expanded humanity"? What will happen when AI-enabled "entities" can be part of the metaverse? Every major leap in technology is inextricably linked to fundamental human issues. As we progress, the questions become more difficult, the answers more difficult to put into practice.

4.0 – What about diversity, equity and inclusion? The Metaverse presents a great opportunity for certain groups to set up safe spaces where they can share experiences, desires, and dreams, and then have the tools to make them happen. It can also, as we have already seen, be a dark alley where the most evil elements of our global society do the most evil things, often without consequences. It could potentially level the playing field for those marginalized in the physical world. And notice that I say "physical" world versus "real" world. That the metaverse is digital doesn't make it any less real; In fact, by 2040, many people will see it as as real or even more real than "physical" space. The fine line between the physical universe and the metaverse is potentially very empowering. I taught on the Second Life platform years ago and it was interesting that people with physical disabilities have their avatars reflect those disabilities rather than depicting a "perfect" character.

3.0 – Will the Metaverse promote social inclusion or social isolation equally? Both are likely. A potential problem is the possibility of over-participation. In the early days of Nintendo 64, Wall Street retailers stayed at home to play GoldenEye instead of showing up for work. The Metaverse will be even more addictive. The Metaverse can also be a safe place for extremely shy or introverted individuals to interact with others on their own schedules and terms. The less obvious: Currently, 37% of 12-17 year olds have been bullied online, 30% more than once and over 50% of LGBTQ+ youth have been bullied. The Metaverse can exacerbate and/or help mitigate this.

2.0 – What role will government play? When it comes to how real the metaverse will be on a global scale, consider the possibilities. As I write this, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has intensified and support for Ukraine is global and unprecedented. Fast forward to 2040: If such a conflict took place in the world of an interconnected metaverse, imagine the power of seeing millions of blue and yellow clad digital humans all gathered in a vast open space to lend their support to demonstrate for Ukraine. Now combine this visual support with digital sanctions – economic and otherwise; Sharing real-time, blockchain-verified information outside of any government's control Sharing real-time, crowd-sourced information on Russian troop deployments, supplies and logistical issues, Ukraine's humanitarian needs and fundraising and other efforts to obtain aid to those in need... and you begin to see the power and possibility of a world where the metaverse has become an integral part of everyday life, intertwined with physical reality that allows for instantaneous action and reaction. We will also see “digital alliances” emerge, as we see in the response to the invasion of Russia: cross-governmental financial, media and social sector groups that can exert enormous pressure. We will also likely see the emergence of “digital states”. If Facebook were a country, its population would now surpass that of China. The Metaverse will be much larger (and more participatory) than Facebook. That's a lot of power.

1.0 - Finally, one of the most basic questions people will have is "Can I trust this?". Participation in the metaverse requires trust, trust requires governance, governance requires accountability, and accountability requires redress. How can this be accomplished and consistently achieved in an entity owned by no one? Will people not only participate, but continue to participate in the Metaverse? A potentially powerful attribute is that people turn to the metaverse for "trusted" communications; State- or group-sponsored misinformation, misinformation, and information terrorism can be mitigated through the real-time public verification enabled by a blockchain-powered metaverse.

“There are so many other areas for discussion: How will the infrastructure of the metaverse be used to make business, government and everything else faster, more efficient and more accessible? Will there be the metaverse equivalent of bilateral trade, which research says reduces conflict? What microverses will the metaverse consist of? Will it be a technical or truly democratized oligarchy? What will be the economics of this? And perhaps most interestingly, what is the future? What's beyond the meta? What will it help us to become? I'm excited to find out. See you in 2040.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (38)A vision of what a great metaverse—or great metaverses—could look like

David Weinberger, a senior fellow at the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard, wrote: “Let us suppose that the metaverse will be like the web in that it is not made up of a single, hundred percent place, but of many, many, many connected metaverse. There is reason to believe that metaverse is likely to become the main form of Internet participation. The Internet consistently gravitates toward richer media, so metaverse seems like a "natural" next step.

“This assumes that access to affordable bandwidth and low-cost VR/AR devices will increase, and so on. And this, in turn, will continue to widen the digital divide. We therefore need to design metaverse protocols from scratch that scale from fully sensory user experiences to being accessible on low-cost 2D devices. This shouldn't require any third-party add-ons or transformers, nor should it display a webpage on a huge high-resolution screen or on a mobile device.

“Let's make a more optimistic assumption: Metaverse is deeply interoperable in exactly the same way that social media platforms aren't, but websites are. You can open a website on practically any device because websites and web browsers follow protocols. Because of this, any suitable browser can display any uninterrupted webpage and even many broken webpages.

“Let's hope that metaverse interoperability means not only that you can view and interact with a metaverse in any metaverse 'browser', but that metaverses know how to use the information you provide. For example, a metaverse must be able to display your chosen avatar, which you can also use in other metaverses; this would help ensure the continuity of perceived identity in these spaces. Just having the same avatar in the metaverse—especially when you're in third-person view so you can see yourself in the metaverse—will give us a sense of digital persona that we don't typically get on the web or internet to get. It will also allow others to recognize you, allowing for a deeper sense of social connection. Chatting with a player named "Excal143a" is very different from chatting up someone who has a pink frog head and fashion sense.

“But your avatar is the minimum. You must be able to tell each individual metaverse what you want that metaverse to know about you. We've long dreamed of each of us being able to control what different websites and services can know about us, but perhaps efforts like Tim Berners-Lee's Solid will start to take root. There's every reason to believe that metaverses will inherit some of the most important characteristics of games: an emphasis on engagement, gameplay, socialization, and mods.

(Video) Explaining the Metaverse: Everything You Need to Know About Future of the Internet

  1. Engagement: Metaverses will compete for our attention by looking great but also encouraging exploration and participation. Exploitation can manifest itself in that much remains hidden but recognizable. Participation means that we can often build permanent elements in a metaverse, alone or with others. Just look at what's happening with Minecraft.
  2. Gaming: The internet has already eroded the barrier between the serious and the playful. Not only is this often a false wall, but it also keeps people away from exploits that we'd better get into. Metaverse perhaps encourages play in the same way that many discussion forums allow or encourage collaborative humor.
  3. Socializing: There are more invitations to connect when your avatar almost literally bumps into another. Or if that avatar is a creature with a pink frog head carving ellipses into a waterfall. The synchronous and visual nature of metaverses can encourage more social connections, perhaps with more persistence between sessions. I am sure that we will also find new ways to attack and humiliate each other.
  4. Mods: Game developers have learned that mods - maps, potions, rules, etc. created by the customer - not only help them keep their users longer, but also deepen the users' bond with the game. Metaverses with mods? Yes, please!

“All of this could very well change our ideas about the role of the real. Complete metaverses will successfully place us in a world with other people where we meet, discuss and create things that matter. We could say that none of this is "real" (something philosopher David Chalmers disputes in his recent book Reality+), but the more time we spend combing through the metaverses of the internet, the clearer that becomes what matters to us transcends both reality and the media we engage with.

“The Metaverses will make it clearer than ever that what matters most to us is not what is real and therefore independent of us, but what matters to us collectively.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (39)Pay attention to the emergence of "digital twins" and the multiple ways they can be useful

Melissa Sassi, global head of IBM Hyper Protect Accelerator, wrote extensively about several use cases for extended reality: “There are still significant hurdles to overcome for metaverse applications in real-world scenarios; However, I expect the technology will continue to evolve and refine by 2040.

“I see the emergence of the digital twin and personalized ways to bring AI and ML to life through our digital twins: a new definition of 'in real life'. We will continue to rely on technology to help us be more productive, efficient and able to be virtually in remote corners of the world without being there physically. As the digital world continues to intertwine with the physical world, those boundaries will continue to blur for all of us, to the point where we're not even sure to say "in real life" anymore. Real life becomes our digital life and vice versa.

Use case #1: Healthcare– Today, significant effort is expended to treat symptoms rather than achieve prevention, and we all recognize the challenges of sharing patient records between physicians and healthcare networks. A healthcare digital twin can be incredibly powerful when it comes to predictive modeling and data sharing between providers and healthcare facilities, where the patient is more in the driver's seat when it comes to preventive care, bringing their own record with others in charge of care healthcare representatives. An example that inspired this work is BioTwin, an early-stage health technology startup that created a virtual replica that aims to detect and prevent health diseases before they occur. This is an emerging space to watch for health innovation, disruption and putting more information in people's hands to promote good health and well-being, which is one of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals is.

Use Case #2: Education– With digital twins, those who become healthcare professionals or doctors will have better opportunities to practice in virtual environments. Small mistakes and serious side effects that occur during surgery or other types of medical treatment can be reduced by providing students with virtual simulated environments and twins to practice without risking human life. AR, MR and VR as well as the personalization of AI and ML will continue to advance people's educational path, for example in practicing professional development or soft skills such as public speaking, problem solving, critical thinking, teamwork and collaboration and many other skills of the future. Many education technology platforms today focus on certification factors and conversation starters; Imagine a scenario where humans can interact as digital twins in different scenarios to practice real world skills. According to the World Economic Forum, we are in a labor shortage, with 87% of companies around the world anticipating a skills gap, according to The Boston Consulting Group. Employers today say supervisors and frontline workers lack future-ready skills. A digital twin offers significant opportunities for hands-on learning and immersion in the learning journey. Advances may also bring about the Digital Twin Educator in K-12, higher education, and other settings where instruction may be delivered in different ways than in the past, particularly in settings where we learn in digital formats. COVID-19 has taught the education sector that face-to-face learning is not always possible, leading to a significant increase in eLearning investment in the venture capital community.

Use Case #3: Digital and Entrepreneurial Thinking– The same conceptualization can be applied to learning digital skills or entrepreneurship. The lack of digital skills among the population cost 14 G20 countries $11.5 trillion in GDP growth, according to the World Economic Forum. It was also reported that by 2030, the US talent shortage and skills gap could cost the economy $8.5 trillion. Education and development leaders see upskilling, upskilling and reskilling as strategic priorities, reflecting the need for new business models, technology applications, content and curriculum, and practical ways to demonstrate that workers have acquired these skills that can be applied in the workplace , further demonstrated. Bringing the Metaverse to this area could have significant implications. The World Economic Forum's Reskilling Revolution program aims to provide 1 billion people with better education, skills and jobs by 2030. There's no reason this can't be done through augmented reality.

Use Case #4: Entertainment and Gaming- Games will continue to evolve as a space with more interactivity and more engagement with the digital world. The Metaverse also has apps for concerts, which also take digital-only concerts into account. With hundreds of millions of users, Epic Games, the makers of Fortnite, and other game developers have significant opportunities to connect gaming and entertainment to the metaverse. Epic produced a live virtual show for its Fortnight game with EDM producer Marshmello. Over 10 million people "saw" the concert. A virtual concert later followed, starring Travis Scott, which drew an audience of 12.3 million people. In 2021, Fortnite was played by 40% of kids between the ages of 10 and 17, according to the National Research Group. But the rise of virtual entertainment isn't just affecting kids and teens. Also during the pandemic, the annual gathering of adults known as Burning Man went virtual. I'd say it's still up for a vote as to whether the feel, feel, experience and memories of real-world entertainment can be replicated through Metaverse apps. I'm not convinced that the metaverse replaces the feeling of being on the playa in Blackrock City, Nevada.

Use Case #5: Social Life– Although today we are already experimenting and using digital possibilities to “see” other people in remote corners of the earth through video conferences and virtual events, I am 100% sure that these virtual events, even if they take place in AR/VR /MR to avoid repeating the experience "in real life". I recently had the opportunity to rejoin the face-to-face conferencing scene after the long period of isolation caused by COVID-19, and no virtual event over the past two years has been able to replicate this feeling of speaking to real people in real reproduce life and enjoy what the physical world has to offer. Who knows? Perhaps future innovations in the Metaverse space will change my mind, but for now, keep my “real life” social interaction high on the list of things to look for versus Metaverse interactions. I'd say it's still up for a vote as to whether the feel, feel, experience and memories of real-world entertainment can be replicated through Metaverse apps.

Use Case #6: Culture, Arts and Travel- Extended reality applications will create significant opportunities to make cultural experiences and the arts accessible to all. These experiences can be defined in any chronology. Through digital recreations, you can witness and participate in how life was lived in any environment in the past, or experience the contemporary cultures of those environments. It's a great way to learn about the world, although there's no doubt that 'real' feeling of actually going to the Grand Canyon, Eiffel Tower, Times Square, Giza Pyramids, French Riviera, Angkor Wat or other places his distant land cannot be duplicated. I would rather lie on a Caribbean beach with a drink in hand, visit the Museo del Prado in Madrid, Spain, sail a catamaran in Costa Rica or see the Great Wall of China with my own eyes and experience it "for real". - Impact on people's lives, language, food and everything it has to offer. Innovation is unlikely to fully replace the depth of our traditional means of connecting to culture, arts and travel.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (40)The worst online problems can escalate; then add interpersonal dissociation

Daniel S. Schiff, a Ph.D. Candidate studying the governance and social and ethical implications of AI at Georgia Tech's School of Public Policy said: "The existence of a metaverse renews questions about misinformation, privacy, targeted advertising, unequal treatment of subgroups, coercion, harassment, Bullying, labor and sexual exploitation and much more. VR theoretically exacerbates many of these and other social and ethical issues posed by the internet and social media, given the enhanced experience associated with immersive audiovisual content.

“Harassment and bullying could become more traumatizing, while protecting privacy becomes even more important given expanded access to data about a person's digital location, emotional state or behavior. Indeed, early experiences of sexual harassment in virtual spaces indicate an urgent need for proactive governance and regulation, particularly to protect vulnerable groups and children.

“Other issues concern mental well-being. Just as digital technologies and social media have altered people's cognitive patterns, attention spans, reward systems, and mental health, VR/AR can also alter and even exploit these phenomena, likely to a greater extent. Careful research and governance is required to stay ahead of these and other associated harms, especially when they are actually more rigid in phenomenologically enhanced VR environments.

“Another set of problems concerns notions of identity and interpersonal relationships and behavior. Are individuals likely to replace their real-world personas with alternative digital personas, and will such behavior allow for creative expression and development, or will psychological dissonance, harmful artificiality, and social self-alienation ensue instead? That is, will increasingly immersive environments allow for more authentic expression of self and deepening of relationships, or simply more immersive forms of self and social displacement, deceit, and so on? Of particular concern is that acts of sexual or physical violence or criminal activity may find a home in the metaverse.

"Another theme in VR/AR ethics linked to modern philosophy concerns the Nozickian 'experience engine', most prominently portrayed in popular culture by the film 'The Matrix'. real-world relationships and commitments, such as demotions in school performance, marriage, job seeking, and raising children. These types of withdrawal have been studied in the context of the advent of television and the Internet, with some real evidence of social harm.

“Of course, to the extent that these risks are recognized and not exaggerated, they can pose major societal challenges in the form of poor educational attainment, fragmented labor markets, lack of stable family or community life, structural demographic problems, crime and loneliness., health problems, political instability and additional social and psychological pathologies.

“Ultimately, a metaverse offers the opportunity to revolutionize expression and creativity, create new spaces for social connection and exploration, enhance commerce and entertainment, and even increase access to underserved populations. Whether the adoption is slow or fast, the opportunities abound if the risks are carefully managed. To manifest the best version of the metaverse, technologists, policymakers, researchers, and the public must actively work to envision possibilities and minimize harm.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (41)Services will grow and the digital gaps will also increase

Robert M. Mason, Professor Emeritus at the University of Washington, whose research focuses on the culture and ethics of knowledge management, commented, "By 2040, the metaverse will be a much more sophisticated and truly fully immersive and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people worldwide. The world's population in 2040 is estimated to be over 9 billion, so this statement posits that about 5.5% of the world's population would be affected by a more sophisticated and better-functioning metaverse.

“Without analyzing every nuance or wrestling with definitions, I expect the relevant technologies to continue to improve, with improved image resolution and sensory input enabling more immersive virtual encounters. For those living in the 2040s, the metaverse may offer a growing range of physical/social encounters and intense experiences.

“Having experienced a few iterations of technologies that have great potential to improve our access to knowledge and provide a wider range of virtual experiences, I am less excited about the technologies themselves and more intrigued by questions like 1) those technologies assembled into systems and services that provide experiences to users, and 2) who the users are.

“What experiences will be available to users and what will motivate producers to provide those experiences? These three categories will help shape the future Metaverse:

  • What services are available?
  • Who has access to these services?
  • What (government) regulations will be issued?

“If we look at what manufacturers have provided with previous versions of the 'virtual' or connected world, we can start with Minitel from France. The Minitel was developed and operated by the French Telecommunications Administration to increase the use of telephone service by citizens and reduce the cost of printing telephone directories. It became popular and successful. Although the Minitel is based on a rudimentary text-only terminal (provided free of charge to telephone subscribers), the Minitel offered a glimpse into the future of Internet-based connectivity and online services, and offers some insight into the tension between regulation and open access for developers (a precursor to net neutrality).

“With all the useful and cheap services Minitel offers, the French government seemed almost embarrassed to report the high volume and revenue of games and chat rooms, particularly Messageries Roses (adult chat rooms). Despite concerns about minors accessing these sex sites, France PTT decided not to ban them and left access control to parents. Men were more likely to use these sites than women, resulting in many of the sites hiring men to impersonate women in order to maintain high call/chat volume. As a result, these chat rooms grew to the point where they overloaded and crashed the Minitel system.

“Observers of today's Internet and other online services disagree on estimates of the financial impact of gambling and entertainment (including pornography and 'pink' interactive services), but all agree that the volume is high and the revenue much higher are than 100 billion dollars. Virtual reality and augmented reality (VR and AR) games accounted for less than 10% of that total in 2019, but they were growing.

“Assuming a Western (American) capitalist (or even oligarchic) ​​economic environment for the further evolutionary development of the metaverse, I predict that the profit motive, perhaps slightly controlled by government regulation, will shape, if not dictate, the types of services available . and the accessibility of these services.

"As I write these notes today, nearly 60% of the world's population is an active internet user. However, Internet activity is not evenly distributed; According to World Bank estimates, internet usage ranges from over 90% in the most economically advanced countries to less than 10% in emerging markets.

"If history and current services are any guide to how services in the metaverse will evolve, I would expect gaming and entertainment (including pornography and "pink" services) to adopt the technological traits associated with the metaverse early on. Innovative developers are likely to be drawn to the wide range of economic and manipulative opportunities in the metaverse, including cheating and deceit. The past success of sex-based Internet sites and services would lure developers to metaversal platforms that offer similar services. I expect these services to be a significant, if not necessarily dominant, driver of developer innovation and user adoption in the emerging metaverse.

“Metaverse engagement opportunities will likely continue to be inconsistent. In the absence of government services designed to include all families, the technology affordability gap will continue to widen, increasing the social inequality of Metaverse engagement.

In summary, I predict that the metaverse, supported and enabled by increasingly rich visualizations and experiences, will offer only modest (if any) expansion of the spectrum of human behavior, but harnessing the implications of embedded values ​​can and will provide opportunities for engagement in the evolved Vicinity. The Metaverse will enable developers to create services that speak to the higher and lower aspects of human nature through games, entertainment and social engagement. These engagement opportunities will be unequally available as citizens of more affluent societies have greater access to a wider range of such services.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (42)“It can increase our loneliness and lead to more polarization”

Maja Vujović, Owner/Director of Compass Communications in Belgrade, Serbia, wrote: “If we just take the two most talked about activities that we have experienced en masse during the COVID-19 pandemic – distance learning and remote work – and imagine them in the metaverse, we can see immediately that the downsides of those unfortunate experiences would be resolved in this new and improved scenario. Instead of looking at the Muppet Theater-like gallery of passive faces unable to get work done as they speak individually, individual workers and students can be at their work stations at home, doing their jobs in peace and only chatting to their colleagues occasionally . Avatars of colleagues and bosses on their screens. You could have almost exactly the same experience as at work or school - really. And that can just as well be small talk at the water dispenser or chance encounters in the canteen - occasionally invaluable opportunities for exchanging ideas and information.

“During this teleportation experience in what appeared to be a shared office or classroom, they were able to comfortably and effectively engage in whatever activity that originally brought them together, without the infamous virtual meeting fatigue. This would go beyond making our 2D experiences more immersive. This would be a very effective and productive upgrade to a 3D experience that consumes most of our day. The same logic and technology could also be used to participate in any number of collective activities, such as B. exhibitions, entertainment shows, public debates, fairs and conferences, processes, etc. This would add a lot of depth to the expression “hybrid working”.

“There is no doubt that this would become the popular option for anyone who has the opportunity to take part in an essential collective activity without the inconveniences of commuting, pollution, shaving or putting on makeup, preparing lunch for the children etc. would also be significant. There would be a decrease in foot traffic in urban areas, leading to a decrease in commerce, casual shopping, impromptu meals and coffee breaks, taxi rides, demand for public transport and very likely even tourism.

“Critically, this can significantly increase our loneliness. It might work well for established families who could organize their time better. But it would reduce the opportunities for people to meet, get to know each other, become romantically involved, and start families. It would probably help us to connect and form relationships with people from other parts of the world with whom we have something in common or with whom we feel similar. However, this would come at the expense of day-to-day contacts with our immediate neighbors, people in our communities, our colleagues, etc. That would lead to more polarization, not less.

"We will very likely use the potential of these technologies to delegate in situations we would rather avoid, such as Dating apps will have a big day with this technology, as will teaching, sales, and any other industry where adoption is critical.

“The change in our daily life will not be big. We use these tools the same way we would use a thesaurus in a word processor or a spreadsheet to track our spending. They will only be tools and we will be no smarter or kinder than without them. They save us time and offer more comfort, more entertainment, more variety in our everyday lives. But let's not confuse it with a specific level of reality, nor will we allow ourselves to be confused about our identity. If really excellent avatars are developed and we customize them ourselves (that's why an entire economy would develop), at most we will treat these avatars the way we treat pets - as very close beings that we love very much, but who we can keep most of the time in their place.

“Blockchain and smart contracts are likely to play a role as a new paradigm, a new phase of technology. In a big way, we will replace most of what we use today - social media, interest groups, databases of all kinds (spend, gift lists, playlists, etc.) as well as all future interactions, and we will put them all on the blockchain. We will use blockchain to address the biggest problem that will exacerbate the metaverse and make it our top priority: the issue of trust. Blockchain backed provenance will be the only solid source of truth we will have to fight disinformation, fake news, identity theft and other such transgressions.

“Behind the vast range of new opportunities available to us are tight teams of overhauled production staff. Tech-savvy creatives will quickly perfect the sparkle, glitter, and sleekness of our virtual clothing, hair, and skin. They will always run against tight deadlines and will tolerate demanding bosses in their underpaid jobs. Unfortunately, not much will change in our social contract.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (43)A number of new societal challenges will arise

Michael M. J. Fischer, Professor of Anthropology and Science and Technology Studies at MIT and Associate Professor in the Department of Global Health and Social Medicine at Harvard Medical School, said: "As defined here, the metaverses are computer-generated, network-enhanced (XR, including VR, AR, MR) . These all already exist, so it's not too difficult to continue refining, expanding, and making these (and maybe holograms) well into 2040. In addition, advances are likely to continue in many areas, such as activated haptic feedback (i.e. biomechanics, neuroelectronic interface, cyborg) prostheses along the lines of those being developed in Hugh Herr's lab at MIT.

“These become rich spaces for artistic speculation and play with the material environment:

  • More efficient, user-accessible, and customizable information repositories (assisting in chemical, pharmacological, archival, and environmental search and retrieval)
  • Game environments for scenario planning and resilience planning
  • New architecture - materials, textures, 3D shape transformations, energy flows and feedback, green technologies
  • Transport – Autonomous vehicles are already in use in high-loading ports
  • Socially liveable urban spaces

“Advantages or new traits may include more flexible attitudes toward the worlds we live in and build for ourselves, and an expanded ability to coexist with and switch between different cognitive, affective, and aesthetic modalities. No doubt this will also stimulate new forms of mathematics and physics, as well as a deeper understanding of biological processes.

“The concern is that this could easily become a boon for societies with increased surveillance, concentrated corporate structures and anti-user control (also known as 'anti-democratic' in mainstream parlance), including anti-privacy and anti-diversity tolerance , fit and eccentricity. The technological developments being introduced into China in Xingjiang to control and “re-educate” Uyghurs are the most obvious troubling red flags, especially since much of this technology is being developed in Silicon Valley, some of which is also being introduced into our neoliberal societies under Managerial language, techno-optimistic sales tactics [driven by] the need for capital to develop technology and sales at the expense of abandoning social values.

“More attention needs to be paid to:

  1. Social implications of complex systems for questions of social responsibility and social justice.
  2. Multiple social arrangements not normalized into coercive and algorithmic reductions driven by efficiency models.
  3. Increasingly problematic mental health issues are being reported around the world due to growing feelings of isolation and alienation among individuals – including an increase in suicides.

“These social problems cannot be subsumed under the rubric of 'ethics', which a) is based on antiquated individualistic models of general rational behaviorism (social responsibility is a better descriptive alternative, except that it has been co-opted by corporate social responsibility the greenwashing style ), and b) is often bureaucratized in to-do lists that can easily be bypassed. In particular, more attention needs to be paid to the liberating, creativity-enhancing, and psychodynamically interactive properties of play, memory, traumatic experiences, and the cultural resources of diverse languages, cultural experiences, and worldviews.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (44)“Education is where the biggest and most valuable changes can happen”

Nigel M. Cameron, President Emeritus of the Center for Policy on Emerging Technologies in Washington, DC, wrote: “It is a truism that technological change tends to be slower than expected, but also more profound in its impact. I suspect this case will confirm that. 2040 seems a long way off, even if 2004 seems like yesterday. A lot has happened since then, although Second Life has proven to be a dead end, MOOCs [massive open online courses] have stayed outside of mainstream education, despite COVID-19's push for all things distant and the purportedly liberating power of technology. and its corporate suppliers are much more suspect today than they were in 2004 - from governments and people alike.

“I anticipate continued online migration of all types of economic activity, although the word 'metaverse', which suggests a major overhaul, doesn't appeal to me. My book on robots and jobs from five years ago seems pretty dated (we were really on the verge of self-driving cars, we weren't before). While the journey of AI development goes in one direction, that may not be the case for the acceptance of its possibilities, partly because COVID-19 has reminded us so much of what's so special about the non-metaverse, partly, how cybersecurity issues remain unresolved, and advances in cyber-physical systems raise risk levels to potentially existential heights.

“Keynes' view of widespread 'technological unemployment' is a non-trivial possibility; it was Bill Gates who said a few years ago that governments require companies to hire people, not machines. Certainly fiscal subsystems will adapt - both to preserve jobs and to add value - and it may be that social movements increasingly value human interaction and notions of human service.

“Speaking at the Champalimaud Foundation's 10th anniversary conference on 'The World in 100 Years', I said I hope that when the Foundation celebrates its 110th anniversary, our descendants will still be following Fly to Lisbon and want to celebrate in person at the Jeronimos Monastery. It may be that much later, the next 18 years will decide the direction we take as we discover if we can truly benefit from the metaverse while continuing to focus on a human future.

“In my view, education is where the biggest and most valuable changes can take place, but online education is still little more than a 19th-century correspondence course. The complete failure of COVID-19 to drive large-scale, creative and immersive MOOC-type education delivery for all ages has been quite remarkable, although certainly at secondary and university levels, if successful, this would likely reduce the number of teachers as a factor out of, say, 100 (and expose each child to the best of them).”

“Demand for all types of physical objects will decrease dramatically”

Jonathan Kolber, author of "A Celebration Society", wrote: "What most people fail to understand about virtual reality is that a fully immersive, zero-latency (subjective) VR experience is functionally equivalent to physical reality for most users. We are still a long way from this experience, but all basic technologies are either entering commercialization or leaving the laboratory. To the extent that these technologies prove insufficient or limited compared to “real” physical reality, the commercial pressure to refine them towards full immersion will be immense and will increase as VR use cases proliferate.

“A profound implication of this early development to 2040 is that demand for all types of physical objects will decrease dramatically. This is because, in almost all cases, people want the experiences enabled by an object, not the object itself. While unique works of art have prestige, even they can be digitized, as NFTs prove. For example, once humans can experience idealized living environments that can be adapted and modified almost instantly from vast “libraries” of AI-curated digital components, there will be far less pressure for the much-cited “local, local, local” than what seems to be driving the Real estate prices keep going up.

"It will also be much easier to 'own' a range of immersive digital representations of cars than physical cars, which require expensive maintenance and storage space, are subject to breakdowns and cannot be easily modified. People who spend much of their day in virtual worlds may only need the basic needs of the "real" physical environment: modest housing, an adequate but bland diet, and preventative health care. As health care can also be delivered via the VR environment, in most cases through automated vital signs monitoring and occasional human consultations, there will be little need for most people to physically move anywhere.

“Reduced requirements for manufactured physical objects will completely transform the economy and eventually make it obsolete. It is my wish, then, that life on earth after 2040 becomes largely a playground and place of voluntary service to one another, with the best examples of service being duly celebrated. In this world, the basic needs of the human inhabitants are met by robots and the AIs that control those robots, with few humans having to “work” as we currently understand it. (The reasoning behind this claim is extensive and a main subject of my book.)

“However, I expect that a handful of people will flock to the first O'Neill-style space world in the late 21st century for the unique physical experiences that, to my knowledge, cannot be replicated in VR - and the celestial ones Environments they can create. Once the first one is built - and the space elevator or SSTO space planes for transportation - I expect the space worlds to grow exponentially, with housing and tourism bringing large numbers of people there in the 22nd century and beyond.

“As with any transformative technology, fully immersive VR will have both angelic and demonic applications. Demonic uses can include intrusive surveillance and control at levels even George Orwell could not have imagined, and I hope totalitarian states will embrace this power. Likewise, hackers can take control of a user's experiences, even to the point of convincing them that their VR experience IS reality, tricking them into draining financial accounts, etc.

“There are no easy answers to these problems, but if we can shift the conversation to systems of sustained technological abundance, based on virtually unlimited supplies of energy, raw materials, and organizational intelligence (i.e., software), these threats and burdens will be greatly reduced and the "Angelic" opportunities are far more likely to thrive."

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (45)"We need signposts, guard rails and sets of rules to distinguish the metaverse from the biological universe"

Maggie Jackson, award-winning journalist and author of Distracted: Reclaiming Our Focus in a World of Lost Attention, said: "As we think about the role the metaverse can play in humanity's future, we must ask the question 'What can we create ? ” the question of how our creations will affect humanity now and in the future. In other words, we must ask, "What do we want from the metaverse?" That's a caveat that tech critics from Langdon Winner to Wendall Berry have been wisely offering for decades.

“The choices we make today about what kind of virtual/digital world we create and inhabit are critical. Human survival is at stake. My concerns are diverse. Even if the digital world falls far short of any truly realistic simulation of life, it is already considered "real". every digital experience as genuine. Any further improvement in Metaverse realism will make this even more real.

"It's important to keep in mind that no matter how 'real' we think of the metaverse, it will not represent the entirety of our reality. For a long time at least, physical, biological, and non-digital reality endures and must be valued. It would be a big mistake to try to include the "non-virtual experience" in the "meta-experience". , creativity, contemplation. When we invest too much in a metaverse that seems to respond to all of our needs at the touch of a button, that rewards instant gratification, that allows for an easy escape from the drudgery of non-virtual life, we narrow ourselves in the moment and over time.

“At a time of great change and increasingly complex systemic crises, we need more than ever to invest in the side of ourselves that can handle uncertainty, rather than fear it; that can overcome the often wrong first impression of a person or a problem; who can admit that we do not fully know the world and cannot fully control it, especially with one click. For this reason, it is critical that businesses, citizens, inventors, and users demand transparency in this area at multiple levels as we move forward in metaverse creation.

“Both children and adults need to know what is and isn't digital when entering the metaverse; This sounds like an obvious point, but it will become more important in the years to come. One of the most exciting measures being seriously considered in AI ethics circles is this kind of transparency for the caregiver and other helper robots. We need signposts, guardrails, and rulebooks to distinguish the metaverse from the biological universe, and we need them fast.”

Metaverses will be stationary, discrete, task-based, and simulated

Glen Edens, an Internet Hall of Famer and Professor of Practice at Arizona State University's School of Global Management, wrote, "The metaverse in prototype form has been around for some time, first as 3D spaces mapped onto 2D spaces (Second Life, Minecraft, Roblox, countless blockbuster games, etc.) and now on to immersive space simulations with 3D projection. While these 3D spaces are currently very roughly defined using head and body position tracking, localized displays (head-mounted stereoscopes like Oculus, HTC, etc.) or glasses (Google Glass, Microsoft HoloLens, etc.) or room-based projections (Avalon Holographic, Looking Glass, etc.) - it's all very rudimentary. All of these implementations limit the metaverse to specialized viewing spaces and highly engineered experiences, not unlike a home theater system or even a good hi-fi stereo system, where you have to "sit in the right place" to get the effect. (Of course, wireless headphones and spatial audio are an audio-only solution.) Given the historically slow progress in this field, we need to ask four questions:

  • Will the Metaverse be portable (i.e. mobile) or relatively stationary?
  • Will the metaverse be a separate space in our lives or integrated into it?
  • Will the metaverse be all-encompassing or task-based?
  • Will the Metaverse experiences be truly social, with all the nuances, or will they be a rough simulation, a little bit better than online today?

"My bet is that by 2040 we'll be stationary (you have to 'sit in the right place'), it will be a separate room that someone visits on purpose, it will be task-based, and it will still be a simulation of real social interaction , only slightly better than, say, Zoom today. You go "in" for work, play, health, or socializing and "out" when you're done or need a break.

“The first challenge in realizing the 2040 vision is to create a set of visualization tools that are comfortable and natural to use, that allow freedom of movement and enhance activities, rather than requiring commitment to activities (i.e. when someone is passionate about their VR games, they are willing to accept the inconvenience and awkwardness of a head-mounted display). So far, this has proven to be a technical challenge.

“The next challenge in realizing the vision of 2040 is dealing with standards, architecture and governance (the three pillars of any platform). How will this work? The Internet is attractive because it's not owned by a company - TCP/IP, UDP, DNS, etc. - are standards, along with standard physical equipment created to implement those standards (routers, switches, multiplexers, etc.) that enabling billions of devices to connect and appear to work together.

“If, when and how we come to a set of standards, architecture and governance to create a single metaverse is it crucial, or will we have thousands of individual metaverses, or should it be metaversi :-)? Of course, we all now understand that the Internet is a geographically fragmented global network with significant local control, but it still largely appears as a global agora.

“Technically, the problem is the display hardware that drives the experience. Let's face it, for the average person, the user interfaces we have today are pretty awful. I am confident that we will have the software platforms, authoring tools, algorithms, computational resources, storage and communication bandwidth needed to create usable Metaverse experiences. I predict that many (if not most) visitors to the Metaverse will see the 3D world mapped to a 2D device (Second Life got many things right, but it was too early).

"Our current metaverse situation is reminiscent of the early years, long ago, when Bulletin Boards (remember Fido?), Tymshare, The Well, Prodigy, CompuServe, and America Online were individual, unique, and competing visions of an online world, that have finally been subsumed by an improved world. set of standards, architecture and governance that is now referred to as the "Internet".

“Economic and technological forces favor multiple, task-oriented metaverses made possible by continuous improvement in software, communication, computing, and visualization devices. These multi-metaverses are managed by many commercial, non-profit corporations, educational institutions, research labs, government institutions, and hopefully grassroots activists and citizens. You decide what to do, where to sit (or stand), and which metaverse to visit. The Metaverse will complement, rather than replace, our current online and computing experiences.

“So my best answers to the main questions are:

  • Will the Metaverse be portable or relatively stationary? Stationary – will not be as ubiquitous as mobile devices and the internet are today.
  • Will the metaverse be a separate space in our lives or integrated into it? Disconnected - it will be an intentional "in" and "out" decision.
  • Will the metaverse be all-encompassing or task-based? Related to the task.
  • Will the Metaverse experiences be truly social, with all the nuances, or will they be a simulation of social experiences, a little better than online today? It will be a simulation that falls short of true presence or prana.

“Immersive experiences and environments have advantages: they can be more immersive; can improve understanding and communication; they can share complex information and details more effectively; they can compress time and space and reduce the amount of travel; they can improve the efficiency of tasks (e.g. maintenance of complex equipment); they can improve educational and health outcomes; and can improve access to and dissemination of knowledge and experience. All these factors must have real economic and social benefits.

“The big question I have is: is this metaverse investment and technique for creating virtual spaces and mirror worlds a New World or is it just the next evolution in user experience and interface design? If it's just the latter, many investors could be disappointed.”

"An even deeper immersion in 'social media', which means greater centralization of our culture and the growing power of the technological elite"

Russ White, infrastructure architect and internet pioneer, commented: “Whether the metaverse will play a major role in the lives of a large part of the world's population by 2040 depends very much on social and cultural realities, rather than technical ones (although there is a technical component). There are two positive aspects of the "Metaverse". First, like Web3, it promises a return to the origins of the individual creator of the Internet. Second, it promises disruption, meaning the current big players could very well be dethroned and replaced by a more decentralized group of smaller players.

"However, for the Metaverse dream to come to life, we must all live in the same 'world.' The metaverse, like social media, requires a network effect. People want to talk to people; For this we must be on the same platform. Platforms are expensive and complex, relying on internet infrastructure to reach everyone. The money and technical know-how needed to build the platform(s) on which to run the Metaverse rests in the hands of a small group of people - the same people who built and controlled today's neuro-digital media landscape.

So the most likely outcome is that the metaverse turns out to be an even deeper immersion in 'social media', signifying greater centralization of our culture and the growing power of the technological elite. However, these trends may have run their course. There may be a backlash against the formation of the technological elite. We may be experiencing the tide of an authoritarian moment right now. It may be that the current globalist regime can stay in power, but for now it doesn't look promising. Since the Metaverse is a project of this technological elite, it is difficult to predict its future. It may be that the global economy has reached something of a tipping point and we cannot restore the ideas of widespread ownership and decentralized control. The difficulty of building and maintaining these technologies also plays a role.

“In our current culture, there is an illusion of control by the 'brightest and brightest'. From the COVID-19 pandemic to building the platforms that power our daily lives, humans have handed control over to experts - people with specialized training and experience. However, the failure of these specialists to keep their promises in purely technical terms is becoming obvious to large sections of the population.

“Especially in the world of technology, security and data protection are becoming big issues. Every year, hundreds of millions of people's personal data are exposed. DDoS [Distributed Denial of Service Attacks] are on the rise. Cars are blocked due to errors in a radio transmission. Large providers experience outages lasting several days. Every time there is a large-scale disruption, every time people's privacy is violated, every time a prediction about the future (on which politics is based) fails, trust in the "elite" dwindles little.

“Will trust be eroded to the point where large masses of people reject the metaverse altogether? It seems that the most likely situation is that the metaverse will reach some classes of humans but not the great mass of humanity. The Metaverse, like the gamer world today, will impact a significant portion of the population. But it will not be used by 'everyone' in 2040. Its impact will be limited - closer to the parallel universe of Twitter and Facebook than to the 'mass world'.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (46)A mirror world that will change our perception of place, space, time, self-expression and connection to reality

Barry Chudakov, Founder and Director of Sertain Research, wrote: "To call the metaverse 'the future of the internet' or 'the next internet battleground' is to miss (or reject) the logic of the mirror worlds that have recently been touted as the metaverse. Thinking the metaverse will be another internet is like thinking the internet would be another television. It is understandable that we can use a current reference to shape the future, but this framework is misleading.

“The Metaverse is a mirror world – a mirror world – that you will enter as a version of yourself; a made-up world meant to be a copy of the real world. This mirror can be accurate or distorted, intentionally manipulated or meticulously accurate. And by 2040, looking into that mirror – and stepping into it – will significantly change us and our perception. Writer Jia Tolentino has called social media a deceptive mirror; Imagine how much more complicated a metaverse mirror will be where, in the words of Kevin Kelly, "everything will have a paired twin... everything and every place will be machine-readable, depending on the power of the algorithms."

David Gelernter writes in his 1991 book Mirror Worlds:

“Humans build microcosms to find superior vision. ... The easiest way to achieve ... is to recreate a large scene in a small amount. Then I can hover over it – hover over it; literally seeing the big picture…. Microcosms are satisfying because they make you feel like you understand the whole or how the parts fit together and what it all means.”

“Today, investors and technology insiders are excited about the financial returns from this new incarnation of technology. But the Metaverse - whether as currently envisioned by Facebook/Meta or as an evolution of the mirror worlds - will be more than a branded gold mine, a land grab in a new world. As Gelernter wrote years ago, the deeper and far more important value of the Metaverse microcosm is how it helps us understand—and hopefully improve—the world we live in; understand some aspects or many aspects of the pieces and pieces that the mirror world shows us; how they fit together and what that means.

“So the first thing we need to think about is what a metaverse really is; then the breadth and depth of change that a metaverse brings to us, our consciousness, our physical world. Indeed, advanced and immersive 3D online worlds have the potential to benefit all aspects of society, from education, healthcare and government to gaming, entertainment and the arts - and positively impact all social and civic life. If - and this couldn't seem bigger - if we examine, deal with, understand, and then regularly monitor the logic of the metaverse and our adaptation to that logic.

“In art history, as David Hockney and others have described, the advent of mirrors fundamentally changed painting. There? Because this seemingly innocuous technological advance prompted painters to more accurately recreate the world that the mirror allowed them to see. In other words, looking in the mirror changed the way they saw; and it changed how they thought. Recreating the world, presenting and re-presenting the world seems to be as fundamental a human endeavor as building cities or creating art. The metaverse represents a maximum expression of this will to replicate.

“Replication changes how we see and, in turn, what we tell ourselves about the world. For millennia, people have told stories about how the world was: how it began (Genesis), how it would end (Revelation). And in our personal lives, most of us did the best we could with what we (little) knew. Then came the Enlightenment, the rise of science and technology. What was emerging, albeit slowly, was objective reality. Before the Enlightenment, objective reality was an unknown land. We take that for granted, at least in free societies, because we have access to so many objective resources, from libraries and schools to government resources like the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] or the Census Bureau. We stop inventing the world when we start measuring it. Through replication, the metaverse - mirror worlds - has the potential to be the best measuring tool ever created by humans, as it will be designed to accurately replicate reality in multiple dimensions.

“Replication is a complete change of perspective. So, among a set of new demands that such a remarkable technology as the Metaverse places on our consciousness, we must first examine and understand the logic of the Metaverse. The logic of the metaverse is the logic of the mirror multiplied by the logic of immersion. Since the logic of the mirror implies demand - the desire to reproduce exactly what the mirror shows - and this demand is fundamental to seeing the world more accurately, we shall see that the product of the demand is facticity, the state of what is really happening. . When you see clearly, you see what is - and this causes you to see differently, leading to superior vision and greater awareness. This is a whole new story.

“As the digital representation of everything and everyone in the world, the Metaverse will be a camera-ready place; everything in the physical world is captured by myriad cameras — "electric pinpoint eyes that can be placed anywhere and everywhere" — to replicate reality. Our consensual physical reality is translated into the mirror world. Since everything and everyone will be on camera 24/7/365, we're all becoming the Kardashians. Our workplace, home, public and private spaces are reflected back to us in the mirror, creating reflection as transmission. We all become transparent like windows. We will ask: have I become an interesting person for any tracking company since everyone everywhere can see me?

“Such concerns will be met by new customs and data protection borders that will of course emerge. As the metaverse pushes boundaries and the reflection becomes our prime sense of self, the new selfie, self-expression—and almost everything else—in everyday life will also be a presentation for the cameras. For an automotive manufacturing company or a freight forwarder of goods and services with multiple storage and delivery protocols, Looking Glass World is a revolutionary advancement of remarkable dimensions. Mirroring enables and improves many things like supply chain management, production efficiency, assembly line accuracy, etc. On the human level, ubiquitous cameras and mirrors create a number of moral, identity, and privacy issues.

“Our identities, behaviors, thoughts, and actions—as always when we use a new tool—will follow the logic of the metaverse. How will our identity evolve in the Metaverse? Today, following the lead of Second Life, a digital representation of us in the metaverse will likely be an avatar, a cartoon recreation of ourselves. This self-representation or persona will not remain a caricature. Selfies will morph into the metaverse to portray us more accurately, more beautifully, or more beautifully; They will change to be more in line with our affiliations or our worldview. Do we understand how this self-representation of our identities in the metaverse will change our overall representation of self given the immersive logic of coming mirror worlds? Do we understand that we need to know this logic in order not to be used by it when using the metaverse? Again, Kevin Kelly writes in Wired describing Mirror Worlds: “The great paradox is that the only way to understand how the AR [or metaverse] works is to build the AR [or metaverse] and us to test in it. It's oddly recursive: the technology itself is the microscope needed to study the effects of the technology.'

“On a personal level, the Metaverse is not just about observation, surveillance, and the thorny terrain of self-expression and self-obsession; it also includes self-evaluation, the desire to belong, to fit in, to succeed, to be seen and heard. In terms of accuracy, a curious, recursive logic is at work when humans use mirrors: the urge to accurately represent, reproduce, capture, and recreate transforms us; When we use mirrors, our use is not passive. In painting, artists like Vermeer changed the way we saw the world by using a mirror to capture every detail on the canvas. Cameras and videos capture images that not only stimulate memory, but become memory; they are the documentation of our lives, our encounters, our loved ones, our crimes. That's the logic we take with us when creating and entering the metaverse. When we see ourselves in the mirror—in that mirror world—we take our ambitions, insecurities, self-image, and (often breathlessly) prejudices with us into the mirror. How will we know what that means when technology itself is the microscope needed to see the effects of technology?

“We will rewrite the laws and create new laws for violations and crimes committed in the metaverse; Let's brainstorm and set new boundaries as the mirror follows us into our lives, our homes, our bedrooms.

“Of course, that assumes documentarians and metaverse builders are as conscientious and precise as Ken Burns, Doris Kearns Godwin, Walter Isaacson, or Jon Meacham. And what will the soundtrack of the metaverse be? Will we hear the voices of Toni Morrison, Alice Walker, Hannah Arendt or Rebecca West? Because the nature of immersive environments that purport to mirror reality means that the mirror must accurately reflect the reality it is intended to represent. We are currently having trouble separating information from misinformation, news from propaganda, and we are only a step or two beyond newspapers and magazines. Remember, technologists built Facebook to make it stickier, Instagram to reward scroll destruction. What will happen when technologists build monetizing metaverse environments to make them more inviting and believable - and then the power structure of the metaverse changes and an entity wants its users to believe untruths and distortions? Who will monitor this environment? What rules or laws will these digital overseers apply? What integrity can we take for granted?

“By tagging and promoting the Metaverse, Zuckerberg and Meta hope to encourage monetization of the Metaverse. Meta wants companies and people, gamers and social media guys to fund the development of the metaverse and use the metaverse as a new place of business, similar to opening a new store in a mall (except malls are so old now). Monetization can be a laudable goal. After all, without an economic engine and ongoing support, the metaverse would be just another technologist idea that never got off the ground. But the Metaverse moment is chillingly ironic. As we plunder our planet's physical environment, extinct species and entire biospheres like the Amazon rainforest, polluting our air and oceans, melting our polar ice caps, and poisoning our food systems, we are building a metaverse that is not just a mirror of the real world, but a completely different world. Is the metaverse an attempt to remake the real world, create an alternate world after destroying what we inherited? Or can we use them to reinvent the world, see it more clearly, fix mistakes and build a freer, more equal, more balanced and more holistic future?

“Even when monetization and market makers are involved, the goals and parameters of the experience change. The metaverse will pose a reverse challenge to our core assumptions of presence and value. As Kim Stanley Robinson wrote: “We can only think in economic terms, our ethics must be quantified and measured by the impact our actions have on GDP. It is said that this is the only thing people can agree on.' The Metaverse will present its logic and value on its own terms. For example, consider how Decentraland, a Metaverse venue, ignores the logic of everyday real-world experience to promote its footprint — not in typical real-world terms, but through NFTs, a newer low-or-zero blockchain valuation no record market value range. Andrew Kiguel, co-founder and CEO of Tokens.com, described Decentraland as a different type of NFT or non-fungible token in a TV report. NFTs represent a new way of creating and creating value.

“By monetizing the metaverse, it prioritizes where money can be made. This is an obvious conclusion when looking at global industries like pharmaceuticals and insurance. There is always a balance between serving clients and returning dividends and profits to shareholders. Initially, the metaverse will prioritize Earth (the digital equivalent of a URL in our current website-based environment); Entertainment, where existing brands and personalities expand their reach and profits by finding new users to entertain; and the horde of followers who see these trends and want to take your brand into the metaverse to showcase products and services in cutting-edge ways. That's a given. While today anyone can buy virtual land on the Decentraland platform, metaverters must use a form of digital currency called MANNA, which can only be bought with Bitcoin or Ethereum cryptocurrency. So since they are going to a physical real estate agency, they can go to the website to see what is for sale. Pre-orders have already been placed, but many are available used. The price fluctuates just like real estate in the physical world.

  • “Who is going to monetize – and thus prioritize – the urgency of climate change when the Amazon rainforest is poised for abrupt and irreversible devastation amid levels of marine pollution, endangered biodiversity, increasing drought, receding coastlines, uncontrollable storms and growth ? how many climate refugees cross national borders in search of food and a better life?
  • “Who is going to monetize a way to combat misinformation and disinformation promoted by growing communities of nativism and populism?
  • “Who will monetize factuality, Hans Rosling's nickname for fact-based understanding of such fundamental issues as literacy, poverty, women's and minority rights, the wealth of nations, and the rise or fall of democracy?

“In other words, is the metaverse becoming just another gold rush that attracts wealthy investors looking to make more money than they already are? Or is there a way to encourage investment while providing clarity and focusing on an assessment based on real facts while attempting to solve major and pressing global problems facing humanity? Finally, in a mirror of the world, like a telescope, we should be able to see and do positively things and issues that we normally overlook or ignore with the naked eye.

“The shift from many online activities to metaverse, more immersive digital spaces and digital life will first take place as a virtual meeting, such as telemedicine consultation today. But it won't stop there. As we shift more of our meetings and activities into the metaverse, that shift will be like a base shift or a base shift in math; how to go from shaping the world according to biblical dictates to shaping the world in ones and zeros. This is effectively a new order, a new way of ordering things, surroundings, presence, identity - a reordering of ourselves.

“Fully immersive digital spaces will replace social media. We need to consider and plan for the difference between immersion and online access. It's a different logic, a different way of presenting yourself. If we appear as ourselves given the behaviors we can observe today on TikTok, Instagram and Snap, we will not be content to let ourselves be who we are; Let's dive in as an improved version of ourselves. Our eyebrows might get darker, our muscles and breasts bigger, our skin tone changed to achieve a societal goal of inclusion or exclusivity. So immersion isn't like so-called real life, it's more like teenagers watching Tourette's victims on TikTok or YouTube and copying or becoming like that behavior. We will conform to the realities of the metaverse by making them our own, with corresponding benefits.

“Also consider that you will spend an hour or a number of hours in an environment which is neither your home nor your place of work; it will be the new metaspace in which you live or work. You will easily get used to working there as the Metaverse software has been tested with people like you and there is a consensus on amenities to make you feel comfortable on the digital plane of the Workaverse. However, we are bodies as the first substrate of our reality. Our sense of the extremities of our body, our proprioception, will change significantly as we make the transition from physical reality to the logic and reality of the metaverse. The most profound thing I envision is that this shift from online activity to more immersive digital spaces will confuse that proprioception. Where does our physical form end and where does the world begin? And what body do I even want to perform in? This is no small consideration. Our bodies and our relationship to our bodies become more fluid, less rigid.

“As we 'enter' the metaverse to be present as ourselves, without the encumbrance or enhancement of our physical form, not only will our everyday self-expression change—our sense of self will expand. We will feel that we have multiple selves and psychiatrists and counselors will be brought in to help people deal with multiple self syndrome.

“Wherever we are here, there becomes a transport vehicle. We've seen this movie before, when gamers put on their headphones and were locked in their wards until they needed food, went to the bathroom, or even died.

“The Metaverse or Mirror Worlds will fundamentally change human society by creating alternatives to ordinary reality. There will likely be multiple alternatives, multiple realities; We can number similar dimensions in equations: reality1, reality2, etc. Human life has become more multidimensional with various technologies, starting with photography and television. When the internet came along, besides working in an office or field where we could go or retire, we had one more thing. But it was still two-dimensional, a screen, an image of something in the real world. The metaverse, once fully developed, will indeed have real-world feel and depth to many; For some - especially those who complain about or are dissatisfied with conventional reality - this may be the most real world, or at least a reasonable alternative to the homes, streets, shops, and buildings in which you live and work. People haven't had or lived with alternatives for very long; we don't have old-based traditions and protocols. We do not decide collectively but only individually how to behave in alternate realities. Coming to this understanding and then embracing it will change human society as few things have changed before.

“First, our sense of place will undergo a profound transformation. In her book The Power of Place, Winifred Gallagher describes how our environment shapes the way we think, feel and act. The place was once the village, the farm, the town square, the forest or the sea. We were guaranteed a spot because that was all we knew; all we could know. The home, the local pub or tavern, the school, the office - these were three-dimensional places, not substitutes; they were our concrete understanding of being somewhere.

“Our devices and screens have already changed our sense of place, of here and there. Here was where I am and there where you are. Now digital environments, websites, apps, Zoom calls and Microsoft Teams meetings are mixed here and there. The Metaverse will accelerate that perception on steroids. Any store you like will have its Metaverse locale like most brands. The act of trying and buying, seeing and buying is complemented and partially replaced by Metaverse fun zones and shopping experiences. We will gain time and convenience; We will lose in terms of physical contact and unplanned encounters.

“Second, our sense of space will shift from being linear – from point A to point B, so many kilometers away – to perceptual, to 'connected'. With the metaverse, like wild nature or exotic animal species, the place disappears. With our current devices, it is already being eroded by time. Instant connectivity (Japanese engineers demonstrated a data transfer rate of 319 terabits per second (Tb/s) over fiber) is a new dimension of time. High-speed connectivity is now catapulting us out of the realm of infinity.

“As of this writing, there are 5.232 billion internet users worldwide; 171 billion emails are sent today; 522 million tweets sent today; 8227 tweets are sent in 1 second and are sent every second today. Connecting to a multitude of devices allows us to ignore or even abandon place in favor of the now. As we do so, our awareness of the place and our place in it shifts. While game environments offer alternative locations (we played there in our graphics-driven imaginations, but it exists here), the now is a neutral location—which takes us into the limbic realm of connectivity itself. When gaming enthusiast Chen Rong-yu sat at his gaming console until he died, we disregarded our physical location - even our physicality - in order to focus intensely on being connected and the experience, the connectivity offers. Here is the world circumscribed by the metaverse: what goes here, what fits here, what catches my attention here. There (formerly place) is now a reflection, a remnant, the remaining hours we waste here.

“Thirdly, our sense of time is compressed and distorted by the changed location. This new dimension of time happily appropriates artifacts from (any) place to give almost any uncharacteristic place the look of a place. In other words, through the metaverse we will experience a connection - not a place - and that connection will only be in time; The place thus becomes an artefact of connection. Speed ​​throws us through time. This is not traditional time measured in hours. It is the time of eternal being here, of infinite being now. In this respect, time becomes a place - it replaces the place with a current landscape of messages, updates, sounds and touches.

“Fourth, the way we present ourselves will undergo profound changes. As Erving Goffman describes in The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life, we put together a performance for the people we meet and interact with every day. There will be new clues, new traps and feints in the metaverse. We can worry less about whether our hair is properly styled and more about buying the right Metaverse outfit for the conference or occasion.

“Much like Tristan Harris' Amplifganda (the latest version of advertising that amplifies something for people to believe), the Metaverse will amplify our need to be immersed, to be inside: in a situation, an environment, a conflict , a celebrity home or a Metaverse destination. Without this sense of immersion, we will feel like we are not there, that we are not fully understanding or participating - just as the internet and video are now bringing us into people's lives, actions and bodies.

“The Metaverse will transform the daily lives of those who are connected, primarily through our sense of place. Even today, since it now exists everywhere, it has disappeared except as a GPS coordinate. Here there now. Pix of some are not on Twitter or Facebook. You're never there anymore; you are here right now Even if you travel there, here you are flipping it with a modern post about how cool it is — but no one is with you. We all join here.

“Living here changes where we live, and the metaverse will only amplify that change. You see it today when people go through life face to face on the phone. You're not at the grocery store or on the avenue. They will not be placed. They have (will we all soon?) be resettled. Time, like instant connectivity or delving into the metaverse, eats away at our awareness of place. For most of human history, there was no alternative to place, just as there was no way to instantly connect with millions of other people on a digital network platform. Being out of place was anathema; Our places, both as functions and as physical places, were fixed, defined by geography, cultural norms, and institutions. It shows how far our present condition has removed us from our history: the now is happily ahistorical.

“The daily life of the Metaversians will be less connected to physical reality. Office buildings, the workplace, will no longer be the only or even the most important place where people work. Retail stores and malls will also not be the primary place where goods are bought, sold and purchased. Of course, this has already happened with the COVID stay-at-home experiences, but the Metaverse will accelerate this development. Connection used to mean how connected our social, personal, and interpersonal networks and experiences were; With the advent of the metaverse, connection means simultaneously connected to the lands, fates, and experiences of the metaverse; and at the same time it means a reduction in intimate and physical connection.

“Being connected means immersing yourself. Like the cyborgs in the Minority Report movie, we will all be underwater, immersed in the substratum of the metaverse. This separation from physical reality will be at the heart of a contradiction that we hope to use to our advantage. As climate change accelerates, the Metaverse can specifically focus on areas that require immediate attention or where mitigation or improvement strategies need to be adjusted. But the irony is hard to miss: as our external climate deteriorates, our inner digital world—the metaverse—will expand and attract more capital.

“Immersion introduces another distortion. That means assessing the reality of a situation, a person, an emotion. There is little doubt that as technology advances, the replication of the reality of the five senses will allow being in the metaverse to be as real a construct as the so-called real world. Metaversarians will then ask themselves: What do I find most real? Where am I in my physical life or where am I in the metaverse? This will fill the offices of psychiatrists and other caregivers with confused and confused patients as Metaverse Syndrome becomes a different type of PTSD.

“Another distortion will be intentional. Any mirror world can be manipulated to become warped. The mirror world, the metaverse, can be intentionally manipulated to show disinformation, misinformation, or outright lies in order to gain control, money, or brute power. As Peter Pomerantsev says in his book This Is Not Propaganda: Adventures in the War Against Reality, when information is a weapon, any opinion is an act of war. For this reason, and related reasons, the metaverse requires an integrity checklist to ensure that what is presented as real is accurate, unbiased, undistorted, and uninfluenced by forces that would attempt to use the metaverse for nefarious means . 🇧🇷

“Presence will be key to how the daily lives of those connected are accessed, observed, transmitted and tracked. With the arrival of the metaverse, we will begin to ask ourselves the strangest questions: Where am I presently? To know the place, we must be present there; that we see a specific place as a unique combination of light, air, smells, sounds, people, experiences. Speed ​​as a dimension of time - imagine: 319 terabits per second - confuses presence. The faster we drive, the less conscious we are, the less we actually live in that place. In this way, time separates us from place and makes it irrelevant. Reality is no longer where we are; it's getting here so fast. Already under significant pressure from rogue dictators who make their countries bleed for money and resources, the rules-based international order will come under increasing pressure as the rules of the previous order meet the realities of the metaverse.”

Two overarching themes emerged in respondents' responses as they pondered the likely fate of the metaverse and augmented reality (XR) by 2040.

The first:Augmented Reality (AR) and Mixed Reality (MR) information layers that can be seamlessly implemented into real-world environments will be widespread in all societies as part of everyday life by 2040, but fully immersive virtual reality (VR) is likely remain a niche domain used primarily for entertainment, meetings, and virtual education and training.

The second:Advances in XR appear to be more driven by the high-tech mega-corporations that own, shape, and control the public spaces of today's internet. Some of these experts said they expected this to add to the already difficult problems emerging from digital life around 2022. They argued that human agency, human rights, personal safety and people's spiritual well-being are at stake as the Metaverse services go even deeper into tracking people's online activities, monetize their every move, exert more influence and Taking control of users' lives and employing more algorithmic techniques to ignite their emotions and passions. This chapter covers the experts' responses to these two topics.

Augmented and mixed reality applications will dominate virtual reality advances in the augmented reality world

A significant portion of these experts predicted that AR and MR information layers, which can be easily implemented in real-world environments, will be more widespread in society than VR by 2040. They predict that AR and MR tools will become increasingly important in the daily lives of tens of millions of people at work, home, school, healthcare, shopping and social engagements.

Many said they expected VR worlds not to have the same utility in 2040, only gaining ground in entertainment, work and education. They pointed out that AR apps can be easily and seamlessly integrated into people's daily lives via mobile devices as real-world additions and enhancements, bringing more and more data into people's real-world experiences. In contrast, they found that the current vision of truly immersive 3D VR involves the use of sophisticated hardware such as goggles or special goggles and wearable tactile and gestural devices, and requires full immersion that transcends the "real world".

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (47)Dimitri Williams, Associate Professor of Technology and Society at the University of Southern California, commented: "As much as I personally love elves and lasers, they are not the future of our everyday lives. Relationships, sex, friendship, work, commuting and community are all, and these are the things that AR overlays will have real impact on.

“The potential for AR is far greater than what's found in fantasy and entertainment-based platforms and pure VR. AR can improve our daily interactions, which will certainly have massive social impacts - many positive and negative at the same time. I think this is where our attention should be.”

Mark R. Miller, a Ph.D. A candidate working at Stanford University's Virtual Human Interaction Lab, whose research examines social interaction and interpersonal communication in augmented and virtual reality, said, "If there's any hope for widespread acceptance of the metaverse, it's in augmented reality and not." in reality. virtual, where the border between worlds is smaller and daily use does not mean, as Marc Weiser says, 'exclusion of desks, offices, other people without glasses and overalls, weather, grass, trees, walks, chance encounters and in general. the infinite richness of the universe.” The driving factor behind the adoption of other social media—phone, Facebook—was not richness and depth, but simpler, low-intensity communication. On the other hand, there is the idea of ​​the metaverse, which occupies as many senses as possible (fully immersive) and is based on synchronous instead of asynchronous communication.”

David J. Krieger, Director of the Institute for Communication and Leadership in Lucerne, Switzerland, commented: “What will become influential and mainstream in many activities are mixed reality or augmented reality applications. Integrating digital information into real-world activities, thereby augmenting reality rather than replacing it with an immersive “second life”, will have many benefits and implications in all areas of life, including work, education, health, etc. The metaverse sacrifices too much reality , leaves too much out of the experience and therefore "costs" more than people are willing to pay and offers less than they can get from augmented reality. I don't think immersive digital spaces will become popular in other important areas of life than gaming and entertainment any time soon."

Tim Bray, Founder and Director of Textuality Services (formerly at Amazon), said: "Why should I cut myself off from the wonders of the real world and those around me when I can maintain that and still have full access to the riches of life online ? , carefully chosen and layered in everything I see around me - or not, my choice? The VR-like metaverse is interesting, but it will have peaked and will start to decline in 2040 as AR has a much deeper impact and pushes VR back into a twitch gaming niche.”

Michael Altman, social and information scientist at MIT's Center for Research in Equitable and Open Scholarship, wrote: “Eyeglasses have been a successful technology since the 14th century. Today VR gear is still much more difficult to use than glasses, maybe weight, volume, reliability, battery life, wireless connectivity and even price could improve enough in 20 years to make it easier to use gear comparable to glasses.

"Shouldn't everyone have magic tech goggles by this point? Very wearable, high-tech goggles could become very popular in well-endowed industrialized countries - but not primarily for use in the metaverse. Instead, cheap and widely available specifications of magical technology would have many uses and benefits in augmenting or "blending" with reality—use of these terms is fluid.

"This can be a huge plus for entertainment - (Tamagotchi 11.0), skilled work (surgery, car maintenance), and in everyday life (Augmented Facial Recognition can be great for those of us who suffer from face blindness or vision loss; maybe not so great for those." of us worried about avoiding a surveillance society). Most of these applications do not require, nor are they enhanced by, full immersion in an audiovisually consistent immersive virtual metaverse.”

Simeon Yates, Director of the Center for Digital Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Liverpool, UK, said: “To function very efficiently in our interactions with digital devices, we don't need a virtual representation of the world to drive. , all previous attempts have failed (e.g. Second Life).

“What is likely to be far more powerful than a 3D metaverse is the integration of computers into more and more devices – making the real world interactive in and of itself. This will be popular, presented physically in artifacts or in virtual overlays - although in some cases the result could be as dystopian as the AR world envisioned in Keiichi Matsuda's Hyper-Reality short film.

“So will there be some VR environments in 2040? Yes indeed. Will they be comprehensive? Not. It's not like being online dominates every aspect of my life. I hike to be on real hills, I ride my bike to stay in shape and I do it best in the local national park. I work more from home using Zoom, but man, being on campus is better.

"Of course humans adapt, and kids who grew up with VR and the metaverse might actually love the existence of 'Ready Player One'. Then it can become ubiquitous. But actually I think like many other technologies it will be the domain of the wealthiest/elite if it has great value (access is limited and what happens there is privileged - either in terms of wealth or "private rights" , meaning of privilege) – and/or the dominance of the less fortunate when it's a great avenue for control or exploitation (VR Mechanical Turk work, VR 'Gig Economy').”

Steve Says, a professor of information science at Syracuse University specializing in sociotechnical systems, wrote: “The future is about a blended experience of the physical and the digital. By 2040, we will have transitioned to a more continuous, expanded layering of digital skills on top of real-world experiences. The Metaverse focuses on taking attention away from physical reality.”

Markus Johnson, technology consultant, administrator and consultant, wrote: “People don't want to go about their daily business in artificial worlds. Instead, real life, enhanced by digital overlays, is becoming more and more useful; Think more immersive YouTube how-to videos.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (48)Andre Tutt, a legal expert and author of An FDA for Algorithms, wrote: "Assuming advances in technology, the most likely metaverse will be a 'blended reality' metaverse, in which the real world and a digital world are blended together. in different configurations. With today's technology, we see this in a very limited way.

“During COVID, many restaurants have replaced physical menus with QR codes that could be used to open a menu on a phone and then order from the phone menu. This will be even more integrated and virtualized. Any flat surface has the potential to become a screen, any blank sheet of paper has the potential to become a printed document with virtual text overlaid on it, any empty space has the potential to become a conference room with people not physically around are present. Bedroom.

"I don't see a huge appetite for moving large parts of physical life to a metaverse environment, at least until 2040. Instead, I predict that we will overlay the real world with a data-rich virtual world that augments the real world. Some examples of how this might work: Imagine finding a forgotten acquaintance at a party and being able to instantly and discreetly find their name and other important information about them at the touch of a button; or to be able to quickly and easily find out the make, model, price and possibly even the owner of a car by taking a picture of it; or be able to identify and name a plant growing in a roadside garden; or be able to virtually visit a museum, remote location or historic site; or the ability to collaborate with friends and colleagues on remote projects in empty spaces where they are “virtually” present with you.

"I'm saying all of this as a foreword because I still think it's a 'metaverse' and important. But it's not the "split 3D virtual world" that some imagine when they talk about the metaverse. While I can imagine there will be some of these platforms (e.g. possibly fully virtualized venues for concerts, karaoke or parties), I think they will be more in line with what we already see today as discrete experiences in our larger see real universe .

“A group of friends from around the world can go on a virtual safari in a video game instead of traveling to South Africa on a real safari together, but this experience will be discreet (like buying a travel package), not integrated into a single unified virtual one World".

Paul Brigner, head of US policy and strategic defense at Electric Coin Company (which aims to support technologies that give the public access to a fair and open currency), responded: “Outside of gaming, I expect AR and MR to have the greatest potential for transformative change in society by 2040. I have my doubts that Meta will successfully drive the transition; Instead, I think Apple, Google and others are much more likely to lead.”

Kyle Rosa, Principal Architect at Akamai Technologies, said, “Augmented Reality? Yes indeed. Virtual reality? Not. I doubt people want to live in cyberspace, but I believe people will use AR devices to supplement the information they get from their existing senses.

Ricardo Muller, CEO and Managing Director of Telematica, a technology and business strategy consultancy, wrote: “I have no doubt that XR (VR, AR and a multitude of specific applications for these technologies) will be an important part of how we do business and consume our society. However, I also believe that the "fully immersive" and fully self-contained teaching of VR will continue to be disruptive and problematic for end users and therefore will have limited success compared to augmented reality technologies and services."

Robert bell, co-founder of the Intelligent Community Forum, predicted: “Augmented reality will be incredibly useful in a wide range of business, industrial, medical, scientific, etc. This includes wearing glasses that unobtrusively enhance what you see, hear and play with data when the wearer so chooses. There are also many dystopian possibilities that many books and films have explored. But there is a strong core value in hands-free access to actionable data that I believe will translate into strong impact.”

Peter Cranston, an independent communications network consultant based in Oxford, UK, wrote: “With mobile phones, partial immersion is the easiest to achieve without the need for full immersion. Many will find this option more attractive.”

Andre Nachison, WeMedia Founder, Executive and Creative Analyst, commented, “I'm not convinced that fully virtual experiences will replace 'real' ones for most people. The transformation of “real” life will be more in line with what we now call augmented reality – layers of information and interaction overlaid on real environments.

"It implies glasses or some sort of visual device, and I have no idea what hardware approaches are going to become mainstream. Even future smartphones can get the job done and be transformative.

“This additional layer of rich data will transform our real-world experience. Answers to everyday trivia are delivered without typing or speaking a Google search. Names, birthdays and important notes about friends - or anyone - can float above it. Maps and directions that are already awesome are integrated into your live view of the real world.

“These types of information services will change our everyday experiences, and some of these changes could change the way we interact with each other — like never forgetting a person's name and background when you meet them.

“I can also imagine the mischievous and dark sides of this world. Doxxing, shaming, and stalking people can get really scary. However, I hope that the 'virtual' is commonplace."

Gregory Maubon, long-time independent consultant in the field of augmented reality and digital coordinator and AI project leader at HCS Pharma, said: “In everyday life, AR will be more useful than VR because it will offer us an easy way to find the right information at the right time. I hope that we will have usable data glasses by then.”

James A. Danowski, President of Communication and Technology Sciences, predicted that interest in VR will not outweigh the appeal of real-world digital overlays, writing, "While there will be much activity in the VR gaming space, the non-game digital world will dominate. Recent talk of the metaverse comes as a result of Facebook's recent attempt to overcome its stagnant user base and the diminishing importance of social media in people's lives. This is a temporary redirect.

“The Metaverse is a long shot coupled with increased social distancing due to COVID. There will be working applications for this in specialized areas, but the initial rise of VR will involve platforms recoup their investment in the metaverse and create the pay-to-play environment with NFTs.

“Users are unlikely to persist in the metaverse unless they can make money there in a digital currency. Secondary economic activity may provide initial growth, but the metaverse will stagnate after the early innovators and adopters leave.”

An internet pioneer and long-time network managerwrote: “Most interactions with social media and the internet today are not immersive, but are related to or complementary to real-world interactions. Some people may desire a fully immersive experience in their homes, but public concerns, both safety and practical, strongly suggest that virtual reality participation will become augmented reality - as AR becomes more mainstream.

“Augmented reality is highly praised but requires intercepting and modifying at least visual and probable audio input to the user. As experience with Google Glass and Facebook glasses has shown, users don't want these devices to be constantly connected to themselves—they appreciate the ability to turn off and put away their mobile devices as much as the ability to turn them on.

“There are important lessons to be learned in the area of ​​wearable watches – users will use their internet-connected watch all the time, but only if it doesn't interfere with the rest of their real life. While improvements in wearable eyewear are to be expected, no one imagines eyewear so benign that the wearer and their friends forget they're wearing them - but that's the implicit premise of digital life "total immersion."

The next-gen connected knowledge ecosystem must be built to serve people better than today's web.

The shift to augmented reality is a shift from the current Web 2.0 (the social web) to what many refer to as Web3 (the XR Web-Plus). In the early years of the web in the 1990s, before it was commercialized, individuals were generally in control of their online interactions. Since the commercialization of online spaces, large technology companies offering centralized platforms have been able to monetize audience contributions and interactions online. This raised significant issues related to privacy, personal security and political maneuvers to polarize the public, and raised concerns about the spread of hate speech, harassment, prejudice and misinformation.

For over a decade, many internet leaders (including web innovator Tim Berners-Lee) have been trying to find new approaches to "re-decentralize" activities online. Yet most of what the Internet's billions of users do online takes place in centralized spaces under the control of mega-corporations and authoritarian governments.

A portion of the experts who took part in this survey said that now is the time to address these societal issues—before the metaverse is fully built. They said the more immersive and fully immersive XR world of the near future will encourage increasing complexity. They expect XR spaces created by commercial interests or authoritarian governments to use AI to exploit individuals in ways that threaten their fundamental agency and well-being.

They argued that there are implicit problems in allowing the principles of market capitalism and political authoritarianism to be key factors in shaping and controlling the world's knowledge ecosystem and networked communications. Some recommended new laws and regulations should protect vulnerable populations from physical and financial exploitation, prevent big tech companies from gaining monopoly power, protect user privacy, give individuals control over their data, and incentivize decentralized systems and services.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (49)Gina Neff, Professor and Director of the Minderoo Center for Technology and Democracy at the University of Cambridge, predicted: “The dark side of the metaverse is that the types of technologies that come together to make it work as a whole will continue to monetize our social privacy. lives, create new modes of surveillance, eliminate regulatory and governmental powers to ensure fairness, justice and protection for citizens, and cede more power to corporations that are already the most powerful in human history.

“Right now we are witnessing a rewrite of fundamental social contracts about trust and democracy. Powerful narratives about life in the metaverse combine new ways of experiencing social connections with new forms of "trust without trust" from the hundreds of small contracts and exchanges we must make each day.

“Where is the public, where is the social center in a world we are told we can rearrange and reconfigure at will? There will certainly be so many wonderful positive things as well.”

Brian Haberman, network architect and board member of the Internet Society, senior research scientist at the Applied Physics Laboratory at Johns Hopkins University, predicted: "Although the technology for instantiating the metaverse is developing rapidly, little work is being done to address the problems that prevent it a far." widespread adoption of the metaverse.

“Existing social media platforms clearly demonstrate the challenges for these immersive technologies being adopted at scale. These challenges include complex issues such as trust, attribution, data lineage, identity management, and personal information management.

“The fully immersive digital life will exacerbate the current ills of social media platforms (disinformation, bullying, espionage, etc.). The underlying XR technologies will develop in niche markets and make dramatic contributions. Technologies that require massive computing resources are being reconsidered as more industries and users understand their massive impact on the environment.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (50)Alexandre B. Howard, director of the Digital Democracy Project, wrote: “As with the emerging systems currently being used as virtual concentration camps by authoritarians in modern surveillance states, it is possible that a metaverse could empower authoritarians, billions of people in silicon prisons surrounded by the unseen Barbed wire ruled by opaque algorithmic regulation and giant artificial intelligences.

“All of these devices, our activities on them, the sensors on them, and the urban environment around us and above us combine to form an embedded internet, where we leave digital fatigue with every action or movement. Similar to the smartphones and data collection practices of 2022, people don't need to wear goggles, smart glasses, or other wearable computers to be impacted by the addition of more cameras, sensors, and internet-connected autonomous devices in public and private spaces. .

“It will represent a bounty for nations and states that enact data laws that protect children, consumers, citizens and seniors as they move through these sensorized spaces. While dystopian outcomes are not guaranteed, there is a growing risk that failures in collective action will result in exploits by malicious actors (such as today's ransomware and spear-phishing) becoming even more pernicious as human activity increases to be tracked as we navigate a planet. superimposed with a metaverse".

A senior architect whose focus is on cybersecuritysaid, "As the metaverse becomes more and more connected to the real world, it could do harm to the real world, and I don't think we currently have the necessary protections and architecture in place to deal with that."

“Given the advances in internet technology (speed, latency, availability) along with the advances in AR/VR and AI/ML [artificial intelligence and machine learning] techniques, it is a natural progression that the virtual world continues to evolve for us is used to explore and express our need for communication, information, and attention. This will probably not be an easy path.

“We need to assess and address the moral and ethical ramifications along the way. We need to understand the privacy and security implications. Today we are more driven by profits and big corporations, which can have very detrimental effects. However, I remain cautiously optimistic that we will be able to further develop this metaverse as a collective serving the greater good.”

SteveWilson, founder of Lockstep Consulting and vice president and senior analyst at Constellation Research specializing in digital identity and privacy, wrote, “The metaverse is probably not something for commercial interests to delve into. It must be able to develop ecologically. Social media, digital spaces, digital reach and immediacy can be wonderful. We need to triangulate the best of human organization and digital technology to synthesize a true virtual reality ecosystem.”

James Hochschwender, Futures Strategist at Expansion Consulting, said: “The abuse of metaverse by companies like Facebook (Meta) can undermine independent thinking and create a form of enslavement of that company's economic and cultural ecosystem.

“It will be the same as we have seen on social media, the bad guys will take advantage of the less smart and incorporate disinformation to serve their own purposes of control. It will need global standards, regulation and oversight on a scale not yet found on Earth if it is to avoid being destructive rather than constructive to society.

“The metaverses can take over the lives of many people to the extent that they would no longer live in the physical world but would spend most of their lives entirely in the metaverses of their choice. This could lead to the desocialization of large numbers of people and the collapse of the entire fabric of society.”

A co-leader of a major AI policy group convened by the US governmentsaid: "I have no doubt that technology will be more immersive and that digital life will continue to invade our physical lives. Will this create more positive or more negative? Given the evidence that the current internet environment allows for both global nationalism and a greater concentration of wealth at the top, and the added psychological clout and power to delve deeper into a "metaverse," it's hard to believe its positives aspects of doing this will outweigh the negative.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (51)read give me, Professor of Information Studies at UCLA, wrote, "The entire Metaverse perspective is presented in breathless, escapist terms as a fun new way to avoid or overcome the meanness of reality - perhaps to appeal to those who are feeling jaded and fearful." feel the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the resurgence of violent authoritarian and nationalist politics, and the decline in trust in institutions or in one another.

"This promotional tactic may reflect the ongoing digital utopianism of the extraordinarily wealthy and influential 'tech titans', investors and walled-garden models who have come to dominate most people's experience and understanding of the Internet and its possibilities (the same people, presenting space travel and planetary colonization as the ultimate escape for a select few - oy).

"It's very interesting to me that right now - alongside social media, research, online entertainment and the market power of a handful of titanic corporations - are facing serious public criticism and backlash for the social, political and psychological damage they have wreaked – the idea of ​​the metaverse is somewhat cynically propagated as the “next” internet and thus the solution to all your current problems. But when owners, users, infrastructure and devices are well anchored, they really do offer more of the same, only more.”

Alex Halaves, associate professor of Data & Society at Arizona State University and past president of the Association of Internet Researchers, wrote: "The downside of this development is already very clear: Meta's attempt to fence off the garden of the metaverse is dangerous. A lot of effort should be put into building the Wikipedia of Metaverses - a platform where users have a significant say in how things are built, a platform that remains solid enough to support predictable interactions. Platforms that infect these spaces with ads or make them accessible only to the fittest are challenging.”

Andi Opel, Professor of Communications at Florida State University, wrote: "While the specters of corporate control, data mining, privacy fears, and predatory capitalism haunt these emerging spaces, just as they continue to haunt much of our daily life outside of the metaverse, the power and that is The potential of these tools is too profound to dismiss due to their corporate ties. These digital spaces must become another front in the ongoing struggle to democratize our media systems, break down monopoly control, and close the digital divide.

“Bell Telephone existed from 1877 to 1983 and eventually disbanded, sparking the explosion of the digital age. Long-distance telephone communication has changed the world, and immersive media tools will be just as revolutionary in their impact. We must not wait 100 years to confront, question, and demand change with systems of containment and control that exclude the public and constrain creativity and innovation.”

An applied science director whose work focuses on identifying and mitigating problems arising from technological changesaid: "The biggest concern for our future is that the platform companies that have the clout to build these systems, who have not yet demonstrated their ability to build platforms responsibly with far less potential impact on society." operate, apparently believe that they can operate platforms metaverse responsibly. This is almost certainly not the case, and when it does, there will be a lot of damage. Politicians, other market participants and the public must proactively prevent this.”

Professor of public policy at a leading US technology universitysaid: "The Metaverse may be 'fully immersive' and cleverly 'refined' by 2040, but it will be designed to extract information and dollars from those who enter." For some, this may be a "well-functioning aspect of everyday life," but it offers tremendous uncontrolled power to those who control it.

“The proponents of the metaverse barely disguise their motives, and at this point there are no restrictions on what means (behavioural, cognitive, even coercive, but certainly not with truly informed consent) are used to exploit their unsuspecting participants.

“There is no reason to expect legislative or judicial bodies to understand these systems, to respond to them quickly, or to cope with the financial pressures that come with this new way, with this fundamental change in the way people relate to one another and interact with reality, benefit world. ."

Terri Horton, Founder and CEO of FuturePath LLC, said: “In theory, the metaverse of the future could enable a more inclusive and safe work environment, support work-life balance and meaningful work, drive collaboration beyond traditional boundaries, and be a catalyst for innovation. However, if not carefully designed, corporations run the risk of creating work environments in the metaverse that exacerbate social issues and prejudices that exist in the physical world.

“Issues of corporate surveillance, access to worker biographical data, privacy, data security, mental health implications, identity and reputation theft can have extremely detrimental effects on organizations, workers and society. As such, these significant vulnerabilities must be addressed as the future of work continues to evolve through 2040.”

An expert in the evolution of algorithmspredicts: “Even more worrisome are the geopolitical challenges that are becoming more evident in the ways in which states are increasingly enforcing their control and surveillance of online spaces and populations. Each further immersion in online spaces increases the potential for that control to expand, and the proliferation of alternative forms of currency/exchange creates additional pressures on government systems and controls.”

Some respondents consider it unlikely that anything can be done about these problems

John Sniadowski, a UK-based systems architect, replied: “The opaque nature of large international companies such as Google, Meta (Facebook) and Amazon makes it deliberately difficult for governments and politicians to enact comprehensive controls to control and allow better scrutiny of their data manipulation. Markets to their benefit, often exclusively, and to the detriment of competition and society as a whole.

“Most of the negative aspects of social media technologies are now being used by governments to create surveillance systems unparalleled in human history. In many cases, this happens without the consent or even the awareness of the citizens. It is driven by international corporations selling technology to oppressive governments to enhance their profits in the corporate market, to meet statutory fiduciary requirements to maximize their market values.

“Every technology, from the simplest to the extremely complex, has light and dark applications. The more complex the technology, the greater the potential for nefarious applications in warfare, social discontent, and the development of citizen control systems even more opaque than those being created by the corporations helping to develop them. This is a major obstacle to the development of a just and egalitarian metaverse that truly enriches the everyday lives of citizens and contributes unequally to the dark side usage paradigm.

“As the metaverse is developed and deployed, there will be inevitable twists and turns in use cases as it is in the interest of oppressive governments and other organizations to bend technology to their nefarious ends. Legislation will always be in a defensive mode of modernization, unable to move fast enough to control the negative aspects of technology deployment.

"The inability of political structures to avoid the phrase 'one size fits all' will inevitably propel the metaverse into areas of oppression rather than enhancing the human experience."

There was some resistance to the 2021-2022 moves from venture capitalists and entrepreneurs, who started a "gold rush" by claiming that Web3 will be decentralized and then touting the riches to be found in the metaverse in combination with blockchain, cryptocurrencies and not fungible token (NFT ).

SteveWilson, Founder of Lockstep Consulting, stated, “Decentralization is a buzzword that needs to be unwrapped. Some things cannot be easily or meaningfully decentralized; Re-centering is a natural and powerful state that is seen over and over again in this space. See the rise of Airbnb brokers, private blockchains like Hyperledger and Corda dominating businesses, crypto wallet platforms hugely popular and defying ideals – see Moxie Marlinspike's analysis by Web3.

“The maintenance of a decentralized state requires energy (labor) for all sorts of reasons—thermodynamic, economic, ecological, sociological. Any system that insists on decentralization needs to have exceptionally good logic to make the work worthwhile, and it needs to be very focused on what is being decentralized in order to efficiently use the vast amount of energy involved.

“NFTs are exemplary here: the idea of ​​bringing originality to digital artifacts is extremely strategic, almost the holy grail, but the way NFTs do this is political. Digital signatures curated by a central administrator are much more efficient than NFTs, but not as palatable as they bind all participants to a managed schema.

“When a metaverse is implemented on a platform, there are central administrators behind the green curtain. Ultra decentralization is just a party trick under these circumstances. A key element will be digital originality. NFTs offer originality through crowdsourcing, but like cryptocurrencies, they don't operate in a vacuum, and there are many magical considerations about how NFTs can ensure fairness for makers and authors. We can provide proof of originality in other ways, albeit centrally managed, but that’s how digital civilization will roll.”

Gregory Maubon, a long-time independent augmented reality consultant and digital coordinator and AI project lead at HCS Pharma, wrote: “I have my doubts about the promises of seeing decentralization in virtual worlds because we hear the same song in the launch of the original web and web 2.0 Device advancements will simplify access to immersive digital worlds. Around 2040 it will be normal to use virtual places as if you were working in real companies.”

Christine evil, an independent scholar, wrote: “The patterns repeat themselves. First came the walled gardens of the early Internet: CompuServ, America Online, and Prodigy. Then came the biggest tech companies (formerly known as FAANG - short for Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google). These entities own the platform, host the service, and control the search results. Some say Web3 will be a new distributed model powered by blockchain, NFTs and the power of cryptocurrency mining. They say the ledger is distributed and shipped everywhere with perfect fidelity. But that's not the pattern I see.

“The engineers who built the early Internet created a distributed infrastructure with packages, unified resource locators, open source, shared building blocks, and searchable pages. It was Lo-Tek, as sci-fi writer William Gibson would say, but Lo-Tek with distributed power. Sir Tim Berners-Lee published his binding protocols for free (just as Salk published the polio vaccine). Almost immediately entrepreneurs tried to build centralized ownership interests on it to monetize it. But they could not figure out how to bring a counter to the Internet smoothly.

“However, Web3's deep infrastructure has monopoly capitalism in its DNA. The blockchain ledger promises ways to consolidate wealth and free it from the scrutiny of governments and currency regulators. But this consolidation is the opposite of distribution. A true distributed model grows a new or larger pie. A consolidation model cuts and swaps pieces of the same pie over and over again. The NFTs pledge to honor property by fencing off the Wild West while letting the bison roam free. They get charged every time the herd goes over an invisible fence.

“Blockchain inventors claim they can distribute these objects while consolidating money for speculators, e.g. B. by betting on stocks or commodity futures. They also rely on high ecological CO2 costs for power generation and maintenance. Killing one environment to build another, a virtual black market e-commerce system hidden from oversight, regulation and taxes? They will build immersive environments and interactive physical or virtual objects because they bet that values ​​will grow.

“Due to aggressive advertising, immersive platforms can gain a following, but I don't think they have the power to keep users in any kind of bondage except through dodgy UX [user experience] standards or manipulative AI. Gaming interfaces already do that, but the blockchain system itself is a big casino, a ponzi bet. Here's why: blockchain items are distributed with ledgers attached, but the ledgers themselves aren't truly nonlinear distributed things. Instead, your core record can be added but not modified.

“Blockchain ledgers move like non-linear, roving bison, but they don't propagate, clone, branch, or merge again. Our wandering blockchain bison is getting heavier and heavier, picking up ridges, weeds and mud from the wallow. We like the permanence of its record, its chain of hyper-extended linearity that preserves a single authoritative record over time.

“But centralization is the opposite of a distributed system. In this world the past is fixed, recorded. Only the future can change. Revisionist history is not allowed. The recorded past has all the authority - the deep myth of blockchain - which is inherently conservative.

“One thing we know from personal experience, if not from Marshall McLuhan, is that the medium, its deeper structures, and its biases, blind spots, and biases shape us as much, if not more, than we shape them . Because of this, we cannot let AI agents roam free to learn our broader culture. Agents learn too well, they are too perfect a mirror of society and in a short time they become fascists, authoritarians, inflexible and abusive. Because that's what we are.

“Could a blockchain metaverse survive the day? Yes indeed. Didn't Alexander Hamilton's central bank defeat Thomas Jefferson's ideal of distributed democracy?

"If the builders of Web3 think that a more immersive Second Life will be attractive because the shops and commerce are there, then I have a dead mall to sell them to. More likely, they will take us back to 1999 with hope and enthusiasm and then suddenly decide that returns have not reached forecast levels and values ​​will fall, as pyramid schemes often do.

Paul Brigner, head of US policy and strategic advocacy at Electric Coin Company (which aims to support technologies that give the public access to a fair and open currency), responded, “I don't expect the move to XR to begin with a Transition to XR comes with a blockchain-based Web3 ecosystem.

“Although many people are merging XR and Web3, I believe that XR is relatively more mature and will become popular much sooner through traditional centralized architectures. I see the pros and cons of this transition as a reflection of what we are generally experiencing, albeit perhaps amplified, in the transition to connected living.”

Ellery Roberts Biddle, project leader at Ranking Digital Rights, wrote: “The early development of the internet and other network technologies in the late 1990s and early 2000s was shrouded in techno-utopianism, the idea that these technologies would benefit society as a whole by creating a new... create and somewhat more equal opportunities where people would be freer to express ideas, form communities and movements and build businesses.

“Most of the people who envisioned these benefits were white males living in cosmopolitan areas of the industrialized West, often affiliated with elite universities. Twenty years later, it's not hard to see what really happened here - in fact, this utopia was little more than a cloak.

“Out of these elite circles have emerged some of the most powerful technology companies in the world, transforming the way the internet has evolved and evolved, truly making it a place where profits (and profit-incentive-driven algorithms) run the day.”

A computer scientistsaid, "The Metaverse is no longer fully developed. It would assume that more people want to entrust their lives to big tech companies and trust big tech companies. It also assumes that people want to live in a less tactile world.”

Those who fear that corporate and government interests will continue to control the development of these systems, as they have done for the past few decades, believe that the online development of AI-XR amplifies or even amplifies the current system's shortcomings, more creates challenges and limits human rights and freedom autonomy.

An anonymous intervieweeshared an excerpt from an essay by journalist Tom Valovic entitled "Why We Should Reject Mark Zuckerberg's Dehumanizing Vision of a "Metaverse."“:

“The internet today is increasingly about social control, reliance on technology for profit, surveillance and sometimes cynical manipulation of hearts and minds by corporations. ... These questions require critical thinking to decide what kind of world we want to live in, since the mass of humanity is not asked whether these invasive technologies are acceptable or desirable.

“Somehow, through the seemingly unstoppable momentum of technology running amok, we must find a way to return to a way of life that maintains the use of limited and intelligent technology where appropriate, without allowing it to override the core values ​​of humanity sets that are still appreciated.

“Facebook's new moniker, Meta, is short for Metaverse, a major shift in technology and culture that Big Tech is trying to force on everyone who uses the internet. In the words of a friend who works for another big tech giant, this new direction is "terrifying." ... This is a seismic shift. It is slated to become the dominant paradigm for human communication, migrating our business, social, and cultural lives from physical environments to online environments. 🇧🇷

"This sea change in the way we live our lives is something no one will vote for as a new and unprecedented mode of technocratic governance begins, many of the functions of traditional government and, I believe, even democracy itself to replace.

"[This is] nothing short of an attempt to create an alternate 'reality' distinct from the physical one we live in now. Of course, this new reality is only accessible to paying customers who are able to buy and understand it. It is a technology created by elites and for elites, implicitly outperforming much of humanity. 🇧🇷

“As more corporate control was imposed, Internet-based technology began to subtly invade our personal spheres in exchange for the fist bargain of a range of new technological 'conveniences'. Technologies like Alexa, but making life impossible without them...hence the notion of a metaverse.

“In collaboration with big tech elites and social engineers, this next big initiative will be even more intrusive and dehumanizing, and will be conducted under the rubric of a fraudulent philosophy called transhumanism — a set of values ​​that have declared our own humanity to be flawed. and need to be technologically improved.”

Llewellyn Kriel, CEO of TopEditor International, a media services company based in Johannesburg, South Africa, said: “Like most aspects of XR, the in-womb metaverse is doomed because it fundamentally threatens basic human nature. As long as amoral bots and unresponsive antisocial AI define the metaverse, it must be fought in any way possible. However camouflaged, sweetened and advertised, it remains a threat to humanity.”

An AI expert leading a foundation dedicated to supporting and advancing open source knowledgecommented, "The Metaverse looks to me like rampant capitalism trying to get even crazier. Cool but amok. Facebook has already proven that you can build a hugely popular social network that's both dystopian and valuable; Getting half a billion people to switch to VR should be a piece of cake.

“Would you like to know how this will change your life? what's the point Well, Facebook has already shown something. It can be dystopian and valuable. Some people will use it to exploit others. Others, like my wife, only use it to chat with friends around the world. Of course, networking with friends is really cool; Meanwhile, wars rage, dictators rise and, oh, did I mention there is solid evidence that the climate is changing and not for the better?”

Brooke Foucault Welles, Associate Professor of Communications at Northeastern University, said, "I worry that we are already repeating the exclusionary and biased practices that plague today's social web. Businesses are replacing or buying bespoke Metaverse platforms. Experiences loved by women, children, people of color, people with disabilities (and indeed anyone other than a cisgender white man) are dismissed as not “serious” or “important” metaverses.

“And centralized corporate control emphasizes expensive equipment and a limited set of experiences that prioritize competition, consumption and productivity. This almost certainly guarantees that the Metaverse(s) of 2040 will not be diverse, inclusive, or accessible. It's a shame, because there's so much potential for metaverse to envision and embody the full breadth and joy of the human experience in ways we've missed with previous technological shifts."

Cathy Cavanaugh, Chief Technology Officer at the Lastinger Center for Learning at the University of Florida, said, "We have learned that when IT companies partner with governments and corporations to bring a technology, consumers first have a choice to embrace the new technology to develop and implement. and then often lose the option to stop using the new technology as it replaces the older technology.

“In 2022 there is enough momentum, excitement and funding behind the XR that this launch and narrowing of options seems likely. It is unclear in which spaces and aspects acceptance and narrowing of life are most likely. Certainly in entertainment, including sports, arts and media, as well as personal communications and commerce among the wealthiest consumers this decade.

“It is unclear if the adoption and uptake of XR in government, work, research and education has reached tipping points given the current cost and complexity of XR technology. As with previous communication technologies, XR can increase human presence in the long-distance connection while increasing isolation and overall human distance in life. And it could be another example of technology benefiting privileged people while marginalizing those with less wealth.”

Andre Nachison, Founder of WeMedia, Executive and Creative Analyst, said: “Will the parallel virtual space that people call the metaverse be the cultural hub like the internet is today, or just a big subculture like video games are now? I suspect the latter. Given what we know about business and technology, it also seems likely that a handful of companies will eventually dominate. There can be more than one Metaverse, but not many.

Peter Cranston, an independent communications network consultant based in Oxford, UK, said: “The promise of social media and other elements of Web 2.0 has been partially realized at best, due to the nature of winner-takes-all capitalism. One region – the United States – had a head start, and the dominance of the English language on the internet in the early 21st century, along with the development of tools that enabled highly profitable business models based on the monetization of surveillance, meant that a small number that corporations would dominate the space delineated by Web 2.0. The Chinese Web 2.0 somewhat mirrors the English-speaking world, albeit within enormous limitations imposed by the Chinese state.

“Chinese web tools, including those connected to immersive digital spaces, will play a much bigger role in the next phase of development. It is likely that there are other local or national competitors from other parts of the world, other BRICs and possibly Europe. The nature of these immersive spaces will be different and reflect different cultures.”

An expert in complex systems, games and collaborative learningcommented, "In the 1990s we had multi-user domains (MUDs), text-based virtual worlds built by people creating them together for fun in online communities. The most famous was LambdaMOO, a blank canvas upon which a charismatic founder could build a rich and vibrant community, with all the action you see in the Metaverse - but only in text. Which creative form has more impact, the book or the film?

"Why isn't the current metaverse expanding? In my view, the system should be distributed and federated. There should be communities running on tiny, affordable computers like the Raspberry Pi that can connect to a metropolis running on much more powerful computers. Also, developing dynamic 3D content right now is much more difficult than writing/programming dynamic content in the text-based MUD environment of the 90's. Back then, being “in the zone” in the text chat environment was much better than conversations today. Nod if you can hear me, enter zoom.

(Video) METAVERSE and the FUTURE of the INTERNET | What is the METAVERSE | Metaverse EXPLAINED

“The mechanics of Second Life are so disturbing. Today's gamers only think about how to get value out of the place without thinking much about the necessary software infrastructure. I don't think these problems will be solved by 2040. Maybe the 0.1% are trying to turn the world into a dust bowl to make the metaverse the better alternative.

Professor of Digital Humanities at one of the most prestigious computer science schools in the United States.wrote: “The environmental and social costs are staggering. We have to wake up. AWAKEN! DO NOT keep going further and further into fantasy land. The physical, real world is a beautiful place. Why is everyone running to escape her?”

Dana Boyd, Founder and President of the Data & Society Research Institute and Senior Investigator at Microsoft, commented, "Tl;dr: 'Snow Crash' was a dystopian novel."

It should be notedthat on June 21, 2022, after these experts wrote their answers, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, PlayStation, Sony, Epic Games, Adobe, and dozens of other large, medium, and small tech companies joined the leading open standards groups, including World Wide Web Consortium, Open Geospatial Consortium, Web 3D Consortium and others announce formationMetaverse-Muster-Forum, a group that its organizers said is intended to ensure interoperability in the Metaverse. Two big players, Apple and Google, were not founding members of this group. MSF's stated goal is to encourage consensus-based collaboration to define and align different technologies, which requires a constellation of interoperability standards created and maintained by many standards organizations. The announcement made no mention of whether ethical design standards and business practices will be part of the action plan.

The experts involved in this study wrote hundreds of pages of thought-provoking insights into the potential future of augmented reality and how these tools and society could evolve over the next 18 years. They were very divided on whether or not the Metaverse will be a much more sophisticated and fully immersive and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world by 2040.

The next two sections of this report focus on insights shared by 1) respondents who predict that by 2040 the metaverse will likely be a bit more widespread and advanced, and 2) those who say no. Each of these sections has several subsections that are linked to common themes that emerge from the insights of these experts.

About half of these experts surveyed support the idea that by 2040, the metaverse will be a fully immersive aspect of everyday life for many. Many who expect augmented reality (AR), mixed reality (MR), and virtual reality (VR) to make significant advances predict that these advances will come as a natural progression of current innovations. They observed that people have always been motivated to push boundaries and seek new experiences, to advance and improve their daily lives, and to strive for profit and power. So, they said, it's only natural that forays into interactivity will continue to expand and evolve, spurred on by technological inventions and ample funding.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (52)André Koch, Executive Director of the Gardner Institute, wrote: "Talking and writing about the metaverse in 2022 is not very different from what it must have been discussing 'the Internet' in 1978. Back then, the basic components of this new form of technology were being built, but no one really had any idea what an internet-based reality (virtual or real) would look like 10, let alone 20 years later.

“With this context and my knowledge of the metaverse being framed and shaped by the cyberspace environment in which the metaverse now exists, I see the metaverse as an integral part of the evolution of cyberspace. I don't see the metaverse as innovative or revolutionary as the internet did in the 1970s, but rather as an evolutionary leap.

“Comparing the future metaverse to cyberspace today is no different than comparing electric vehicles to cars powered by internal combustion engines—the means of propulsion are very different, but the concept and even many of the components are the same. As of this writing, I see the metaverse as essentially part of cyberspace in the year 2040. Maybe by then nobody would call the metaverse "the metaverse" -- they could just say it's the "Internet" or "cyberspace."

“Admittedly, it will be in cyberspace that VR and tools like heads-up displays will shape and inform how we work, play, shop, etc. But it will still be cyberspace. In other words, metatools and approaches will become synonymous with the cyber experience in 2040. And nobody's going to call them "meta" - sorry, Mark Zuckerberg.

“Changes from the metaverse to and in cyberspace will bring and/or increase the importance of new pieces of internet infrastructure – including but not limited to distributed ledger technologies (aka blockchain). This is because virtual reality will require virtual currencies and other forms of accounting and transactional mechanisms. Blockchain, or some variant of distributed ledger technology, will be the primary basis for exchanges in the Metaverse.”

Jim Kennedy, senior vice president of strategy at the Associated Press, responded, "It would be a mistake to view Rise of the Metaverse as merely an extension of early forays like Second Life, or to confine it primarily to the gaming world. Once we've learned something about the Internet, it's not where things start, it's where they lead. That can be said of most apps or devices introduced by the original Web and Web 2.0, and it will no doubt be the case for Web3.

"It might be more helpful, and certainly more exciting, to think of the metaverse not as virtual reality, but as a new reality in its own right. The things that will be created there and the things that we will do there will be real in a very real sense. And in this context it can become a domain for work and leisure.

“Simulations of all kinds, training and virtual events are the first obvious opportunities to explore. Producing new immersive consumer content is a huge opportunity for entertainment, sports and news providers.

“The limiting factor at the beginning is the necessary equipment. Headphones and gadgets are unlikely to see widespread adoption. But integration with other devices or presentations that can be played in real rooms via mobile devices or modern televisions can quickly democratize access.

“And of course the new world will be a place to create new intellectual property that can not only be viewed, but bought and sold. This is where the blockchain comes into play. It might even improve in the physical world, allowing for fractional ownership and rights-managed derivative works.”

Aymar Jean Christian, associate professor of communications at Northwestern University and advisor to the Center for Critical Race Digital Studies, predicted, “The metaverse is an extension of the evolution of the Internet, e.g. B.Web3. Based on blockchain technology, Web3 is the next evolution of the web and enables information/privacy protection in a decentralized way. This is the foundation for platforms and individuals alike to dive into the internet from anywhere and make decentralized data movement more secure.

"This 'immersion' will not only involve the use of VR headsets. Instead, digital communication will be even more present in everyday life, as all our devices can transmit, store and output data in real time more effectively and securely.”

John McNutt, Professor Emeritus of Public Policy and Management at the University of Delaware, replied: “In a way, you can see that in our lives today. This will be more of a redefinition of how life unfolds than a technological transformation.”

Terri Horton, Founder and CEO of FuturePath LLC, predicted hopefully: “In the future we will experience much of how we live in a virtual 3D world. The Metaverse will enable fundamental changes in how and where we work, learn, socialize, play, travel and engage in daily activities.

“It will blur the lines between the virtual world and the physical world. While we cannot fully predict the future, there are signs that the world of work will change significantly by 2040. The impact on employers and workers will be profound.

“In the metaverse of the future, workers will not only work remotely, but will also be able to 'teleport' themselves anywhere in the world and experience work at virtual 3D locations of their choosing. Employees can design their avatars and holograms, work, attend meetings, and interact with colleagues and customers from around the world.

“The VR, AR, MR, AI and other futuristic technologies that enable these interactions will be advanced enough that interactions in the metaverse will mimic the physical world, for example in the context of sight, hearing and touch. Additionally, in the future, brain-computer interface technologies will eventually enable workers to think about and perform work-related actions, leading to high levels of efficiency and productivity. These examples are just small snapshots of how the work experience will change.”

Dirk Lueth, co-founder and co-CEO of Upland, one of the largest and most dynamic metaverse platforms mapped to the real world, wrote: “The metaverse will become part of our everyday lives. We will go “there” for entertainment, earning much of our income by providing different types of services, selling digital and physical items (since the two worlds get confused), and socializing. The metaverse will always be with us as a companion, technology will connect us to it in the right way/with the right toolset depending on the current state. We may even have implants that eliminate the need for external devices.”

Daniel Castro, vice president and director of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation's Data Innovation Center, wrote, "No more zoom fatigue! Immersive digital spaces can create a more "personal" experience for people communicating remotely.

“It will enable better relationships and healthier communication than is possible with today's technology. It will also allow people to have more control over how they present themselves to the world — through avatars, digital clothing, hairstyles, etc., which many people will buy, creating a thriving virtual economy for creators.”

Johannes Robb, owner and senior analyst of the Global Guerrillas Report, which covers the intersection of technology, war and politics, predicted: “In 2040 there will be an AR/VR mix, but it will be mostly AR, with apps that use digital overlays of the apply existing reality. This is being rolled out just as quickly as smartphones, but with a lot more impact. By 2040, it will shape the work and private lives of more than 3 billion people. By then, half a billion people will be making a living working, selling, etc. in this environment.”

Jim White, Professor of Sociology and Anthropology and Director of the Institute for Immigration Research at George Mason University, replied: “There will be bugs along the way (e.g. Google Glass) but the metaverse is here to stay. The fact that you can experience things in the metaverse that are not possible in your "first life" is both promising and risky.

“Many people first saw the power of the metaverse in Second Life's online community, but even before that computer scientists were building VR experiences in labs using specialized and expensive hardware and software. In science fiction, Neal Stephenson wrote about the metaverse in Snow Crash and a decade earlier in Neuromancer, and one of William Gibson's protagonists, Case, drifts in and out of cyberspace. Gibson's novel Pattern Recognition features a female protagonist, Cayce, and the line between the real and the virtual has been completely blurred.

“It is immaterial whether art imitates life or whether life follows art. They are inseparable.”

Gary Marchionini, dean of the School of Information and Library Science at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, responded: “People have a natural tendency to maximize work and play experiences. These tendencies vary according to physical, psychological, spiritual, and economic characteristics. The technologies that have made work and play more effective and fun will attract interest and investment.

“Metaverse technologies offer tremendous areas of application and customization, ranging from cognitive amplification to emotionally intense immersions and extreme escapism. Technology will continue to advance and become more accessible to larger segments of the population, and people will surely use it to work smarter or to oblivion themselves.

“The effects of this range from extremely positive to highly destructive for individuals and society. I worry about dissociation/fragmentation, manipulation and control by powerful interests, and the waste of human and environmental resources, but I also believe in individuals and the collective organism of humanity to adapt and find balance across generations.”

Gary Arlen, Director of Arlen Communications, replied: “The Metaverse will comprise a collection of applications and a convergence of many technologies to create an alternative cyber environment, possibly with variations for entertainment, socializing and business situations.

“Positive points include accessing people and situations that would be difficult or impossible in real life to go to places virtually, for example people, animals or machines.

“The negatives include isolation; reliance on technology that can be controlled by "evil doers," including governments or corporations; Access costs that may be prohibitive for some people.

“The convergence of crypto, Metaverse XR and other technologies will inevitably enable a range of cyber environments that are hard to imagine but likely not what developers are promoting today.

“If our employers, professional service providers, financial sources, government agencies and others set up and/or require us to set up such cyber environments, we will probably all have to agree to some degree. I anticipate significant Metaverse activity in business categories such as healthcare/medical, real estate/construction, education, manufacturing, aerospace and retail.”

Michael R. Meyer, a Hawaii-based chief information officer with experience in new technology development, IT infrastructure and change management, said, “Things are getting uglier, but the Metaverse will take over. It is evolving rapidly and has now reached critical mass. The reaction of people around the world to the invasion of Ukraine is a big indicator of how quickly this is changing.

“While the Ukraine crisis may draw on the tools of the old power, the potential and power of mass action independent of the government is now in people's minds. On a more abstract level, the pandemic has made it clear that jobs are virtual for many professions. Despite the ancient physical leaders' desperate efforts to regain control, they will be an obstacle as humanity moves forward.”

A professor emeritus of communicationswrote: "The incentives that are likely to shape the nature of a metaverse (digital spaces - as currently defined) in 2040 will be intertwined with the economic, social, political, geographic and transportation disruptions of climate change and tectonic shifts, along with its energy needs the participation of multinational companies, scientific and educational institutions. For the elites (roughly half a billion worldwide) fully participating in emerging digital work communities and digitally enhanced social lives, there is likely to be a growing emphasis on living and working "on the ground." The metaverse will spill over into arts, entertainment, sports, virtual travel, and healthcare and exercise for a few billion more.”

The four reasons cited most frequently by these experts expect extended reality and the metaverse to advance significantly by 2040:

  • Profit motives are driving significant investment in the advancement of these tools.
  • Compared to today, many more people will find the Metaverse useful enough to access on a daily basis.
  • The technology to create an immersive metaverse is possible by 2040.
  • The pandemic gave the development of the XR a huge boost.

The next four sections provide insights into these topics.

Profit motives drive significant investment in the advancement of these technologies

Of course, the primary driver of investment in technology development has always been the opportunity for people to benefit from its success. Many of the experts said they are confident that the XR will continue to be developed due to its commercial potential.

Maria Anne Frank, Chair of the Cyber ​​​​​​Civil Rights Initiative, a nationally and internationally recognized expert on the intersection of civil rights and technology, said: “Given that by 2040 many daily activities will take place in the 'metaverse', it is very likely Resources poured into augmented reality technologies by billionaire corporations ruthlessly focused on profit potential.”

R „Ray“ Wang, Founder and Principal Analyst at Constellation Research, said, “We just released a report outlining expectations for monetization of the Metaverse economy. We see many components in the development of the metaverse. Interfaces - Headphones, glasses, human and gesture-based APIs. Worlds – All studios, esports, gaming platforms, digital twins and social networks will create a world as a distributed autonomous organization (or DAO) to define membership rules, governance and voting rights, token economic models, funding mechanisms and the balance between centralization and decentralization.

“Value exchange – blockchain, NFTs, digital assets, Web3 – are all elements of a new decentralized infrastructure and technologies. As with the web, social, and mobile evolutions before it, we will see a shift from immersive 2D to 3D experiences. These technologies will shift from persuasive to consensual and conscious technologies.

“AI-powered environmental experiences offer a level of customization where you can choose your own adventure, where every action is a demand signal that is captured. The goal for many developers is for individuals to be able to traverse worlds with just one identity, but walled gardens will still exist.”

Mei Lin Fung, President of People-Centered Internet, wrote: "The vast majority of people may not go to the metaverse to work and play by 2040, but they will with Facebook risking its entire corporate existence in a big bet on the issue , the Metaverse Gold Rush has begun."

Dimitri Williams, associate professor of technology and society at the University of Southern California, wrote: “The changes that are occurring will be driven in large part by capital, so they will have their pros and cons. These elements are done well but struggle to be particularly organic. Nor will they be unified, and instead will be a series of parallel metaverses run by different intellectual property owners. Some may merge and collaborate, but capital and antitrust being what they are, we should expect the Cokes and Pepsis of the metaverse rather than one grand unified Ready Player One vision.

Barry Chudakov, founder and director of Sertain Research, wrote: “Will the Metaverse become just another gold rush, attracting wealthy investors looking to make more money than they already are? Or is there a way to encourage investment while providing clarity and focusing on an assessment based on real facts while attempting to solve major and pressing global problems facing humanity? After all, in a mirror of the world, like a telescope, we should be able to see positively and do things and issues that we normally overlook or ignore with the naked eye.”

Albert „Skip“ Rizzo, clinical psychologist and director of medical virtual reality at the Institute of Creative Technologies at the University of Southern California, commented: “The perceived benefits of this form of interaction and access to experience will certainly drive development in this area.

“It won't be for everyone and there will be unintended or unforeseen consequences beyond what we can already imagine, but the 'metaverse' will grow because the benefits and commercial potential are on the other side of the equation for some people gaining weight will be significant.

“There will be a huge market for people choosing to access services related to this. The benefits, of course, will be the usual suspects: improved access and more intuitive interaction with education, health, work activities, social interaction, commercial sales and entertainment.”

Director of Technological Innovation and Architecture of one of the largest telecommunications companies in the worldwrote, “There is a significant investment in the Metaverse. It's the only place outside of a theme park where you can fully immerse the customer in a brand. As experience becomes more important, business will focus on opportunities in this area.”

winston mutter, Managing Partner of CloudTree Ventures and author of The Hunt for Unicorns and The Digital War, responded, “I'm writing a new book for 2022 on how blockchain advances will strengthen the foundations of cryptocurrency, privacy, and security in the metaverse . . . There are many competing visions of how we will build this permanent, infinite virtual space with its own economy and identity system.

“Facebook Horizon is an ambitious bet that it will be realized in VR. Epic Games is doubling down on its game-centric approach with Fortnite. But the most exciting part of the metaverse isn't its scale or infrastructure, but rather its potential to reinvent the way we interact with our friends and loved ones. Metaverse is the future of social media.”

Alex Simonelis, a professor of computer science at Dawson College in Montreal, replied: “A complete answer to this question would take as long as a Ph.D. Dissertation. The US is a hotbed (the only one) for visionary tech entrepreneurs like Musk, Page, Brin, Bezos - and Mark Zuckerberg who will make it happen. In short, social media is addictive, and the metaverse gets even more addictive—imagine being able to realistically ski in the Alps or surf in Hawaii or date a Hollywood star or attend a lecture at Stanford or whatever you want , all for the price of a $200 headset and a $10 per month subscription. On the positive side, great experiences come at great prices. Among the negatives: more addicts.”

Gordon Jones, co-founder and CEO of Thrivacy, an expert in blockchain, privacy and self-determined identity, said: “The metaverse consists of many Web3 technologies that are currently being developed for all kinds of applications. So by 2040 we will definitely have the necessary tools to run an affective and immersive metaverse.”

Professor of Sociology and Chair of Afro-American Studiesat a major US university commented: “Change will come because billionaires want it. Facebook/Meta broadcasts this. It will be fun and then become harmful. For example, Facebook was initially a fun way to connect, but some people started using it to promote ethnic cleansing, political misinformation, and as a means of broadcasting live violence.”

Compared to today, many more people will find the Metaverse useful enough to access on a daily basis.

Respondents who expect everyday use of XR to increase significantly by 2040 believe it will be more widely used in many mainstream areas beyond its current gaming and entertainment niches. As with any technology, they say these use cases and the shift of more human activity to more virtual environments will result in both positive and negative social impacts.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (53)Krcmar-Helm, President of Business Informatics at the Technical University of Munich and an expert in digital transformation, replied: “The Metaverse universe will complement physical reality, but not overlay it, but it will be an extremely important element of perception and perceived by people as probable most important influence in their lives. For the people who cannot or will not connect, life will be different as the metaverse will be available to others but not to them, and new disparities will emerge. Wealth from "ownership" via NFTs [non-fungible tokens] is not evenly distributed. Without a political discourse on the integration of metaverse into human life, the result could be a bleak future.”

Susanne Aaronson, Professor of International Affairs and Director of the Digital Trade and Data Governance Hub at George Washington University, replied: “The shift to immersive technologies is already happening. For example, Barbados has an embassy in the metaverse. South Korea is already using XR to provide services. The World Bank uses XR to assess how different loans can transform conditions in water-stressed countries. The hub outlines the governance of these data-driven technologies, and we are planning a conference in June 2022 on how XR is already transforming international affairs. We're seeing conversations about this impacting trade.”

Marta Szekeres, a Hungary-based complex systems researcher, wrote: “I am sure that the switch to immersive activities will be similar to previous shifts. As with email, cell phones, etc., this will happen gradually. First, organizations, institutions, and businesses will apply the Metaverse, and then the general population will slowly get involved. I hope this improves society as a whole. Mankind can use the metaverse to transcend their own limitations. There will be a lot of positives.

  1. People can use their imagination without limits without affecting the real world. This will relieve them of the negative psychological effects (frustration, aggression, depression, etc.) caused by limitations in the real world. People can become more tolerant, friendlier and more willing to compromise.
  2. It can help mankind stop spending most of their time doing compulsory jobs and have more time for creativity and fun activities, leading to a highly technological and socially developed society.
  3. Human use of the metaverse in a way that avoids wear and tear in the real world can also help eliminate pollution and further exploitation of nature and the earth.

"The metaverse could function with few ill effects. In the past, the good guys and the bad guys were pretty much the same, but now we have to be smarter if we don't want to destroy humanity, nature and the earth. If literally everyone could be connected, then human life could become a dream.

“Digitization in the metaverse should free people from digital tasks and lead to a lot of new creativity. Connecting things and people can reduce the need to be physically present everywhere. Excursions can be booked for pleasure and entertainment. This also benefits the health of people and the earth. I hope that a mature metaverse will help people reflect on themselves and the world at large, where everyone and everything is equally important. I hope that people will no longer feel fear, loneliness, anger and sense of responsibility and interdependence. But if the creation of the metaverse focuses only on devices, software, gadgets and networks, and no steps are taken towards universal and unconditional availability to all, it is difficult to see when (if ever) the system will evolve into a fully connected human system can transform . . . 🇧🇷 While a properly designed and operated metaverse could liberate all humans, I am very skeptical that our society would want to liberate its humans.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (54)Thyaga Nandagopal, Senior Advisor to the U.S. Board of Computer and Information Science and Engineering. National Science Foundation shared use case examples across multiple categories:

  1. Learning: With Virtual Reality/immersive experiences enabled by the Metaverse, the ability to learn by doing will be a major benefit in accelerating the uptake of new concepts by a variety of learners. It has the potential to affect how different students absorb and understand new material. Education will also shift to a continuous learning model, where the K-12 system ultimately teaches "how to learn" rather than "what to learn," and the metaverse will provide opportunities for everyone to learn the essential skills that are required for jobs. , personal care, finances, etc.
  2. Work: The nature of work will change fundamentally with the ability to interact with distant objects, data and people via the metaverse. It will shift from “skill-based” to “information-based”. We will be able to work from anywhere, anytime. More jobs will not be 9 to 5, but will fit into a freelancing model in which tasks are divided among those who can perform them within a set performance parameter. Humans are valued for their ability to quickly analyze data from various sources and extract relevant information from the sea of ​​data that surrounds them.
  3. Human Relationships: Immersion can strengthen existing human relationships by being able to stay connected at all times, but the risk of disruption is ever-present. The advent of highly realistic digital avatars can lead people to associate with purely virtual characters for company and pleasure, as these can be programmed to provide them with a greater sense of satisfaction than most human-human interactions. The metaverse can lead to a breakdown in human-to-human relationships.
  4. Government: While it may improve access to government services and information, the Metaverse will initially make things much worse than they are today until government technology is perfected and the public understands how to use it. This could be mitigated over the course of a few decades. The Metaverse will also allow legislators to engage with constituents, but it could also allow them to shirk the responsibility of meeting and engaging with individuals in the communities they represent, and instead use avatars or virtual ones Using agents working on their behalf to placate the public instead of really listening to what people have to say.”

Andre Tutt, legal expert and author of "An FDA for Algorithms", wrote: "How do I envision the metaverse transforming human society? Most importantly, it will continue to make individuals more data-driven in how they interact with each other and the world, and will continue to advance certain types of traditional knowledge.

"For most of human history, unless you were a trained ornithologist or amateur birder, if you saw a red bird in a tree, you couldn't tell if that bird was a cardinal or a scarlet tanager. . The same is true of a variety of human endeavors, from cooking to painting.

“The availability of increasingly accessible data will reduce the need to rely on traditional ways of memorizing and potentially expand people's ability to understand and communicate information about the world around them.

“Increasing the level of virtualization also allows the real world to become smoother and more dynamic (and therefore changes to the world can be made more cost-effectively). A spartan retail space with completely bare walls and a kitchen could—through the use of augmented reality—be a bright and colorful Mexican family restaurant by day and a buzzing nightclub by night.

“The ability to change the commercial image of physical spaces is just scratching the surface of what might be possible. There could be implications for fashion where clothes look different through the lens of augmented reality. And if augmented reality is widespread enough, even road signs and traffic lights could theoretically be replaced with augmented reality, allowing cities to potentially dynamically change traffic flows without having to repaint streets and replace traffic lights and lights. .

"There is hardly a human playing field that isn't changed in some way by the introduction of this blended reality metaverse - but they are changed in ways that may individually seem rather small. In essence, they are all enhanced or altered by the ability to generate real-time data about the world and to create or use digital representations overlaid on the physical world. But the collective impact on efficiency and human happiness is likely to be huge.

“These technologies will greatly increase the speed at which many people can learn many tasks. You will significantly reduce the cost of visiting distant places virtually. They will allow people to engage in new forms of entertainment that are more visceral and exciting than what they have access to now. Overall, I hope this will drastically improve human society in the long run. There will be problems and dangers.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (55)Katie Harbath, Director of Public Policy at Facebook from 2011 to 2021, now Founder and CEO of Anchor Change, and Director of Technology and Democracy at the International Republican Institute, commented, “Like the early days of the internet in the 1990s, it can be difficult to set up imagine exactly what the metaverse will be like in 2040. I hope it will be especially strong for communities and areas where it is difficult to be physically together or to travel to a place.

“Gaming has already dipped into the metaverse, and teenagers playing these games today will be in their 30s by 2040. Rather, they will get used to the fact that by visiting a landmark like the Taj Mahal or the Great Wall of China, they can be fully immersed in China without having to travel there. They will visit museums or attend concerts and be able to experience something like this together without much effort. In many ways, this technology will improve our daily lives.

“We will no longer have the stress and travel expenses. If we cannot arrange a meeting, we have many other options to attend. We can do activities with friends and family even if they are on the other side of the world. Military and rescue workers can train in more realistic environments. Also, people don't have to fly to Singapore for a single meeting. Instead, they can attend from home, reducing the environmental impact of business travel.

“The positive aspects of this transition have the potential to make us a much more global society, allowing us to experience different cultures and people without additional travel expenses. People will have more opportunities to learn and make a difference in the world.

"My hope would be that being able to really put ourselves in someone else's shoes will make us a more empathetic society. Negatively, it could isolate people. This can make them feel lonelier because they don't have as much face-to-face physical interaction. We're just learning the mental impact of isolation during COVID-19 and it's evident that these technologies can sometimes exacerbate that."

Kathee Brewer, Editor-in-Chief of CANN Media Group, wrote: “The Metaverse is another in a long line of developments that originated in science fiction and then became reality. (Think cell phones, the Internet, "smart" homes, space travel, nuclear submarines, etc.) Virtual reality and augmented reality are already making new product demonstrations in areas like medicine safer and more immersive.

“Gamers, of course, have dabbled in some elemental form of the metaverse for years, and real estate agents offering 'virtual' tours of real-world properties (another early stage of the metaverse) have become mandatory.

“In the future, the technology seems ripe for use in educational settings, allowing students to have hands-on experience with places and things they might not otherwise have access to. Virtual vacations could allow people who can't or don't want to travel to see distant countries - maybe even planets. Business meetings can be far more immersive than Zoom allows. People might participate in movies, plays, and TV shows instead of just watching them.

“There are countless ways in which the metaverse can be used in everyday life. As with any technology, the potential for misuse/abuse is enormous. Could literal wars be fought in the metaverse? Could authoritarians and conspiracy theorists use the medium for evil purposes? Probably, and those are the scary things that need to be addressed.”

steal the peace, Professor of Telecommunications Law at Penn State, commented, "I expect gamers, consumers of pornography, and professionals capable of exploring three-dimensional presentations, such as CAD-CAM designers, architects, and geospatial engineers, to be among the early adopters of the metaverse. As with all previous technological developments, society will have to adapt, often without much vision on the part of governments. The Metaverse will represent both the greatness and horror of society.”

James Gannon, a health policy expert with a focus on emerging technologies who advises Novartis and PharmaLedger, replied: “The concept of the metaverse will become an important factor in the lives of people in developed countries over the next two decades. If we look back 20 years ago, in the early 2000s, the internet was still a facet of life, while today it is an integral part of modern society. We will see a similar emergence of the metaverse concept, particularly in relation to socially based interactions, but this will also bring with it the same policy challenges that we have seen in the internet space. It will be a challenge for politicians and legislators to keep up with the technical changes.”

James Hughes, bioethicist, sociologist and executive director of the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, wrote: “By 2040, immersive virtual reality and wearable augmented reality will be commonplace and many people around the world will use them for leisure, work and education. It will have no ill effects by itself, but all the bad aspects of human behavior found in the real will be present in the virtual - capitalism, patriarchy, nationalism, laziness. The metaverse will be isomorphic, similar to the real one. It will need laws and regulations, private property, taxes and law enforcement.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (56)Raul Saxena, CEO of India-based CoBot Systems and a former director of Cisco, said: “The first changes will probably happen for gaming, entertainment and pornography. That alone would represent over half a billion people. You will arrive in a fantasy world that tries to resemble the real world. Let's call it fantasy metaverse.

“The next set of changes will address situations where our natural capabilities are augmented by images and actuators, such as in real-time scan-guided laparoscopic surgery. This requires specialized immersive worlds that humans enter to gain more power in completing their tasks. Healthcare, especially surgery, will benefit from these changes. Let's call it the Super Metaverse.

“Business decision making is a multidimensional, analytics-rich problem that can shift into the metaverse. It will be difficult to consume as it depicts an alien world that plays out in scenarios generated by analysts. Just as global information system layers add complexity to maps, navigating the decision complexity likely requires the generation of unnatural dimensions. Instead of x, y, z and time, we might need a metaverse that navigates through profit, sales, customer satisfaction and time. Let's call it the Alien Metaverse.

"We're hoping that education fits in somewhere and becomes more accessible in the metaverse. It will clash with the shift into the metaverse of fantasy, where formless spirits prefer to live. Teaching them to exercise their abilities in the metaverse might also clash with the economic base of the fantasy metaverse, which favors gullible consumption over critical thinking. As the Super and Alien Metaverses evolve, they may provide gateways to the Fantasy Metaverse through which Dwellers can traverse the Metaverse.

“Changes in the fantasy metaverse will be like unleashing an opium super epidemic. There will be a reaction. Blockchain technology will first attempt to promise immutable memories in metaverse. They probably wouldn't deliver on that promise, as they'll be overwhelmed by the sheer amount of memory and attacks from players who will have strong incentives to extol memories or make them modifiable.

“It will take a while and multiple iterations for the tech-business aspects of immutable memories to catch on. I'm not sure if the balance will be beneficial to the dwellers; it could likely favor the powers that administer coinage or trade in the metaverses.

An American futures strategist and consultantreplied: “Fully immersive digital spaces and digital lives will be more seamless than they are today, with more robust infrastructure and more flexible devices available virtually everywhere. Geographical distances will virtually disappear as people feel immersed in their chosen environment without physical travel. People must make a concerted effort to keep their bodies healthy through physical activity as they use the metaverse more frequently for many transactions and communications in their daily lives. It will be much more difficult for people to 'disconnect' from everyday life."

A geoscientist from Oceaniacommented: “Virtual worlds offer many interesting possibilities for people because we can 'authorize' ourselves in them in a very conscious and experimental way. The flexibility of form and experience within a virtual world can have an incredible impact on development.

"I've spent about 17 intermittent years experimenting as an avatar and exploring virtual spaces and experiences in Second Life, and I've found that it has significantly changed my perception of myself in real life. The whole experience can be summed up as liberating. Virtual worlds dissolve social and geographic boundaries, and in them we can interact and relate with people we would otherwise never meet.

“Otherworldly experiences are also common in virtual worlds; everything depends on the imagination of the creator of a virtual kingdom. It allows you to inhabit someone else's imagination in a very different way than you would experience reading a book, for example. The liberating and exploratory experience of virtual worlds is becoming increasingly important as the impacts of population growth, climate change, environmental degradation and pandemics become more evident to people.

“Our society has gone through many forms of liberation as people have sought more in their lives and a deeper understanding of themselves and their role in society. I see the development of virtual worlds as a natural next step in human liberation.”

A highly respected computer scientist from the upper Midwest of the United Statessaid: "Virtual reality technology is improving significantly, and this will lead to a technology-driven emphasis on greater usage, whether or not these applications are actually beneficial." It's clear that entertainment will be the dominant use for most people: the scale of gambling today has likely increased pornography use significantly, and I anticipate further expansion of virtual presence at live events (sports, theatre, music) and virtual events.

“On the plus side, I see tremendous educational benefits (sending people to study historical periods, researching science, etc.), bridging bridges, or advising others in a crisis situation). On the negative side, I believe there is a real risk of amplifying negative social interactions, including increasing sexism, racism, isolationism, and normalizing (in the virtual world) behaviors that exploit, abuse, or marginalize others.”

Several respondents predicted a proliferation of “digital twins”—that is, digital representations and actors that are extensions of “us.”

Jim Spohrer, board member of the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals and long-time IBM executive, wrote: “When our personal data and episodic experiences become our AI, our 'digital twins' are invited to participate in digital worlds online. The variety of world types will be very large. Humans can choose to have their real digital twin included in some worlds, and they can create alter egos for other worlds. Monetizing real digital twins and alter egos will be the focus of some platforms in the digital world.

“The UN Sustainable Development Goals will be a focus for many people, including tackling disinformation (which can be added as a goal). Poverty will be a thing of the past as 1% of every purchase a person makes is paid into an individual central bank digital currency retirement plan for that person. An important and complex legal issue will be the preservation or disposal of digital twins and alter egos of individuals when that individual physically dies.”

Ray Schroeder, a technology-enhanced learning expert and senior fellow at the University of Illinois-Springfield, said, “By 2040, Metaverse platforms will be as integrated and distributed as the Internet is today. We will see the digital twin phenomenon, where individuals are represented digitally by avatars that, powered by AI, speak and respond with the authority and image of the person.

“It will enable a range of virtual twin applications that tie into all aspects of society, from business to learning and recreation. It is becoming a preferred mode of communication, interaction and engagement.

“The transition to the metaverse will change the human self-image from flesh and blood to our idealized personality. This will create a world where we are our "best" or "worst" selves. This is a major step in the evolution of the human species. We will no longer be subject to the body and mind defined by DNA, but we will also have an electronic version.”

Mei Lin Fung, President of People-Centered Internet, wrote: "Concepts such as the way 'digital twins' can connect the real world and the digital world will eventually be greatly advanced by articles of association, ownership agreements, access controls, permissions and other tools and institutions." are developed during the Metaverse Gold Rush.

"I think by 2040 most activity will be limited to what is already popular, with some advances in other specific areas such as online health, education, business, employment, investing and saving, conferences and social gatherings."

Vipp Jaswal, CEO of Interpersonal Intelligence Advisory and C-Suite Advisor, commented, "If history is any guide, it makes sense that the exponential change we've seen in the existing digital world we live in is also happening for the virtual world will apply that currently exists built. : the metaverse. The Metaverse will be three-dimensional, meaning users will feel fully immersed and will eventually be able to engage with sensory functions like touch, touch, and smell.

“Human society will change in a way that allows users to exist in two or more worlds that allow for expression of their true selves. As an analogy, the metaverse will almost be an opportunity for humans to "reincarnate" themselves and give themselves permission to be their true selves.

“One of the positive outcomes will allow people to pursue multiple careers in different environments. This allows for greater interaction and community building. The opportunity to engage in a much broader range of experiences will be much greater.

“There are some concerns: Currently there is little talk about monitoring the cybersecurity of individuals. Code of Conduct provisions are only suspended to a very limited extent. Some level of interpersonal intelligence needs to be developed and shared—a new metaversa literacy—in order for people to have a safe and rewarding experience. Otherwise, this could be the Dark Web turned on its head.

“Everyday life is being impacted in every way, but our experiences of developing the Internet have taught us to anticipate, embrace and embrace technological change. We will adapt to this new world very comfortably, and its constant evolution will drastically change the way we live. From shopping to entertainment, health, work, relationships and more, the way we live our lives will change exponentially.”

Respondents to this survey took several additional approaches to envision how and where XR might be used in work, business, relationships, national defense, education, and acts of crime in the future.

Stephen Abraham, director of Lighthouse Consulting Inc., predicted, “Many metaverse infrastructures are already in place and are being developed. I don't think there will be a single metauniverse. The primary metaverses are goal specific and you choose them based on your goals. We will belong to many planets in the metaverse and not be limited to our home planet.

“For example, there will be metaverses specializing in learning goals, workplace workflow and decision-making goals, as well as gaming, entertainment and culture goals. We can see this pretty clearly at the moment with the diversity of social media/networks/content platforms, where adding too much disparate content destroys the experience – for example, if LinkedIn would look the other way (in terms of user needs) and offer entertainment-oriented content like music on. That's not to say that a variety of formats aren't necessary for every Metaverse experience, but they must be fit for purpose.”

Patrick Hsieh, a digital sociologist working in the Digital Technology and Society program at RTI International, said: “Many service sector jobs are being automated and augmented in immersive digital spaces that blend the virtual and physical worlds. Portable devices will no longer be bulky. New jobs will be created, such as logisticians supporting and maintaining automated services.”

A vice president for economic research and developmentcommented: “AI will largely control all functions as we know them today. Communication and other interactions, such as B. Business transactions will likely be virtual and via avatars, AR and VR. We will respond to targeted requests and actions, banking will no longer be face-to-face, and it is likely that all educational institutions will adopt virtual online training as standard. Keeping processes and policies in line with technological advances will be a major challenge.”

An expert on internet technology and politicssaid: “Enhanced transparent displays have obvious use cases in machinery, vehicles, war and entertainment. It is difficult to imagine a scenario where advances in one area do not feed advances in others, creating network effects that lead people to increasingly rely on this mediation to connect with each other and the world at large to interact ."

Vincent Alcazar, a retired US military strategist with a background in global intelligence, commented, “The Metaverse is being commercially instantiated to serve the interests of gambling. But the most interesting use case is not in this area, but in national defense. By 2040, one or more non-public U.S. military research and development and operations metaverses in technology, metasystems in size, and organization will be paired with real-world U.S. combat operations to test scenario-specific and mission-specific measures, countermeasures, tactics, and counter-tactics . This will accelerate decisions on what technologies and validated tactics the US military can bring to the future battlefield to innovate and outperform adversaries.”

Steve Miller, Emeritus Professor of Information Systems at Singapore Management University, commented: “There will be positive and negative uses. A forthcoming book co-authored with Tom Davenport, Working with AI: Real Stories of Human-Machine Collaboration, includes a case study describing an auto repair shop that is already using XR to train new mechanics using Microsoft HoloLens and a commercial software to train application. This is beginning to happen now. It can and will happen more often.

“XR will play an increasing role in supporting knowledge. Deepfake video footage will be extremely difficult to identify for normal people and common detection methods. Another book, AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future by Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan describes this and much more. The second story in this book, "Gods Behind the Masks," is a wonderful help in imagining everyday life 20 years from now, when the ability to synthesize images will be so good that fakes will permeate aspects of everyday life in new ways - but of course there will also be new and better detection methods.”

I Ruth, a Baltimore psychologist who specializes in cognitive-behavioral therapy, said, “The shift to the metaverse will be similar to our shift to the internet in the 1990s. People will react in one of four ways:

  1. first users
  2. Slow Adopter
  3. detached people
  4. resistant people

“Early adopters will embrace the Metaverse. They will rush to exploit all your resources. Your involvement in the metaverse will be very high.

“Slow adopters will be less enthusiastic about the Metaverse. They will use it for their work when needed. They won't use the metaverse much in their spare time.

"People who aren't tied to the metaverse won't be paying attention. It won't even be on their radar. It's like your grandfather refusing to buy a cell phone. They have no ability or interest in using the Metaverse.

“There will also be people who oppose the metaverse. Every new technology has its skeptics. These people will be afraid of how the metaverse will change society. They will be a small but noisy group.

“The success of the metaverse will largely depend on how many early adopters it can attract and how many slow adopters it can interest. Tech companies will try to encourage disengaged people to care about the metaverse by showing them the metaverse as a place that empowers them and that they can trust.

“Strengths that will emerge from the Metaverse include the ability to connect with people around the world, the ability to work from anywhere, and the growth of a new segment of the economy. As the metaverse grows in popularity, companies will be under immense pressure to innovate. Users can benefit from this.

“However, these benefits are not shared equally. Those unable to access the Metaverse may be left behind. The people making the metaverse will use our psychology to make it an attractive place. In this way, we will surely see an increase in Metaverse addiction. The extent to which the metaverse will channel our negative impulses is unknown. The 2010s and 20s showed how social media can harness our dark impulses. political polarization; fake news; everything seems to have gotten worse. How will the Metaverse affect this dynamic? This is everyone's guess.

Andre Schwartzmann, Senior Advisor at the Benton Institute for Broadband & Society, commented, "It's dangerous to extrapolate from historical patterns for something like this, but as with the internet, I suspect some valuable use cases will emerge, perhaps not the current ones likely to be the likely scenarios . Think zoom to the power of twelve. I think that disproportionate attention is being paid to individual users, but the most important applications are being developed in the enterprise space for design, logistics and collaboration. Education may come next. But I am skeptical that this technology will radically change society.”

Technology to create an immersive metaverse is possible by 2040

Several experts who participated in this survey stated that they expect that by 2040 software, hardware, user interfaces and networking capabilities will have advanced enough to create a much more sophisticated, immersive and better-functioning user experience.

Rod Beckstrom, author, technology entrepreneur, former CEO of ICANN and founding director of the US National Center on Cybersecurity, said: “Some forms of new metaverse will certainly emerge by 2040. Why? Because today's advancing hardware and software technology will allow this without any problems. It will evolve to give people what they are looking for and are willing to pay for, whether through advertising, licensing fees, or payments for products and services that include their features. As this is an embryonic market for new technologies, nobody knows exactly how it will develop today, but it will happen and – just like AI – will find applications in a wide variety of fields. If you want to understand where you are today and where you are headed, follow the eyeballs and follow the money.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (57)Peter H. Hellmonds, founder/owner of Arete Publica, a public affairs consultancy, replied: “The increase in computing bandwidth and power, as well as the future development of suitable devices that are not as cumbersome as today's virtual reality glasses, will mark a historic shift in of the way we access these worlds within a few short years. Google Glass was a start.

“Apple and Samsung can create the next best thing in terms of stylish and sleek AR/VR glasses along with a great sensorimotor experience. It will likely start with big hype in South Korea and Japan before spilling over to the US and Europe. The porn industry will figure out how to make the most of it.

“Our generation saw the advent of the Internet, beginning with dial-up modems, quickly evolving into DSL, VDSL, and now Gigabit connections over fiber optic cables. We've seen a race in computing power from 8-bit computers with 128 kilobits of RAM to the possibility of 433-qubit quantum computing power by 2022 on next-generation machines. We've seen the rise of social interaction from Usenet newsgroups and internet relay chat to date with WhatsApp and Signal, Telegram and a host of other chat apps. We've seen the rise of social networks like Facebook and Twitter, Instagram and TikTok, all in a span of 10 to 20 years.

“We have as much time ahead of us as we have in 2040. Never underestimate the power of inventors and users around the world. I can even imagine that the world William Gibson described in his Neuromancer trilogy in the early 1980s, where he coined the word "cyberspace," is equipped with neural implants that connect your brain directly to a computer deck , which enables three-dimensional interaction a The VR world could emerge before 2040.

“Blockchain is still in its infancy today, but the possible positive influences on our lives are manifold. From verifying financial transactions to documenting the shipment of goods to certifying the origin of diamonds or other minerals used in international trade, I can imagine everyday blockchain usage will soon surpass usage as a medium for cryptocurrencies. "

A global strategist working for Meta to advance technology for the greater goodwrote: "Many of the technologies used to create the metaverse are already available. We should expect rapid development of Metaverse hardware/portables and tools over the next five to ten years. By 2040, the Metaverse should be a very popular and well-used technology, used by millions of users.”

Long-time Global Head of Internet Policy at one of the largest telcos in the worldsaid: “Technologies such as distributed computing and high-speed mobile broadband will enable trends that have been underway for years. The Metaverse will feature a wide range of uses, from entertainment to online education to business-related environments, which will drive development.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (58)Brad Templeton, President Emeritus of the Electronic Frontier Foundation and Director of the Foresight Institute, said: “What we will see in 2040 depends on technological advances that have yet to be developed. To become ubiquitous, you need to be able to access it without effort or too much thought.

“It needs to be available at all times, maybe in the glasses you wear all the time (not just for application) or on a desk you sit at all day, or maybe handy when you're in the living room or in the kitchen. Given this development, yes, people will use it regularly because it's easy. It's 18 years to 2040, so it looks like it might be possible before then.

"If we're going to get something radical, like a contact lens, a hearing aid, or some other invisible accessory, wait longer. Entertainment will most easily move to this platform along with certain business apps.

"I'm more skeptical of a vision of 'Snow Crash' where people feel like they're 'living' in a metaverse rather than accessing it when needed or explicitly 'visiting' it like we're doing now."

Marjory S. Blumenthal, Senior Fellow and Director of the Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, responded, “The Internet is evolving, as is the collection of technologies we call the 'Internet.' , compete and merge as the (loosely) new generation of the internet by 2040. The only way it can work "immersively" is if the technologies are easy to use and immersive.

“I caution against assuming this means 3D graphics and gaming – these technologies will be important in some, but not all, implementations of the metaverse. After all, 3D and flashy graphics don't do much for the visually impaired, and last but not least, an aging world population will result in more of us becoming to some extent visually and hearing impaired.

“The observation that the virtual worlds of the past have become atrophied or marginalized speaks to the need to engage more people in a more sustainable way. A single platform is unlikely to be able to do this, and like the idea of ​​a network of networks, a metaverse of metaverses promises to be more adaptable.”

Andre Tutt, a legal expert and author of "An FDA for Algorithms," wrote: "The kind of real-time rendering technology that's needed to create a really exciting metaverse, especially on wearable and wearable devices, is maybe 15 years or so longer than development requires GPUs (and this timeline assumes Moore's Law still applies).”

Stephen Downes, an expert at the National Research Council of Canada's Center for Digital Technologies Research, said: "William Gibson-inspired whole-body immersion is still a long way off and would require a direct neural connection, which will still be in development by 2040. We'll be limited to what we can do with headphones, glasses, pop-up displays, and the like, but the devices will be lighter, cheaper, and much more accessible. The bandwidth allows for the much higher data transfer required to support realistic VR.

“By 2040, one of the biggest challenges will be over: producing enough content (from games to VR, films, educational simulations and live events). We'll be able to shoot VR instead of being forced to use a design platform. By 2040 we should be seeing the virtual reality equivalent of YouTube and TikTok.

“Critics will complain that people withdraw from society because they hide from the rest of the room behind their virtual reality goggles. There will be concerns about harmful and disturbing content, and due to the authenticity of VR experiences, there will be concerns about misinformation, propaganda, and brainwashing.

“The cost of accessing and using VR devices will also raise questions about widening the digital divide. Many people will argue, not without justification, that VR (or even augmented or extended reality) simply isn't necessary for most social functions.

“Another less discussed aspect of the metaverse is the idea of ​​object persistence and identity in virtual space. We are already seeing the first signs of this with blockchain ledgers and NFTs.”

Alexandre B. Howard, director of the Digital Democracy Project, wrote: "By 2040, we should expect the personal and public Metaverse terminals that Neal Stephenson once envisioned in his 1992 cyberpunk novel to exist in many forms around the world, from public kiosks to university pods to connections in homes, library cubicles, commercial devices operated by corporations, police and military interfaces. If the world is like it is today, everyone will have their own opportunities, stigmas, power, and privileges, which will be reflected in skills and looks.

“We should also expect that two decades from now, our current smart glasses, virtual reality goggles, and augmented reality browsers on smartphones will be viewed as as antiquated as we now see 1980s personal computers and 1990s cellphones.

“The emerging range of computing devices that can augment what we see and allow us to explore virtual worlds with avatars by projecting images onto lenses or eyeballs is still in its infancy today, as are digital smartwatches, health bracelets and fitness tracker.

“By 2040, we should expect spoken and gestural interfaces like the ones we saw in Minority Report, allowing us to interact in layers of augmented reality in a specific physical location and view the notes and glyphs left by others , with background systems gathering information about the people, places and objects we observe.

“It will have many implications for how we live, work, play, govern, conduct business, pursue romance and more as these new civic, business and personal spaces are commercialized or co-opted by the same forces and social institutions that shaped them Development and Spread of Internet Technologies in the 20th Century”.

June Anne Englisch-Lück, Professor of Anthropology at San Jose State University and Distinguished Fellow of the Institute for the Future, said: "By 2030, if there is greater consistency between different proprietary systems of coding and interface design, and if more universal standards are adopted, the use of VR for social interaction and AR through to education, training, community activism and art will increase. Undoubtedly, the metaverse will have exactly the same social cost as the Internet. Immersion will make engagement much more attractive.”

Robert Petrosino, Head of Emerging Technology and Innovation at PeakActivity, a digital strategy and implementation company, replied: “By 2040, the metaverse will play a crucial role in everyday life. There will have been a transition from a mobile-first experience to a headset-first experience. These headsets allow people to quickly and easily switch between augmented and virtual reality and update us on our current geolocation specific to events, interactions and digital content.

“As we have seen in previous generations of technological development, the winners will be those with the deepest pockets who are the quickest to integrate this technology into their daily lives. Our worlds will merge from a divide between digital and physical into a single metaverse that blends some of the best and worst of both into a display-driven experience that can range from contact lenses to eye implants.”

An Andre Czer, former vice president of technology at a major company, commented: “By 2022 it is clear that 5G technologies will appear first in mobile applications, in phones and in cars. In particular, all automakers are starting to use LIDAR and other technologies to make vehicles more driver-independent.

“A killer app for the home — where people are relatively quiet — remains to be seen. However, analysts predict that 5G will break the internet monopoly dominated by Comcast, CenturyLink and a few other companies.

“We are already seeing better connectivity for rural and third world populations, who can use cellular technology to better communicate and participate in global markets. Kasongo, a city in eastern Congo, has cellular access without having to lay thousands of miles of cable.”

Walt Howe, a veteran information technology and services professional who is now retired, said: “Continuous improvements in miniaturization and AI will result in an augmented and more technologically positive experience. There will be no more heavy headphones and it will be more sustainable. People will appear as themselves in most communications, not as anonymous players. XR will integrate with normal, enhance and modify it.”

A communications specialist based in British Columbiareplied, “The Metaverse becomes a place to escape from the realities of the world. It might not be what it is now, with clunky VR gear. Instead, it can be more integrated into everyday functions, objects, and clothing, allowing people to move seamlessly from the physical to the virtual world.”

The pandemic gave the development of the XR a huge boost

The pandemic of the early 2020s was cited by many experts in this survey as spurring billions of dollars in new investment in research and development of connected digital tools that enable amazing augmented and virtual reality experiences.

Gary L. Kreps, Professor of Communications and Director of the Center for Health and Risk Communications at George Mason University, said: "Much of the recent development has been fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has required the delivery of health and education services digitally to the public . .

“Necessity is the mother of invention, and health and education programs have been refined through use. Similarly, consumers and providers of healthcare and education services have become increasingly sophisticated in using these new technologies.

"Now that so many people have become accustomed to using these new digital communication systems, I see an increasing demand for the introduction of additional, more sophisticated systems of this type."

Brooke Foucault Welles, Associate Professor of Communications and Senior Fellow at Northeastern University's Network Science Institute, said: "With the added boost of widespread remote working and learning during the COVID-19 pandemic, it seems inevitable that companies will invest in the development of Invest in hardware and software. to support the Metaverse(s) for the next 15-20 years.”

Mei Lin Fung, President of People-Centered Internet, wrote: “COVID-19 has accelerated the level of new digital transformation in many cities and nations by many decades. We're building infrastructure that didn't have a chance of getting funding five years ago. Because of this, devices and software originally designed for the Metaverse will appear more quickly. They are also being repurposed as a means of augmenting human activity in the real world — allowing people who are separated in time and space to engage in activities that were only possible face-to-face 20 years ago.”

Olivier Crepin-Leblond, founding member of the European Dialogue on Internet Governance and board member of the European At-Large Organization at ICANN, wrote: “Many activities will take place online by 2040, using more immersive interfaces than the current web, for example e-options commerce, where you feel walk through a store aisle, full virtual reality meetings and fully immersive VR or holographic fitness options. The technology already exists today, it just needs to be refined, bug-free, easy to use and affordable.

"Many of the positive aspects of this will be similar to those we have experienced during the COVID-19 epidemic: less need to travel, more efficient use of the Earth's resources, etc.

"Many of the negatives will also be what we are seeing during COVID-19, including an increase in psychological distress associated with social isolation and a lack of real physical human contact. Will the technology of 2040 find a way to solve this problem, somehow trick our human minds into believing that we are in someone else's presence? Unless we continue to evolve physically and physiologically as a species, virtual presence may never fully replace physics.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (59)Read The Demon, Professor of Entrepreneurship at the University of Nairobi Business School, commented: “In my opinion, it won't be long before the future of the metaverse becomes part of our lives. The reset began in 2020 with the outbreak of COVID-19. We had to transition to offering services like education as normally as possible and doing everything online.

“The Metaverse and Web3 will make it even easier to mimic natural space. Many graduate students are already wondering why we should resume “normal” physical classes when distance learning works in today’s 2D. With blockchain technology promising transaction security due to its principles of cryptography, decentralization, and consensus, it is not far-fetched that top universities start offering distance learning that approximates real-world classes.

"If the addiction we see in gaming is anything, then the metaverse will rule the future. There are many positive aspects, such as B. Improving productivity in virtually every sector, from education to healthcare to agriculture, leading to greater inclusion and prosperity. However, this is at the expense of the socialization necessary for our livelihood.”

Moira von Roche Holmes, President of the International Federation for Information Processing, wrote: “The immersive aspects will help people become more familiar with the technology. We will truly live digitally. The big positive will be for education. The big bright spot will be improvements in creating more personal experiences in education. During the pandemic over the past two years, high school and university students have been forced into an online environment where the missing component has been social learning. Immersive learning spaces will address this problem.”

Valerie Bock, Director of VCB Consulting, wrote: “One thing the pandemic has taught us is how much can be achieved with technologies that enable virtual presence. But another is how much we prefer real presence with each other and how much easier we learn when the full range of sensory perception is available to us. So I see the metaverse in the same way as the internet - it will become an indispensable part of everyday life, but for most people it will only be a part of it.

“It might be where we do some of our business if we spend a lot of free time or work there. Some people will be professionally involved in administration and will spend most of their time there. Until headphones become much more convenient and less demanding, there will be resistance to having to “go into” them to perform everyday tasks.

“It's easy and convenient to pay for a transaction with a mobile phone – I don't see people having to put on a headset to make transactions, but when the transaction is 'in play' that resistance goes away. We're yet to see a lot of resistance to wearing headphones or accessing augmented reality à la Google Glass due to the risk of people being monitored and recorded.

"Expect to develop norms about the times and places when such devices are 'appropriate' as we have learned a lot about how the cellphone can disrupt interpersonal communication when people are actually together."

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (60)Jose Riva, director of the Human Technology Laboratory at the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Milan, Italy, has been studying the use of virtual reality in mental health for 20 years. He replied: "One of the main problems with the use of technology and social media today is that it undermines our sense of community because, as I explain in 'Surviving COVID-19: The Neuroscience of Smart Working and Distance Learning', they don't enable it the various synchronization mechanisms that reduce the distance between people communicating online.

“Research shows that individuals experiencing distance learning and working experience more fatigue, anxiety, worry and discomfort during COVID-19 restrictions. These types of experiences lead to a significant weakening of physical communities - they lead to increased loneliness and individualism.

"There is hope that the future metaverse, bridging the digital and physical domains using VR and AR, will indeed create hybrid communities where we neurologically feel the same synchronization mechanisms that we feel in real physical places, without the limitations the online rooms today have .

“In a way, we will no longer experience the separation of the physical and digital worlds, we will feel like we are working and learning in a hybrid environment with few or no boundaries. Of course, this will also change what we consider “real” to be, as everything digital will be just as real in our minds as physical. There will be significant shifts in how we view reality.”

Stephan Adelson, president of internet and public health specialist Adelson Consulting Services, predicted: “Commercial interests and the money they bring in will help push the technology forward. Those that provide a virtual work environment for remote workers will prove profitable in many ways. Games will help drive physical technology, and as media becomes more consumable through VR, new ways to interact with movies and other forms of entertainment will emerge.

“I'm already seeing how my time in VR is changing my relationships. I've been exposed to people I would probably never meet in the physical world, and I've made "friends" with many of whom I know very little, always at their request. In many ways, the connections to these virtual friends are more random, and the connections are more transient and situational (through play, social environment, etc.).

“The Horizons by Facebook virtual world is a great example of a company trying to bring an existing model into the VR world. On Horizons, people can create their own world and share it with others - in many ways this movement and structure is reminiscent of MySpace when it first appeared on the scene. Each person could program their own page to make it personal and an expression of themselves. In a way, Horizons is like Facebook meeting MySpace in the Metaverse.

“Some of the changes I'm excited about are in how progressive companies do day-to-day operations. VR meetings could easily replace Zoom and Skype, make meetings more personal (e.g. high-five) and give the employee a "place" to meet and talk at the water dispenser - something the current home is sorely lacking has based work environment and something that proves to be psychologically conducive.

“People will start sharing positive relationships in VR and, similar to online dating, the use of VR for socializing will increase due to positive word of mouth. I think this is especially true as the isolation caused by COVID-19 has changed our social nature.”

On the other hand,Melissa R. Michelson, dean of arts and sciences and professor of political science at Menlo College, cited the pandemic as two impediments to XR's rapid development, writing, "I doubt the metaverse will be that far advanced in 2040 because: 1) the Pandemic has revealed the extent to which modern life depends on chips, electronic parts and chemicals that are not always readily available. Generating a generalized metaverse requires large amounts of these elements and a smoother supply chain. 2) The isolation imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of face-to-face interaction in many areas of daily life. A few industrialized and wealthy enclaves may have a strong presence in the metaverse by 2040, but I don't think they'll be half a billion people. It will take longer, maybe another generation.”

Steve Jones, professor of communications at the University of Illinois-Chicago and editor of New Media & Society, wrote: "We have learned from the experiences of the pandemic in many parts of the world that interaction other than face-to-face is not the case is than satisfactory.”

An expert in the evolution of algorithmsreplied: “The metaverse as currently articulated by Facebook/Meta is probably not the point of all immersive activities/alternative worlds as presented. However, given the multiple pressures of climate change, the pandemic and the advent of flexible working hours, etc., as well as technological advances, some kind of metaverse seems very likely.

“While virtual worlds and a variety of immersive options have existed before, they have been less obvious or urgent in part due to the lack of contextual constraints we see now, as well as some digital/tech literacy challenges that complicate or reduce engagement complicated. visible or attractive.

"Circumstances have changed and it seems very likely that this, along with changes in user technological proficiency, new tools, etc., will result in a metaverse type of environment becoming more desirable, such as the move to the World Wide Web has enabled the acceptance of public use of the Internet as everyday technology. This shift will bring many of the same challenges, rhetoric, etc. that we have seen with the widespread adoption of other digital technologies.”

A computational social scientistUS-based noted, “Again and again we thought that the next internet technology would be the one that would finally connect people over distance. While each technology has helped a little, overall physical distance is still a big factor in who we spend our time with.”

Psychologieprofessor in Cambridge, UK,commented: “The pandemic has shown us the importance of our experience and existence as biological entities. The metaverse can only be attractive if the real world becomes physically, economically, and politically uninhabitable. Some large corporations seem to aspire to this because of their current practices, aided by politically malicious or naïve people, but I suspect they will fail. Unfortunately, their failure will come at a heavy cost to humanity and the planet, but they will fail.”

Daniel S. Schiff, Ph.D. Georgia Tech's nominee responded, "While some envision widespread adoption of VR/AR for regular business and organizational collaboration purposes, it is less clear that this important segment will drive adoption of the metaverse. Given the pandemic's experience of frustration and digital burnout associated with using merely two-dimensional video conferencing platforms like Zoom, individuals may be even less receptive to more immersive and potentially intrusive VR-based contacts as a means of workplace collaboration. . The same set of factors can limit the acceptance of regular primary, secondary, and post-secondary educational uses that would otherwise encourage widespread adoption and acculturation in VR.”

Almost half of the experts surveyed said that much more immersive virtual environments will not have a significantly larger impact on people's daily lives by 2040. Some said that the buzz around Extended Reality (XR) is mostly what you call "typical tech hype". Some of them said they expect that this suite of technologies will likely cause some anticipated but rather minor ripples in the overall technology development stream.

Many expect there will be significant updates in gaming, entertainment, and business/educational communications by 2040, and a notable fraction agree that XR will steadily advance as interactive technologies continue to mature. Many noted that while some very immersive augmented and/or virtual spaces already exist, these spaces have not captured a large percentage of the public's time and attention. This is evidence, they say, that fuller immersion will remain uncommon.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (61)Markus Nottingham, Fastly Senior Principal Engineer and longtime leader of the Internet Engineering Task Force with experience in internet and web standards, commented: "The 'Metaverse' is a marketing confection with no basis in reality. Its proponents focus on capturing a future market, not building a new common space without a single owner.

“There is currently no effort towards interoperability, common standards, open governance or any other indication that what is being marketed is being created - a connection of the web as a public, open space. As a result, the little that does emerge lacks novelty; we've seen this before (e.g. Second Life). I

“If it matters in future online life, from what we see today, the metaverse will likely be more or less Facebook 3D — a platform that a big tech company is using to monetize attention in a market where the winner takes all."

SteveWilson, founder of Lockstep Consulting and vice president and principal analyst at Constellation Research specializing in digital identity and privacy, said, “The Metaverse is largely hype. It's not well defined for us to make predictions that a "fully immersive" experience will be more important by 2040. In fact, I agree that the metaverse, like advanced virtual reality, should matter.

“It's not something that should be designed or accelerated by commercial interests, but it may need to be further developed ecologically. I've been involved with digital identity since the early days of e-commerce (1995) and have seen the field evolve in strange ways. The reasons are varied, but some themes are clear and important to the Metaverse:

  • Most people underestimate what it takes to transition life from analogue to digital.
  • Digital guesses/assumptions tend to be flawed.
  • A lot of work is based on false intuitions about what things like identity really are at the core.
  • One-sided technology-oriented analysis avoids decades of social science, humanities, political science, etc.
  • There is an exaggeration of the digital, an embodiment of really mundane digital things like identities.
  • There is oversimplification or total disregard for risk because digital looks cool and anti-establishment.

“If we still haven't solved digital identity (now, after 25 years), it will be much harder for us to solve 'digital life' and it will take much longer. In short, every Facebook Metaverse will die for the same dual reasons as Facebook's Libra cryptocurrency.

“First of all, quite obvious and almost trivial - the commercial interest of the platform operator is blatantly clear. Second, and more subtle, blockchain technologies and decentralization are a waste of time given the existing governance [of these platforms].

"Better to have transparent human governance to keep network administrators in check than to rely on a new, opaque, unstable, misunderstood and inexplicable technology that promises to do things in the human realm that have never been done before." a technology has done.”

A world-renowned internet sociologist and best-selling authorwrote, "The 'Metaverse' is a bad idea being pushed by the industry, so of course it will have presence, but it won't be adopted. It's a less intuitive and less useful form of connection. There will be less trust and more abuse.”

A technology developer and administratorproclaimed, "The 'Metaverse' is straight forward dystopian cyberpunk nonsense. If I'm wrong about not being a thing, it's to our collective detriment as a species."

Dave Karpf, associate professor of media and public affairs at George Washington University, observed, "I expect by 2040 we'll have some very sleek head-mounted VR and AR monitors, but we're not going to have anything quite like that." will live up to the great ambitions of The “Metaverse. AR" will look more like today's wearable technology - good computing products whose market reach and societal impact are far smaller than their proponents and pundits originally anticipated.

“The Metaverse isn't a new idea — the term was coined by Neal Stephenson in his 1992 novel and draws heavily on the future envisioned by virtual reality pioneers in the 1980s. There will be a World Wide Web.

“The two things that set the Metaverse Push 2022 apart from previous iterations of the concept are 1) it's now expanded to include augmented reality and extended reality, and 2) the hardware and software offerings have gotten much better. It is now possible to play fun VR games, chat in VR chat apps and even join VR meetings under certain circumstances.

“If the previous VR/Metaverse outage was primarily a supply-side issue, then we should expect the turnaround to be imminent. But if it's a demand-side issue -- if people don't particularly want their virtual games and meetings to be more physically embedded -- then, once again, the technology won't find a mainstream foothold.

"I think it's remarkable that people are promising that this technology will change everything in the years to come since 2014 when Facebook acquired Oculus. We've had tech evangelists for eight years insisting the turning point is near. At some point we have to start judging them by their performance and not their potential.

“Even after the year of global pandemic lockdown, virtual reality gaming is a niche activity. Some VR titles are thriving now, but they're far from the most popular or profitable games in the world. If games are going to be the killer app of the metaverse, then we have to ask why they aren't killing it yet."

Fred Baker, Internet pioneer, longtime leader of the Internet Engineering Task Force and Cisco Systems Fellow, commented, “The 'Metaverse' is a marketing program for the company formerly called Facebook. Like most marketing programs, it will have an impact, but it will not take over the world.”

An expert in the sociology of information technologyreplied: “None of these things on the internet change human psychology. The metaverse is just a marketing term for things that we already have, and we've already seen how those things turned out, namely: Second Life, Massively Multiplayer Online Games (MMOs) like World of Warcraft, and MUDS (Multi-User Domains ) , to name just a few.

"It's going to be mostly like Second Life, which was populated by a bunch of freaks, sexists, racists, fanatics and furries. Wired Magazine was full of stunning articles every time a giant company decided to settle in Second Life, but hardly anyone reported on it when all these companies quietly left the platform as it was really quite problematic.

"So yeah, it's just a flashy marketing term that's making a comeback, catching the attention of young tech journalists and their audiences who have no idea the metaverse is an old idea about 'new' worlds created simply by the people." be taken over terribly like those who have already taken over the tone of interactions on Facebook and Twitter.”

Johnny Nhan, a law, cybercrime, and policing expert and associate dean of graduate studies at Texas Christian University, wrote, “Right now, there is no perceived value in the metaverse. In 15 to 30 years people's attitudes might change, but in this case the social is driving the technology and not the other way around.

“Socially, we have seen and documented the negative side effects of non-meta social media, and there has been a backlash against information sharing, particularly with intrusive immersive technologies. They're not as embraced as they used to be and devices like VR remain niche.

“We've tried Google Glass and augmented reality before, and the resulting social backlash has hampered its success. Until we can get past the social factor, the metaverse will remain something that's continually introduced as something new and exciting, but ultimately a gimmick. Factors that contribute to this are data protection, security, convenience, price and above all social acceptance. The last part is a difficult hurdle that could take decades.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (62)Alexandre Cho, digital media anthropologist and human-centered design researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara, replied: “There will be no dual reality in a digital realm that mimics the 'real' – that's white male science fiction fantasy -Authors we reserve purchase. Instead, what we will continue to see is the growing intertwining of physical and digital socializing, particularly the types and formats of socializing that are easy to monetize (unlucky affection, extremist content, algorithm-powered driving experiences), with even more immersive experiences. To sue.

“The real conversation should be less about a bright digital future and more about the shocking gap between government regulators and today's social technologies. The Federal Communications Commission should establish an algorithmic review board, and social internet companies should be required to collect documents for government review if they wish to change their algorithm in a way that could have disparate or catastrophic effects, similar to revisions like in the case of voting rights, the law or the environmental impact report for new buildings. This is what we should be talking about, rather than engaging in "metaverse" fantasies.

"This current iteration of thinking around the so-called 'metaverse' and its imagined future is flawed for two main reasons:

  1. It's a well-executed and shameful PR ploy by Facebook to divert attention and divert talk from what we really should be talking about, the utter and galling disregard for fundamental democratic values, fundamental human dignity, and fundamental ethical practices that the Facebook papers have uncovered . — only to be buried by Facebook's rebranding announcement. I cannot stress enough the success of this PR program. Facebook was in trouble - one executive even capitulated to the idea of ​​the government being able to regulate its algorithm in an interview with the UK press. And where are we now with that? Totally gone. We don't need to talk about the "metaverse" anymore, it participates in the meta-branding exercise itself.
  2. It is completely ahistorical and unaffected/uninformed by the decades of research we already have on the internet and social media. It's ahistorical in the sense that we've had many such attempts and philosophies before it, from the disembodied rhetoric of early internet thinkers and text-based chat rooms (and all their racial and gender baggage) to the fascination of Second Life. We have to ask, "Who has the privilege of not caring about the characteristics of their physical body?" And in that sense, it's easy because it sustains the idea that there's even a binary in that way.

The director of a center researching the future of knowledge infrastructurereplied: “AI is in another hype cycle. It's unlikely that people are that interested in virtual reality. Reality is hard enough for most people. Climate change, cyberwar and real warfare are much bigger concerns. AR, VR, etc. will likely go the way of those simulation worlds where universities bought islands a decade ago. After two years of the pandemic, we're all fed up with Zoom. A walk in the forest or even through the city streets is much more attractive.”

Bernie Hogan, Senior Fellow at the Oxford Internet Institute, commented: “Is the metaverse a representation of space or a reconfiguration of conviviality? There is no doubt that social life will be reconfigured as ML/AI-based predictive technologies will continue to shape our experiences and constrain our choices. However, presenting this data as being in a 3D environment or as requiring sensory immersion is as artificial today as it was when social media conquered virtual environments a decade and a half ago.

"What's more likely than trying to be skeuomorph again or designing a fantasy land is that conversational bots will become smarter, drones will become more autonomous, and our flesh room in general will become more outdated than simulated." Ultimately, the mind's eye is the most powerful tool for seeing. And we've already mentally created massive social data spaces, from text-based to our current feed-driven social media systems.

“Virtual reality spaces will likely gain popularity as a pastime for some, but will remain hopelessly inaccessible or overly restrictive for others. Augmented reality technologies may be growing in popularity in niche applications, but their societal impact and inconveniences are likely to remain in everyday life. The really interesting thing will be how we structure and code life, not how we visualize those codes.”

Jörg Lessard, information curator and media and communications expert at MediaMentor.ca, replied, “That's marketing bullshit—-and hopefully people will figure it out by then, but probably not in the way Facebook is right now.”

Gary M. Grossman,Associate Director of Programs at the School for the Future of Innovation in Society at Arizona State University, replied, "There are several reasons why I don't expect the Metaverse evolution to have progressed that far:

  1. This sector has always overestimated the impact of technology on human society. Technology will no doubt change some things in some way. Information technology has transformed many human activities. However, this did not happen the way it was imagined in, say, 1980. Basic human problems persist regardless of the level of technology adopted by a society. The human society of 2040 will be very similar to the human society of 2022, with some changes in certain areas, as it is now and as it was in 1980, 1900 and all times before.
  2. This requires much broader access to technology than is likely to occur in less than 20 years. I can imagine that certain layers in any society will embrace some aspects of XR more fully, but to take it this far, so deep and so fast there will be far more issues than just the technological potential. We would have to accept a much larger change in the social, political and economic infrastructure to accommodate it effectively, and I very much doubt that we will.
  3. Implicit in the previous point, human society also evolves. The Metaverse vision is an idea from 2022. What matters is how it fits into human society.”

Kerry Rego, a California-based social media and technology consultant, commented, “I can't imagine any positive impacts from this technology adoption, only inequalities and negative impacts on physical, social and emotional health. The technologies used in the Metaverse have been around for decades. The cost of hardware has consistently been prohibitive for the average buyer - not that some can't afford it, but it's outside of their comfort zone. Its development was clumsy and its usefulness is disputed. There will be some acceptance, but not as massive as enthusiasts are currently imagining. It's not that it's not possible, but it's unlikely with current players."

Matthias Schmidt, physicist and programmer at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, replied: "The Metaverse seems to promise to usher in a new era of economic exchange when it should really only be considered useful for its entertainment value. Many people realize that cryptocurrencies also serve no real purpose and have no intrinsic value. They are simply an investment as a speculative commodity that is unlikely to have any value.”

Neil McLachlan, Consultant and Partner at Co Serve Consulting, Australia, commented: “Current and likely next-generation technologies are no better able to synthesize believable virtual reality worlds than they were 20 years ago. The journey from, say, Skype's first launch in 2003 to the clumsy incompleteness of pandemic-driven work-from-home technology like Microsoft Teams is a reasonable approximation of what's happening with interactive technology over a 20-year period. A lot is happening, but little real progress is being made.”

Jesse Drew, associate professor of technocultural studies at the University of California, Davis, wrote: “While fundamental aspects of what is called the metaverse are implemented, that experience is relegated to a more trivial aspect of everyday life that certainly does not deserve the hype that is being generated about it. Games, communications, housekeeping, and electronic control systems will all improve, but I see two forces that will diminish their importance.

“Overall, the environmental improvement/devastation that is happening now will make nature more important to us and help trivialize our invention. The blockchain backlash will be part of that rejection, as was the case with nuclear power in the 1970s and 1980s.”

William Lehr, an economist and technology industry consultant who was formerly associate director of MIT's Internet Convergence and Telecommunications Research Program, said, "I think the vision of a fully immersive metaverse is important and relevant, but 2040 is 20 years old, too soon. Reaching XR's goal of being "fully immersive" is a tall order, and adoption by half a billion people worldwide indicates a quick start. we won't be there

“The Metaverse is best understood as a view of the horizon. It is a vision for a much more powerful virtual world that complements and replaces real-world activities and engagement. If we have the fundamental resources to enable a much richer and more expansive virtual world (extending beyond the "horizon" of the users embedded in the world), then why should we think we would want or have just one ?

(Video) Is The Metaverse The Future?

"There are many potential forks in the road, and which of those forks people take will be the result of policy and path dependencies - I don't really think technical limitations will be the main limitation (i.e. inability for AI systems and hardware/software down to to computing to solve the problems needed to enable a much more immersive and powerful experience in the virtual world than we have today).

“Regarding forks (and path dependency issues) we still don't know which forks we want to close and if we can do it. Is the Metaverse a good thing in balance? This is akin to asking if AI is a good thing overall, and ultimately a stupid question.

"Obviously there are a lot of good things that are really needed in the AI ​​and the metaverse will allow them to be good, but also a lot of bad things that may come. It can be a tool to promote equity, social justice and better matching of supply and demand for more localized markets (where local is every difference that makes a difference).

"I believe that the metaverse and the abilities that make it possible will (and the metaverse may be primarily in demand for creating those abilities - although I'm not saying that, just suggesting it as a sufficient basis for counting its development as positive see) will prove essential to addressing the issues of climate change, which pose an existential threat to the planet (i.e. we need the AI ​​and connectivity the metaverse needs to make a shift to more efficient use of renewable energy and other models to maintain scarce resources). .”

Glyn Moody, technology journalist and author of "Rebel Code: Linux and the Open Source Revolution," replied: "There will be different versions of the metaverse, but most will be fairly trivial and low-level - more like games than anything useful." But still they will attract a lot of people who want to spend time.”

Ian O’Byrne, Assistant Professor of Literacy at the College of Charleston, commented: "The term 'metaverse' is currently an umbrella term for anything that will change over the next decade as the Internet evolves. The same applies to the use of terms such as Web3.

“The exciting thing about these changes and the maturing of digital spaces is that a general decentralization of places, practices and politics seems possible. Web3 can become a random evolution of digital spaces where connections between users can take multiple paths.

“Perhaps digital spaces are more distributed and hopefully users will have more control over their data, information and identity. However, it seems that most of the solutions we see regarding Blockchain, Distributed Ledgers, Metaverse, NFTs and What's Next may not be any better than current solutions. Still, it's exciting to think about the possibilities for decentralizing power and decision-making. Add transparency to the template and count me among them.”

A technology developer and administratorproclaimed, "The 'Metaverse' is straight forward dystopian cyberpunk nonsense. If I'm wrong about not being a thing, it's to our collective detriment as a species."

One respondent expects that by 2040 there could be a new fold that will be much better than the Metaverse.Jean Paul Nkurunziza, Secretary General of the Burundi Youth Training Center in East Africa, commented: "By 2040 there will be more efficient online platforms that offer more efficient solutions than the Metaverse."

It is aProfessor of sociology at a major Texas universitywrote: "There are competing technologies that will prevent the widespread use of virtual reality and other components of the metaverse. Capitalism thwarts cooperation. The Metaverse will be possible in the next 20 years but will not be a fully functioning reality.”

More expert answers from whomdo not do itWe expect the Metaverse to be widely used by 2040, see below. They're broken down into sections that help highlight the four most commonly cited reasons for these experts' doubts:

  • The Metaverse is not considered useful in most people's daily lives.
  • The technology needed to reach more people, more often, won't be ready in 2040.
  • People will prefer to live in layers of "real" reality.
  • Public concern over the effects of surveillance capitalism and authoritarianism will slow or halt adoption.

The Metaverse is not considered useful in everyday life

A segment of those who doubt XR's significant and widespread advances predicted that most people won't want to spend your time, money, or time, money, or money unless people are forced to - for example, by employers, government agencies, or health or other public bodies, attention in more immersive virtual environments. These experts point out that the public did not find the technology useful enough to engage with. Second Life was often cited as an example, with respondents noting that the public has had opportunities to participate in various highly immersive virtual spaces for many years, but has not embraced them extensively. This early VR metaverse platform emerged in the mid-2000s and gradually improved, but participation in it stalled years ago.

read give me, Professor of Information Sciences at UCLA, wrote: "Ultimately, to be successful and to be an acceptable and meaningful part of social life, the metaverse must be much more welcoming, comfortable and relevant to the lives of a much larger number of people, communities and cultures, and better articulated with people's real experiences and concerns than is now positioned".

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (63)Morgan Ames, Associate Director of the Center for Science, Technology, Medicine and Society at the University of California Berkeley, wrote: “We have already experienced several hype cycles focused on virtual worlds, the most recent and widespread being over a decade Second Life focused before. One thing each of these hype cycles hasn't addressed is virtual reality's Achilles' heel: how poorly it integrates with real-life standards.

“First, it's difficult for people to have enough space in their physical environment to move realistically in virtual worlds. Furthermore, these virtual worlds tend to be visual and auditory only; Relying solely on those two senses is far from "immersive," and the many attempts at providing haptic and other feedback have been crude at best.

“In addition, a significant portion of the population in virtual worlds continues to suffer from motion sickness, migraines, or other debilitating physical symptoms. While increased frame rates might help some with the last point, the first two aren't going away.

“The hilarious lack of legs in the Metaverse vaporware videos just drives it home! A crucial element in this is the inability of virtual reality to blend with the commitments and attentional needs of real life. When we use our cellphones or other devices, we are still environmentally conscious of our surroundings and are often easily interrupted. This type of use is confused with duties of care and other caring practices that shape many people's lives. Virtual reality, on the other hand, eliminates this environmental awareness. In fact, there are plenty of videos of people with VR headsets tripping over their kids, and the vaporware videos that Meta has posted about the Metaverse show this as well - although they try to portray it as a "plus" for people , which they get away with . True life."

Ben Shneiderman, Distinguished Professor of Computer Science and Founder of the Human Computer Interaction Lab at the University of Maryland, commented, “I believe there will be rapid development and improvement of immersive digital spaces used by many gamers, entertainment seekers, and some other professional users like surgeons. Greatest hits won't be what I would call immersive. There will be enhanced versions of Zoom, Kumospace, etc. , right, up or down. In 2040, immersive spaces that require users to hide the surrounding 'real' world will only appeal to some users and some applications.”

Christine evil, an independent scholar, wrote: “I was listening to a recording of author Neal Stephenson's 'Snow Crash' again. Your metaverse has the best chance with Second Life. Well, Second Life hasn't captured the public as much as the sci-fi fantasy. AR/VR has also not proved as attractive as William Gibson has touted in his comprehensive books. If communities and social posts fail to keep audiences in an immersive virtual environment, how could e-commerce reinvigorate the space?”

Jon Lebkowsky, a former CEO and founder of three tech companies, now an activist writer/blogger specializing in strategic foresight, cyberfreedoms and digital culture at Plutopia News Network, commented, “My three decades of experience working and playing online have taught me that I in In general, the simpler approaches predominate. For example, the strong preference for text-only messaging for communication. Many people play immersive 3D games, but many others don't. Second Life had a fairly dedicated group of adopters, but it never caught on on a large scale.

"I see no evidence that people prefer spending their time online in immersive 3D environments, which is what the term 'metaverse' really suggests. That's not to say there won't be significant advances and implementations in the use of mixed reality technologies. But I think the technologies that will be most easily adopted will be the ones that are the most subtle and nuanced in their implementation, perhaps virtually invisible.”

Thomas G. Dietrich, professor emeritus of computer science at Oregon State University and co-founder and principal scientist of BigML, which provides cloud-based machine learning services at scale, commented, "While I can imagine it being used for arts, entertainment, education, and attraction games, the inherent limitations of virtual worlds will limit their use in other aspects of life. We have decades of experience with virtual worlds. They attracted only a small part of the population. Why weren't they more popular?

"Let's turn that question around and ask: Why should we expect them to be popular?

“For gaming and artistic experiences, virtual worlds offer experiences unavailable in the physical world. One can also imagine virtual trips that would allow anyone to visit Pompeii or the Great Pyramids without having to travel. But virtual worlds cannot replicate physical experiences. Virtual swimming is not physical swimming; Virtual roller coasters are not real roller coasters; Virtual displays (especially head-mounted displays) cannot replicate all aspects of the visual experience. And of course virtual sex is not real sex.

“Furthermore, virtual worlds have increased the risks of fraud and deception. In the physical world, one can at least see a person's true face and read their true body language. In a virtual world, all of this can be wrong. We are already seeing many forms of cheating, including relationship cheating, happening without VR or AR.

“Furthermore, virtual worlds reduce risks and are therefore less attractive and less authentic. The risk of making oneself physically vulnerable to another person in order to court or fight them. Sporting risk. I predict there will be an “authenticity” backlash not only against virtual worlds, but also against Instagram. The hippies of the 1960s will look clean and polished compared to the authenticity seekers of the 2030s.”

Jason Hong, professor in the Institute of Human-Computer Interaction at Carnegie Mellon, wrote: "This is the third, fourth, fifth time the industry has tried to advance AR/VR? What's different this time? Okay, so we've got better hardware, lighter weight, and longer battery life. We have faster network and cloud computing. But is that really enough?

“Virtual reality has been around for a long time and works great in some game situations, but what other use cases? Or, simply put, will AR/VR offer enough value over existing smartphones and the internet, and at a "cost" (price, usability, social acceptance, battery life) low enough to take off? How many scenarios are there where AR/VR works better than a person pulling out their smartphone to get the same information? Sure, smartphone + web isn't quite as gorgeous or awe-inspiring, but it's cheaper to make, easier to program, and will probably get you 80% to 90% of the way through.

“I'm also a huge skeptic of blockchain applications. It's been around for over 14 years now and Bitcoin is still the only attractive app. And Bitcoin so far is only really good for transferring money from one place to another (cheaper but probably no easier than Wells Fargo), buying drugs and other illegal things online, and ransomware. And it only takes as much power as...I don't remember, Iceland? Venezuela? to do these things.

“The first good websites appeared shortly after Tim Berners-Lee invented the web. The first good apps came soon after the PC and the smartphone. Despite many years, we are still struggling with AR/VR and blockchain. I don't see anything fundamentally changing here."

Michael Altman, a social and information scientist at MIT's Center for Research in Equitable and Open Scholarship, replied: "Certainly building virtual worlds has the potential to deliver rich, immersive social interactions that support a freedom of association that creates opportunities for building new communities and new types of communities. However, environments like Second Life and even older text-based MUDs [multi-user domains] show that these benefits don't require sensory immersion.

“Under certain conditions, social interaction can be enriched by sensory immersion. However, for virtual worlds to realize this potential, users themselves must be able to make sense of them and the social opportunities they provide - something that is unlikely to be part of Facebook's proprietary Unified Metaverse/Meta.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (64)Eugene H. Spafford, an Internet pioneer and professor of computer science at Purdue, wrote: "The 'Metaverse' may be useful in entertainment, but for many commercial purposes it will be too much of a hassle to interact.

“We've already seen real weariness for virtual meetings during the pandemic. Maintaining and using the avatars and environments will likely be just as new at first, but quite tiresome for regular use.

“Issues with privacy, security, and rejection of abuse (ads, trolling, stalking, etc.) will make it problematic for many users. Cultural differences will also mean it will be a poor mechanism for international trade and communication.

An anonymous intervieweecommented, "I see the Metaverse as a cynical ploy by tech companies to increase their margins. It is a product with no marketability. I don't see what need the metaverse is responding to. For niche applications like video games where alternate reality immersion is half the goal, VR immersion can be cool. But removing physical attributes at work or in social settings can really hurt communication. Zoom meetings are bad enough; What would Zoom meetings with avatars add?”

Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, said: "People are not going to take the time to do this. They have a life in the real world barring future pandemics.”

Adam Peake, a longtime internet policy expert who has been active in global policy circles at ICANN, IGF and the World Summit on the Information Society, wrote: "If people don't change their attitude towards body modification and the metaverse for implants, I can't." no people who want to use the service are displayed. Just as many people today who need to wear glasses to see well are not undergoing laser surgery – a well-established procedure – I cannot see such a mass shift in attitude happening.”

Howard Rheingold, a pioneering Internet sociologist and author of The Virtual Community, said: "While the term 'metaverse' applies to ideas outside the realm of 'fully immersive digital spaces' (which I use as a term for what is today, known as VR, I suppose), my experiences with VR and Second Life have led me to believe that while there is indeed a significant and vibrant population in Metaverse worlds (remember that esports are already more profitable than physical sports), this however, will not be a significant proportion of the human population".

Peter Rothmann, Professor of Computational Futurology at the University of California, Santa Cruz, replied: “Current metaverse concepts are flawed in one crucial way: there is no reason to use them. Of course, entertainment spaces - formerly known as online games - will continue to exist and expand to include persistent worlds, real-world value-added economies, and so on. metaverse on a daily basis, just as they use social media today. See the 2007 Metaverse Roadmap Project Report.”

Dimitri Williams, associate professor of technology and society at the University of Southern California, wrote: "The metaverse or metaverses will be very robust in 2040, but I don't think the metaverse seen in some fantastic visions is part of the everyday life of most people because it is not fulfilling the roles and functions that we expect to be in everyday life - conducting business, cultivating friendships, gathering information, etc.

“It becomes more important as entertainment for those who like that kind of interface and like to play a participatory role in imaginary content. This has been a vibrant niche since the 1980s and I don't see it changing fundamentally. I'm expecting the same changes and effects we've seen in the streaming TV and gaming transformation, and probably not on a much larger scale. These features are already fully penetrated in most parts of the world, so we have to start from a zero-sum perspective:

“New technologies always make people say, 'What is this new thing doing to us or to us?' but that's not the right question. The correct question is, "What does this new thing do for us or for us more or differently than what it replaces?"

“Games needed to be viewed in terms of their relative merits and demerits compared to television, not just in isolation. Therefore, the metaverses are the same. We will see many types of questions and concerns about predictable values ​​outlined by media effects researchers Wartella and Reeves in the 1980s: What is this new wrinkle in communication that is keeping us from doing what we value? How does it harm us physically? How does this harm us socially?

"I don't think the answers to these questions will be very different from what we've seen in video games and the internet over the past 30 years. What it's worth, that was the subject of my dissertation: I forecast old wine in new bottles. The pros and cons are the same as games and the internet: there's a little harm for aggression, but more harm for being social and experiencing communities in real space, being less present and less connected. There will be some bright spots in terms of individual self-expression and the ability to transcend location to make new connections and experience new cultures and ideas.”

Meredith Goin, a group leader who connects researchers to research and opportunities in US labs, replied: "I haven't heard a compelling story about why I should be interested in joining the metaverse. Space, I don't need another space to store. Heck I'm almost off social media as it's so divisive, time consuming and rarely relevant to my day to day needs.

An expert in large systems and networkscommented, "Overall, I don't find the Metaverse narrative compelling. People want to connect, but it's not clear if they want to connect via 3D virtual reality. I suspect that many people prefer to connect for rich face-to-face interactions, and that 3D virtual reality will be limited to narrower or more specialized applications.”

Georg Capowich, a retired associate professor of sociology at Loyola University in New Orleans, wrote: “The technology will not advance as quickly as its proponents hope. There is still a long way to go before it becomes more than a way for people in different places to play together and find each other. People are already doing these things with their computers. Its influence in daily life will definitely take time to develop.

“Google Glass was launched in 2013 as an early form of augmented reality glasses and was a huge hit with the public. The ability it gave people - showing them a display of information in glasses - was limited and in many cases unnecessary. The people who wore them looked weird to the people they encountered, who often thought they were acting weird and maybe a little creepy (i.e. what is that person with the glasses looking at me, while she is talking to me).

“It takes time before new technologies can be optimally used. The microwave oven was first introduced in 1947 and heralded as a revolution in cooking that could save time and eliminate the need for ovens and stoves entirely. Over the many decades it took before it was finally widely used, we have learned that microwaves are useful, but in more limited ways. They're great for reheating leftovers, cooking frozen meals, and making popcorn. We still need ovens to cook family meals and ovens to roast meat and vegetables. The Metaverse is still in its infancy and will remain so for a while.”

Randall Mayes, journalist, author and trainer, replied: “The good sides are not obvious. People don't say that if we had a metaverse, we could do this and do it better. Internet entrepreneurs present a rather ambiguous vision of building a cyberland and let others figure out what to do with it. There are two different ways to examine the metaverse. Some see it as a revolution or a paradigm shift into a new era, some call it "Web3". Rather, I think it's not a move to a virtual world or space, it's simply a continuation of the evolution of the mobile Internet.

“What the internet will look like in 2040 depends on how the various products, services, and resources of the metaverse integrate over time. For gamers, the benefits are relaxing and perhaps fueling their addiction.

“To drive broader adoption, tech startups and incumbents need to integrate products and services that can deliver benefits by outperforming other digital technologies. However, since this development does not have a well-defined conceptual definition or legal infrastructure, investing large amounts of money in virtual real estate and commercial transactions is risky.

“McDonald's recently announced that customers will be able to order food from their virtual McCafe and have it delivered using digital currencies and quite expensive hardware in the form of a headset. It will help eliminate paper money and coins, but does it really have an advantage over a credit card order?”

João Lázaro, a retired professor of electrical engineering and computer science at the University of California, Berkeley, wrote: “We already did this experiment with Second Life. Wagner James Au, author of The Making of Second Life: Notes from the New World, presents a compelling argument that the asymptotic endpoint of Metaverse communities is a multidimensional niche: people of a certain age range who are willing to pay a finite amount spend time in between to perform a limited number of activities. I read an interview with him that Parmy Olson did in the Bloomberg Opinion section and he makes a good case. I recommend everyone who is interested in the topic to follow this interview on the internet and decide for themselves.”

An experienced senior engineer who has worked at several large technology companieswrote: “His success will depend on what he can do to allow for and coexist with real human factors. The metaverse is an area that can continue to enable better and more complete remote collaboration on many different fronts - telemedicine, remote work, social interaction, customer service, training/school, even things like virtual shopping - and trying on clothes to see How It Fits You personally test how you fit in a vehicle, virtually visit a house or apartment, and try some art or a new paint color in your space.

“While it's true that there are some experiences that don't translate well to virtual space and continue to benefit from physical presence, there are also many that will benefit from better representation of physical space in the digital realm, with it People can interact with each other more naturally si – virtual bar, water fountain, meeting room etc.

"There could be a better representation of things like social cues, facial expressions and the like. This will be crucial in turning the Metaverse into something better than a glorified Zoom call. Over the past few years we've gained a lot of experience on what it's like to have a lot more daily interactions in the virtual domain - what works, what doesn't, how to make it feel more natural.

"We must learn from these experiences in order to make something different from another Second Life clone that is only embraced by a subset of society that already accepts existing in primarily virtual spaces. If "normal" people cannot see this as an acceptable substitute for physical presence in a variety of applications, it will fail."

A UK expert in virtual environments, digital media and internet social sciencessaid: "As someone who has been involved with virtual reality for 30 years, with two books, edited books and many articles in major magazines on the subject, I can safely say that the Metaverse concept is complete bullshit -. VR goes through waves of excitement and disappointment and will become niche applications for immersive and widespread video conferencing and various blended applications.”

The technology needed to reach many more people will not be ready in 2040

Some respondents believe that the necessary developments in software, hardware, user interfaces and/or network capabilities will not have progressed far enough over the next 18 years. They gave several reasons including that the network infrastructure will not be mature and built enough to handle it; the equipment will still not be easy to use; and there are questions about cost and accessibility.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (65)Vint Cerf, an Internet Hall of Famer and Vice President of Google, wrote: "I am not convinced that we will see the same proliferation of headphones as cell phones and laptops. It's possible that 500 million will own headphones by 2040, but the "network effect" may require much more widespread distribution before people feel compelled to buy them.

"If inhabiting the metaverse involves physical movement to get around in VR, it would have to be done in facilities specially designed for the purpose, avoiding bumping into walls, windows, etc. The virtual conversation will be very artificial as the headset will cover the real faces. Manipulation of virtual objects can be interesting and useful (e.g. 3D whiteboards). By simultaneously occupying a 3D space, interesting simulations can be carried out and models examined.

"If the concept catches on, there will be exciting business opportunities for selling virtual clothing, objects, tools, avatars, etc., and the gap between the real and the fake will continue to narrow."

Eric Burger, who most recently served in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and as the FCC's Chief Technology Officer, now on the Computer Science Department at Georgetown University, replied: "The metaverse will function like remote-controlled self-driving cars, or passable: for decades almost here, but structurally improbable for decades. Use cases for fully immersive experiences have a small niche that, for economic reasons, is unlikely to develop into a global phenomenon in the coming decades.”

read give me, Professor of Information Science at UCLA, has written a comprehensive answer covering several of the issues that are likely to slow down the development of a more sophisticated XR metaverse. She wrote: “The estimated half billion users of the metaverse by 2040 is a relatively small fraction of the world's population, which is currently approaching 8 billion and will approach 10 billion if current growth rates continue. To support broad, user-friendly accessibility, digital infrastructure would need to evolve and innovate much faster by 2040 than it has over the past decade.

“Today's devices are increasingly loaded with features and sensors etc - smartphones, watches and other custom technologies are essentially always-on surveillance tools - and networks/'clouds' carry and collect a lot more data, but people are mostly using the same smartphones, tablets and laptops for everyday internet use, which has been around for a while as of generation, and the internet works with the same (still robust) protocols.

“Today's quirky, cumbersome headsets or haptic devices for VR, AR, etc. haven't gained much acceptance - they're intrusive, confusing (even nauseating). More powerful desktop devices are still needed to support intense and immersive gaming, data analysis and visualization, perhaps especially blockchain technologies, etc. All require a prodigious use of energy and natural resources (minerals, water, non-recyclable materials).

"This is a separate issue from actual (social, economic, geographic, etc.) consistent regulation of accessibility that ensures competition."

Daniel S. Schiff, a Ph.D. The candidate, who studies the governance and social and ethical implications of AI at Georgia Tech's School of Public Policy, offered an even broader look at a range of issues surrounding the technology that are driving AR's broader functionality and adoption and VR is required. He said: "Today, a decade after Oculus ran a hugely successful Kickstarter campaign, adoption of VR and AR headsets and accessories remains limited. Headphones continue to be bulky, clunky and often difficult to use, especially for those without significant technological knowledge.

“Setup is challenging, often requiring the use of powerful and currently hard-to-access graphics cards, base stations for tracking, ample space, and a wired connection for high-end computers. Less advanced VR systems rely on currently inconsistent wireless connections or offer less graphics capability, but also present battery capacity and interoperability challenges.

“Now the cost of these systems often runs into the hundreds and thousands of US dollars, a price that is unaffordable for the majority of the public, even in high-income countries, let alone individuals in low-income countries or regions. This in itself presents a significant barrier to global adoption at the scale Metaverse advocates desire.

“Many of these obstacles can be overcome in the next two decades. To overcome these challenges, developers must use wireless technologies minimally, maybe two or more paradigms ahead, improve battery capacity and visual fidelity, improve internal or cloud-based graphics processing power, while reducing the footprint and increasing the convenience of VR. Devices.

"Furthermore, they probably need to tackle all of these challenges together rather than bargaining between them, and they should do so while reducing costs by almost an order of magnitude." Such a breakthrough not only requires direct generational leaps in VR/AR technology; It is also dependent on broader trends in computing, battery and wireless technology adoption and is becoming sensitive to challenges such as supply chain stability, rare earth mineral availability, cryptocurrency mining, energy consumption and environmental concerns and regulations related to the privacy or misinformation respond . Interoperability challenges can arise as companies compete to “own” the metaverse.

“The broader audience is the audience critical to the development of a true metaverse. The phenomenological experience of entering a virtual space arguably requires a more profound paradigm shift compared to the shift associated with the introduction of computers, smartphones, and wireless internet, and such a shift may require a generational shift. It is undermined by the intolerance of older generations and the parents/guardians of young people.

“These changes are not likely to go smoothly. It seems possible that tens of millions of people will use VR spaces for activities such as simple conversations, digital shopping and digital tourism, or other entertainment activities. But even these basic activities come with potential discomfort from headphones, motion sickness, or eyestrain from wearing a VR headset, glasses, or gloves for hours on end.

“The extension of the broad multi-environment or user-generated approach to the metaverse (the Second Life model, Roblox or Minecraft) and its use in training environments is plausible. To become more populated, the metaverse may need to replace current social media (the Facebook or TikTok model) to truly consistently reach hundreds of millions of people.

“While it seems likely that hundreds of millions of people could engage with VR/AR technologies over the next decade, overall I expect the majority of applications will be focused on nature rather than a full-spectrum change to reflect . society towards a common community. Metaverse or metaverse as a basic element of everyday life”.

Steve Jones, professor of communications at the University of Illinois-Chicago, said: "The scale of technological development to make one type of virtual reality better than the next best thing is unattainable in a 20-year period."

The biggest obstacle to rapid immersion in high-resolution, low-latency true VR is the cost of building a global network capable of supporting that vision.

Randy MarchanyVirginia Tech, information technology security officer — he previously worked for the White House Partnership for Critical Infrastructure Security — wrote, “Universal high-speed Internet access will not be ready by 2040 on the network. A high-speed Internet infrastructure is key for these new technologies to work.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (66)Neil Davis, co-founder of Predictable Network Solutions and pioneer of the committee that oversaw the UK's early network developments, commented: "There are fundamental network limitations in terms of the amount and timeliness of information that needs to be exchanged, regardless of the amount of local storage and computing power. These boundaries are set, some of them physical (timeliness is key), some of them technological (capabilities of non-wired connections), many of them economic (computing power needed to create and maintain an environment, whether the statistical Multiplexing is required to make cost effective deployments achievable).

“There will be niche uses – but impacting the daily lives of hundreds of millions? For this to happen, it will either be a low-level experience (not as immersive) or for a select few (so not much of a global society). Is it a new digital divide? The question arises as to which experiences can be distributed effectively.

“If the digitally conveyed 'reality' is one that does not allow the user to enter the 'flow', then it is unusable/used (and can even be considered harmful - this concern already exists elsewhere). Distributed haptic sensations (such as those required to emulate distant touch sensations) are already a barrier—a 1-millisecond discrepancy between what the user “expects” and what “experiences” is enough to create cognitive dissonance. This creates a deep insecurity that shakes people fundamentally. Remember to miss the bottom rung of a ladder or something similar.

“Again, when it comes to distributed ledger technologies in terms of metaverse development, the fundamental limitations mentioned above will set the limits. The global distribution of information for ledger updates takes a significant amount of time. In combination with the information density that such a global distribution requires, they come up against two fundamental limits: timeliness and cost-effectiveness.

“I'm all for breaking down hegemonic barriers and creating high-quality distributed interactions, but the approaches employed ignore the basics and will only disappoint. That's not to say fortunes can't be made along the way, but it does raise the question of whether those driving that future understand - are they unaware or are they just popping the next bubble?

Stephan G. Humer, sociologist and computer scientist at Hochschule Fresenius in Berlin, said that the focus of network development in the next decade will not be on enabling ubiquitous XR. "The war in Ukraine," he said, "will have a major impact on the development of digitization. This strengthens, among other things, cyber defence, resilience, disaster management, civil protection, civil digital competence and critical infrastructures. As a result, other aspects of internet development, such as the metaverse, will likely need to take a back seat to, if not bow to, these requirements.”

The Metaverse won't be very popular unless its level of usability can match the natural feel and convenience that the public has experienced with smartphones.

Longtime IETF leader and main architect of one of the five largest technology companies in the worldsaid, “The current Metaverse ecosystem has inherent limitations that prevent it from becoming a mass-market phenomenon. On the one hand the costs: The wiring harness requires the computing power of a high-end smartphone or a game console. Unlike games that can be streamed from the cloud, attempts to support the Metaverse on smartphone platforms (such as Google's Daydream View) have not caught on. If the problem of cost cannot be solved, widespread introduction in developing countries will be hampered.

“Another issue is intrusion: In contrast to a smartphone, smartwatch or smart glasses, the current generation of glasses interferes with everyday life. Instead of tackling these fundamental issues head-on, Meta is trying to bring Oculus headphones to the mass market with brute force: trying to offload them onto trucks at Costco and spending huge bucks developing the Metaverse ecosystem to spur demand. That effort was an unprecedented failure, wiping out a third of Meta's market cap as the disaster dawned on analysts.

"At this point, the only likely prospect of bringing the Metaverse to the mass market rests with Apple. Microsoft is solely focused on the business with HoloLens, Google has abandoned Daydream and Meta needs to refocus on competing with TikTok.”

Daniel S. Schiff, Ph.D. Georgia Tech candidate replied. “While norms can and do change, ongoing challenges to social acceptance and usability can severely limit penetration of the metaverse. For example, while elementary and high school students can easily access a smartphone to use traditional text, image, or video-based social media services, it seems highly likely that wearing a virtual reality headset in a classroom would be more difficult use the school corridor. , for functional and security reasons and due to the limited tolerance of the authorities.

“The same applies to people who are queuing in the supermarket, in the doctor's office or in general at work. If the metaverse is relatively relegated to protected entertainment time in dedicated rooms of the house, its overall penetration could suffer significantly.

"Considering that the constant use of smartphones in all areas of a person's life is associated with the 'addictive' properties of social media, conversely, persistent non-use of VR headsets implies lower adoption."

Christian Huitema, a privacy consultant, 40-year software and internet industry veteran, and former director of the Internet Architecture Council, asked, “Can virtual reality really appeal to most people? We see people glued to their phones and can imagine them lost in their VR helmets, but human interactions for VR are very difficult to design, as evidenced by the lack of legs in Facebook's 2021 avatar prototypes.

“Current technology can capture facial movement and map it to an avatar's head, but managing the whole body is much more difficult. People using virtual reality devices cannot move very far without risking bumping into walls, knocking over vases of flowers, and possibly injuring themselves. A fundamental limit to the acceptance of virtual games is that movements in them must be generated by interaction devices. This is also a possible reason for the fragmentation of the market as different virtual games experiment with different user interfaces. That's one of the reasons why augmented reality will likely be much more acceptable than full virtual reality."

Alex Geker, a senior professor of communications at Tel Aviv University who was the first to describe the assertion of world-class video games driving investment in the metaverse, commented, "Most of the contributors building the metaverse seem to have very little experience with virtual worlds have, the technology makes it complicated and awkward, and it all goes against the grain of the highly interpretable casual media use that has been successfully introduced into smartphones and embraced by the public.”

Jennifer deWinter, Professor of Interactive Game Theory and Production and Management of VR and AR Games at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, wrote: "Most people in the world today can easily and inexpensively access online communities via phones, even in the US, but that Metaverse is envisaged for more expensive PCs with significant processing power and graphics cards.

“Imagining the positive aspects of the internet that we will see in 2040, I see that they will still be found in the distributed knowledge communities already accessible. This can of course be knowledge work (school, work, research), but also community building and the resulting knowledge of identity (LGBTQ+, diasporas, BIPOC communities, etc.).

“The location isn't that much of a barrier to entry at best. We are already in a computer-mediated networked society. Problems arise from how Western nations conceptualize the metaverse—often as virtual reality, augmented reality, or data-intensive.”

Adam Peake, a longtime Internet policy expert who has been active in global policy circles at ICANN, IGF and the World Summit on the Information Society, commented: "I don't think the technology needed to access the 'Metaverse' will be developed by 2040 to make it attractive as a mass market product/service. Headphones and other user interfaces remain clunky and unusable for long periods of time. Even if they succeed in reducing optical head-mounted displays to a further development of Google Glass, for example, they will not be socially acceptable for many reasons.”

Robert bell, co-founder of the Intelligent Community Forum, wrote: "I have great difficulty believing in mass adoption of a technology that requires you to put goggles over your eyes that block your view of the real world and wear haptic gloves that block your." Ability to affect touch the real world. The times I was introduced to the current generation of VR, I was deeply scared because my primary senses were intentionally blinded so I could have a virtual experience. The technology is being eagerly embraced by niche audiences. players are one. Real porn trailers are another option, especially when haptic devices get...really haptic.”

Rosalie-Tag, an independent technology policy advisor, said: “Conversion rates of older Millennials, Xer and Baby Boomer generations into immersive digital spaces will be low in the coming decades to 2030, mainly because of additional equipment that is expensive and heavy. Fully immersive digital spaces in the next decade will create further divisions in society between technology users and non-users. The current subset of the population who are gamers, not just phone gamers, and future cohort adopters are likely to be heavy users of immersive technologies for recreational activities.”

Kerry Mark Meyer, Senior Principal Engineer, Network Development at Dell EMC, replied, “While computing technology is capable of providing users with a rich visual and auditory experience, the possibilities for the other senses are limited. This makes creating a "fully immersive" experience an effort, if not an impossibility. However, I believe that by 2040, the metaverse will be a much more sophisticated and functional aspect of many people's daily lives."

Meta Researcher (Facebook) whose work focuses on helping the public understand and deal with the impact of social mediacommented, “Immersive technology needs to improve significantly and come down in cost for billions of people to use it. Internet is required in all rooms. I believe the metaverse will be an integral part of games and other experiences, but it will remain an adjunct to real life rather than an integral part of it.”

An award-winning AI ethics expertsaid: “2040 is too early. Adoption of AI will accelerate as cloud adoption will also accelerate over the next five years. AI will be a key element as technology matures in the metaverse - a convergence of technology trends that will allow users to experience our digital world in new ways and with new levels of autonomy and freedom. Data alone cannot create great value. It needs to be organized, analyzed, and leveraged at scale—which is what AI can do.

“For this type of investment in AI to really pay off, it needs to be integrated into application systems that run 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. These systems, in turn, require cloud-based computing power that can be scaled up and down to cost-effectively meet changing requirements. With these imperatives, it is clear why leading companies are increasingly investing in and managing data, AI and cloud (DAC) as one.”

A senior scientist at a large accessible technology centerwrote: "While many technological problems related to the 'Metaverse' have been solved, there are still prohibitively difficult problems in delivering a truly immersive experience that is natural, organic and free of side effects for all users. Second, there are also environmental and infrastructure bans to provide a truly immersive experience in environments where wireless networks may be poor or inadequate.

“If we think about the proliferation of cell phones and eventually smartphones, the growth in cell phone adoption was primarily an advance toward environments that could support the necessary infrastructure (like the transition of the first cell phones into cars and the first in developed countries where cell towers were installed). We are currently at the age of the first cell phones that people put in their cars. And in my opinion, this is a technology that will never be as 'justified' in adoption as mobile phones in terms of usefulness, urgency and the need to overcome barriers to adoption."

A longtime engineer and internet pioneer who works as an open source consultantcommented: “It will take more than 20 years for many actors to agree on a standard. It takes two or three of them to reach 30% mindshare, and even then they will FAIL.”

People will prefer to live in layers of "real" reality

Some experts predicted that even as technology becomes leaner and more accessible, most people will still find full immersion in VR uncomfortable, preferring to be absorbed in the real world.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (67)Henning Schulzrinne, Internet Hall of Famer, co-chair of the IEEE Internet Technical Committee and professor at Columbia University, commented, “Adding virtual reality alone hardly seems transformative unless it makes the activity significantly more productive or enjoyable.

"Given the much greater mental and physical commitment required for VR, I see this as a very limited time activity for most, spending maybe an hour a day in the immersive environment, but the rest of the day being a work or entertainment activity is... it's less intense, less engaging. After all, nobody likes a workday full of back-to-back Zoom meetings — and then you can turn off the camera.

“Just as the transition to online video conferencing during the pandemic has made people more conscious of their home office setup, the same can be seen in digital spaces. But the novelty of fake bookshelves and green screens quickly wore off, and people reverted to plain, blurry backgrounds. It wouldn't surprise me if people in professional settings would quickly gravitate towards generic metaverse digital cubicles and meeting rooms."

Matt Moore, a knowledge management entrepreneur at Innotecture, based in Australia, asked, "What does 'virtual reality' mean? Could it text someone? Reply to an email? On a Zoom call? Delving into Wordle? Dragged into Hearts of Iron 4? All of these things are compelling and we're immersed in them, but that's not what we're talking about when we talk about "immersive digital spaces." Our time in digital worlds is when we mess up this real reality so much we have nowhere to go. Then again, there's a good chance this could happen, so maybe we'll all become fugitives from reality in the metaverse. That's a really depressing thought.

Christoph Fry, Director of Languages ​​at Haddington Dynamics, replied: “I was involved in VR research in the 1980s, others preceded me by decades. Certain technological directions seem "obvious" but are not. We humans have severe cognitive biases that prevent us from understanding complexities about ourselves and physics. VR is one of those things.”

Eduardo Villanueva-Mansilla, associate professor at the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú and editor of the Journal of Community Informatics, wrote: “Unlike current social media services, the metaverse requires free time and dedication that many people do not necessarily have. Although young users in particular spend a significant amount of time using social media services, the required attention span is shorter, the sensory overload is spread across many different options, and the possibilities for sharing are diverse.

“The Metaverse is viewed not so much as an option for immersive experiences, but as a complete experience that requires a summarization of cognitive resources that would be too time-consuming and expensive in technical resources to become as appealing to the same number of people who currently use the social networks. Additionally, control over experiences would be perceived differently, and the autonomy of experiences—the metaverse requires real-time interaction with other people—could be an impediment.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (68)Michael H. Goldhaber, an author, consultant, and theoretical physicist who wrote early studies on the economics of digital attention, wrote: “VR will never play a big role for most internet users. It will not change society as much as the current internet, smartphones and social media have done so far. If we look back at the history of 3D in film, with repeated attempts beginning in the early 1950s, we will see that it never caught on permanently, remaining a fad with occasional resurgences in new formats.

“In none of the formats that followed did the extra dimension consistently add enough realism or drama. Humans normally perceive the world in little more than two dimensions; the third doesn't add much.

“Likewise, but maybe even more so, VR will just mean too much added hassle for too little gain. Of course, some players will use it, and occasionally it can be beneficial for people to discuss specific projects. But even if VR can be useful, like e.g. B. Displaying data in more than two dimensions, it is mostly easy to use regular perspective plus time division to display the same without the need for VR.

“Consider the video Zuckerberg used when he rebranded the Facebook company to Meta. It's a pure novelty that would take normal people a lot of time and effort to set up to be very worthwhile. Good for kids parties maybe, but not for most web interactions.

“I suspect that the fundamental appeal of the internet and social media will continue to compete for attention. VR is just an inefficient way of doing this for most of us most of the time, and that can't really change. We don't need to show our bodies in 3D or in elaborate disguises to attract attention, except as a rare novelty.”

Bob Frankston, a pioneer in software and internet innovation, wrote: “Shared visualizations and other experiences are becoming increasingly important as improvements, but not as substitutes for the broader reality. I typically turn off my audio and video during a meeting (a term increasingly used to refer to being online) unless my presence is required.

"My attention is too valuable to be at the mercy of a metaverse. I look forward to new technologies, but emulating the past seems like a simplified view of the future.

"Concepts like 'immersive digital spaces and digital life' are already with us, but we tend to use the richness of words rather than just images. And it is enriched by allowing asynchronous interactions.

“We've seen repeated attempts to program by drawing diagrams and using symbols to digitally reproduce the physical world. However, programming has moved away from chart approaches. It is significant that supposed imagery like hieroglyphs quickly become abstract and phonetic because we need abstractions to understand and communicate.”

James A. Danowski, President of Communications and Technology Sciences, predicted, “People don't need extra bandwidth to interact with other people in most types of work. By 2040, metaverse and social media will be gone. Direct interaction via digital means will continue to be important, but there is enough, or perhaps too much, social presence with today's video apps like Zoom.

  • As social media declines, so will the metaverse built upon it.
  • The net effect of the metaverse on how we think about our world and ourselves will be a renewed emphasis on direct human interaction not mediated by avatars.
  • A consensus will emerge that social media and the metaverse have created more social problems than benefits and that their use will be restricted.
  • By 2040, the new digital world order centered on China will see the far-reaching global impact of Chinese paternalistic leadership and digital authoritarianism.
  • Like Second Life and current VR, metaversal platforms will only be attractive as niche entertainment spaces. They will not be the dominant activity on the network.”

Josua Hatch, Director of Digital Platforms and Audiences for The Chronicle of Higher Education, responded: “The adoption of digital technology happened when and where it solved problems or made 'real life' tasks easier – reading news from distant places; download movies instantly; Have real-time conversations with scattered loved ones.

"The Metaverse is an alternative way of doing these things, but nothing about it suggests it does anything much better or easier. In fact, it seems to make these things worse and more difficult. Perhaps I'm not imaginative enough to imagine how this could work with technology simplified enough to the point of being almost transparent. Still, I find it difficult to see the value it brings.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (69)Mark Crowley, an assistant professor of computer engineering at the University of Waterloo whose research seeks reliable and transparent ways to improve human decision-making, replied: “The real world is, and always will be, far richer and more important than virtual reality. . I believe the limiting factor for fully immersive activities will be that they are unnecessary. Some people may think they want it or that they can make money from it. I know a lot about it, I'm an AI researcher and have read the latest science fiction predictions about different types of metaverse and used Second Life and other previous attempts at virtual reality worlds.

“The more advanced we get, the more we need to realize that our connection to the real world is important. Furthermore, no matter how advanced the options available, people always seem to be drawn to the primary forms of expression that ground them in reality: text, images, videos. The rise of Instagram and TikTok are prime examples.

“But to me, one of the most compelling reasons is the frankly shocking persistence of 'old' communication paradigms like IRC chat commands, VI keyboard shortcuts and basic emoticons. Humans did not evolve to communicate and tell stories via three-dimensional storyboards.

“I have no doubt that dedicated and creative people, artists and engineers will continue to spend a lot of time creating amazing content in these new realities. But the average person will stick to text, images, and the occasional video edit. Sharing newly created videos and memes is nothing new, it has always existed in various media, but creating it is difficult.

“The Metaverse demands that everyone create and communicate in a way that goes beyond any natural inclination, and what you get are amazing interactive galleries and event spaces where the vast majority of people still just text, chat and video call each other . Miscellaneous. Why bother?

Patrick Larvi, global head of Google's Workplace User Experience team, pointed out problem areas that are another likely factor why the majority of the target audience prefers to live their digital life with today's interactive options. “The metaverse will remain relatively isolated, separate from most aspects of digital life. Significant privacy and data management issues will remain and be discouraging for commercial services. Also, "fully immersive" isn't necessarily a positive. Many aspects of “fully immersive” environments will have psychological, social, and physical downsides, some of which are significant.”

Adam Holland, project manager at the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University, wrote: "1) No matter how good they are, virtual reality spaces are going to be very clunky and cumbersome. They're getting better, but they remain a niche. Living in Second Life - actually living in it as your true reality - sounds awful. Reality is hard enough; We don't need an overlap. 2) Climate change and how it is managed will render anything that is power hungry or prohibitively expensive useless to all but a few.”

John L. King, Professor at the University of Michigan School of Information, said, “The Second Life experience is instructive. It's still there, but it's not what many thought when it first appeared. The necessary “real world” social controls, etiquette conventions, and so forth cannot evolve in a few years. The metaverse might work the way it does now in 2040—with enough disbelief undone, which usually means a distortion of reality—but it will feel like a game for a long time to come.”

Alan D.Mutter, a consultant and former CEO of Silicon Valley, wrote, "While the Metaverse will no doubt be more refined and more widely embraced by many by 2040, I find it hard to imagine people abandoning face-to-face interactions in favor of virtual one-on-one interactions." The Metaverse can be a useful tool in many applications, but will it take over the world? Maybe. But I hope not.

Kenneth A. Grady, futurist and founding author of The Algorithmic Society blog, wrote: “Enthusiasm and anticipated economic wealth tend to drive predictions about technology rather than sober estimates of technological development and societal acceptance. The last two years of the pandemic have given us real-world insights into technology adoption and its pitfalls. We've seen rapid adoption of video conferencing and other online communication tools. At the same time, we have seen an increase in user uneasiness in the face of alienation generated by the dramatic increase in the use of online tools. We also saw significant gaps between what the technology could do and what users wanted.

“Users wanted real-time communication that was as smooth as face-to-face communication. The reality, however, has been a huge drop in the information needed for smooth communication. It lacked visual cues telling users when to start and stop speaking, change communication style, clarify, stop excessive communication, and adapt to multi-party discussions. A lack of visual cues (and, to some extent, filtered auditory cues) made communication difficult and reduced the humanity of conversations.

“Now, as people resume face-to-face interactions, they find their social skills have rusted. They missed the spontaneity of unfiltered interactions and enjoyed the richness of being in the same room with others. Adding to the problems of planned interactions is that the Metaverse will have great difficulty replicating unplanned interactions.

“The chance encounters on a conference escalator, the shared taxi ride to the airport, the chance tables next to each other in a restaurant. These types of experiences bring joy to the participants, even if they essentially mean nothing most of the time. Only the boundless enthusiasm of tech enthusiasts, and the equally boundless desire of tech companies to expand markets, suggest that the metaverse will emerge to meet such challenges.”

An expert on the evolution of knowledge generation in a time of accelerated technological changereplied: “The barriers are not primarily technical, but social, psychological and experiential. I find it hard to imagine wanting to live in an expanded and confusing world, especially given the likelihood that due to the current ecosystem (both in VR/AR and the regular app space) there is limited ability to choose between Moving platforms and apps without constantly changing identities, avatars and experiences.

"When I switch from my email identity and interface to my Facebook identity and interface, I need to follow different interaction rules and show a different facet of my identity. If I tried that in an expanded space, it would be completely upsetting and unwelcome.”

Philipp Salem, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Communications at Texas State University, replied: “There are many other competing distractions, so I don't think there will be rapid adoption of technologies before 2040. Development could actually slow down.”

Kelly Bates, President of the Interaction Institute for Social Change, wrote: “I don't know if people of all generations will adapt so quickly to shifting so many aspects of human interaction 360 degrees online.

“A positive point of its positive development would be that if the world suffered more catastrophic events, it could offer more alternatives for business, economy and human communication.

“On the negative side, it will encourage less face-to-face human interaction needed for collaboration, collaboration, peace and quality mental health. I could see the metaverse taking place earlier, but to be accountable it must be balanced with an overall plan, commitment and principles of necessary physical human interaction. I would be interested in helping with that.”

Kerry Mark Meyer, Senior Principal Engineer, Network Development at Dell EMC, replied, “There are many other aspects of everyday life that the Metaverse will likely never replace, at least as the preferred option for the 'real' thing. For example: while I personally partake in a virtual reality form of cycling (through bike training apps and a bike trainer designed to work with them), it will never be a fully immersive experience like riding outdoors. It's great for a rainy day and other situations when walking outdoors isn't practical. But I don't expect it ever to convey the sensations of the wind blowing past me, carrying the changing scents of the flowers that are blooming today, and the synchronized sensations when accelerating downhill or around corners.”

Public concern over the effects of surveillance capitalism and authoritarianism will slow or halt adoption

Some of these specialists said they expected that the general public would not be willing to invest their time and energy in virtual spaces or use virtual tools if they felt it would expose them to greater manipulation and surveillance by corporate and social media /or would be exposed to government interests.

Seth Finkelstein, Consulting Programmer and winner of the Electronic Frontier Foundation Pioneer Award, commented, "I'm not the first person to bring up all the old hype about Second Life and how ridiculous it all seems now. But it's not about being reflexively skeptical. The question arises as to why this failed and what reason is there to believe this latest iteration will succeed?

"Promoting the metaverse seems to me bogged down in the core idea that multiplayer games are really cool, and if you could somehow squeeze more of real life into an online game, it would be like (literally) making money for it print companies, that gets it. do it. While the conclusion follows from the premise, the execution leaves a lot to be desired. It's like a Gnome Underpants joke:

  1. Online game worlds are amazing.
  2. Some aspects of real life can be simulated online.
  3. Was?
  4. BENEFIT!

“Moreover, I see blockchain as poorly suited for metaverse applications as it is almost the complete opposite in terms of architecture. So far, blockchains have had a real type of application, for relatively powerful entities that are completely distrustful of each other but want to avoid an even more powerful regulator (e.g. very wealthy people wanting to avoid government restrictions on the flow of capital). , coin). This isn't decentralization, it's narrower, similar to the conflicts between feudal lords and a king.

“However, Metaverse is a pure master/servant relationship. Some of the largest companies in the world operate services with enormous computing resources and bandwidth, where each individual has only negligible performance. I assume that there will be many experts on the possibility of a portability of identity between different domains. This is the standard problem in data portability. None of the lords has any incentive to let the serfs move freely.

Morgan Ames, associate director of the Center for Science, Technology, Medicine and Society at the University of California, Berkeley, observed: "There is a lot of distrust around surveillance practices and the commercialization of our everyday lives by big corporations like Meta. There's really nothing about virtual reality that's so compelling that people would be willing to submit to this level of surveillance and commercialization. Most depictions of virtual reality in science fiction are set in a dystopian world. I think that is significant. The real world would have to be a pretty hell of a place for most people to want to spend a lot of time in what will always be an impoverished experience, subject to heavy surveillance and commercialization.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (70)Gunther Gorizia, Emeritus Professor of AI at the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany, commented: "It's a nightmare to see that Baudrillard could finally be right. The so-called "Metaverse" is the latest business gag of digital platform capitalism. I hope people are smart enough to tell the difference between real (social) life and computer game simulations aimed at financial gain for the benefit of some super rich.

“They do away with the social contract, democracy and the success of the Enlightenment. People's online activities should be integrated into real social life in the service of a better and peaceful life for the entire world population and a healthy environment. Instead, many become addicted to temptations that are beyond their control.

"So hopefully there won't be a metaverse transition. In terms of the global dictatorship mentality, where the metaverse ideology might eventually lead, the difference between Mark Zuckerberg and other Silicon Valley super-capitalists and [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and his peers is smaller than you might think. So resistance is the watchword, not adaptation.”

Felix Stadler, a researcher, speaker and activist on the social implications of ICT at the Zurich University of the Arts, wrote: “I imagine that the reach of the metaverse remains limited and has a strong backlash. It is limited by its ultra-commercial orientation, which hampers radical experimentation, and by the problematic behavior and position of large corporations, which provoke a social backlash that will further limit its application. It will be a collection of specialized settings like remote work, conferencing of all kinds, gaming and shopping.”

A Canadian professor and multimedia journalistcommented, "It's shocking how quickly the Metaverse is being seen as an acceptable extension of the digital world, given the dangerous issues it currently harbors. Regardless of the speed at which investors are embracing new avenues to generate revenue to exploit human curiosity and ingenuity, the metaverse is poised to address current threats such as misinformation/misinformation, discrimination, intimidation, sexism, racism and more deepen 🇧🇷 This will engage more generations in more digital manipulation.”

Adam Peake, a long-time Internet policy expert who has been active in global policy circles at ICANN, IGF and the World Summit on the Information Society, said: “I can't see that individuals, companies, etc. trust Meta (Facebook) or any other organization with data generated in a fully immersive environment.”

Jonatan Taplin, author of “Move Fast and Break Things: How Google, Facebook and Amazon Cornered Culture and Undermined Democracy,” said, “The Metaverse is just another version of the big-tech surveillance economy. It is an attempt by billionaires to escape from the real problems facing our society, such as the climate crisis, the mental health crisis and income inequality. It doesn't solve any of America's pressing problems.”

Janet Salmon, a Vision2Lead consultant, replied, "If the Metaverse is owned and operated by Mark Zuckerberg, it's not going to work. I don't think this kind of surveillance capitalism will continue like we've already seen with the Facebook defectors.”

Simeon Yates, Director of the Center for Digital Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Liverpool, UK, wrote: “Do we really want the socio-political cesspool that defines so much of today's social media to be replicated in 3D VR? We already live in an incredibly complex, immersive, high-fidelity space—the real world. It's beautiful and brutal (see Ukraine and Myanmar today). The Metaverse is another example of libertarian tech brothers looking for a place to hide from this real world. I would prefer they spend their billions on climate change, food security and hunger, education and vaccines.”

An award-winning computer scientist who has spent most of her career at one of the top five technology companies in the USwrote: "It will take a long time, if ever, to reach a state where the metaverse is king. The increasing mediation of technology between people has already had a variety of negative consequences, leading to more depression, suicide, more economic imbalances (often along racial lines), more polarization, and so on. I don't see any hope that the Metaverse will solve this.

"Some of the darkest sci-fi stories I've read fundamentally explore the metaverse and its ramifications and are way ahead of their time. But the closer we get to making science/technology work, the closer we see ourselves to preventing the evils that will follow.

“The internet didn't catch on until a large part of our society had access and until a critical mass of businesses were online and able to start automating. The motivation for the change was clear – to reach more customers and thereby see greater efficiency. When prices fell, everything fell apart. It's not clear to me that the Metaverse will offer the same value. It can offer richer experiences - a chance to stand out better, like a better website or app does today. But will it really help businesses reach more customers or become more efficient?

"Even if you can dip into a device the size of your phone, will you want it? Especially when that device costs more than a phone with the current level of access?”

Dave Karpf, associate professor of media and public affairs at George Washington University and an expert on the digital transformation of advocacy and political activism, said, “The metaverse has a demand-side problem. That's not going to develop until 2040 because in the next five to 10 years it's going to become clear that people don't want the product that Mark Zuckerberg and his Silicon Valley colleagues are trying to sell them."

A privacy and public affairs program manager at one of the top five technology companies in the worldsaid: “There will always be multiple forms of online presence. Email, chat and video conferencing will not go away. Most people spend most of their time online outside of fully immersive and persistent virtual environments. There are many compromises to being in these spaces. A fully immersive and persistent virtual environment is unlikely to provide benefits that outweigh the hardware, performance and privacy tradeoffs.”

Laurie Orlow, senior analyst at Aging-in-Place Technology Watch, commented, “Metaverse is a hype term used by the ultimate hype company Facebook (now hidden behind Meta). It conjures up a dystopian vision and increases the percentage of a life spent in front of a screen or device. Setbacks against the company and the concept are to be expected.”

A sociology professor specializing in culture, race, and ethnicityreplied: "With the level of surveillance these technologies allow, it's definitely not a good idea. We've already given up so much privacy with all the technologies we have to use for convenience, but we don't know exactly how the data collected by these technologies is used and with whom it is shared. In my opinion, the costs outweigh any advantages of a digital society. In fact, studies show that children spend less time on devices and more face-to-face social interactions. I hope that doesn't happen."

An American sociologistwrote: “The idea put forward as a metaverse is the latest in a list of over-the-top suggestions about the role of technology. This vision of what is feasible is driven more by the pursuit of profit than by any objective developments.”

A Singapore-based scholar and teacherreplied, "It's hard to see the utility of a metaverse at this time, when the downsides of being online are becoming increasingly well known. Facebook's own internal research also uncovered ample evidence of harm. The complainant reported precisely on this matter. I don't see that transition at all."

The director of one center focused on the computational analysis of social and organizational systemscommented, "Global wars, the rise of authoritarian rule, the lack of funding for vital research, and the growing distrust of all things cyber will prevent this from being a daily activity for most people."

This section contains a selection of expert comments on where, if at all, blockchain might fit into the picture. Some entrepreneurs, who define Web3 as the packaging of the metaverse plus blockchain and NFTs, do so to encourage monetization of emerging spaces and creation of new business opportunities.

Experts divided themselves into three camps:

  • Blockchain is orthogonal or unrelated or uninitiated when it comes to the metaverse.
  • Blockchain is important to the future of internet transactions of all kinds, including those enabled by the Metaverse.
  • The impact of blockchain is unknown.

These conflicting ideas are presented in the back and forth found in the following collection of comments.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (71)SteveWilson, founder of Lockstep Consulting and vice president and principal analyst at Constellation Research specializing in digital identity and privacy, said: “The identification of blockchain as an intrinsic part of the metaverse is frankly bizarre. I think it's based on a mythological status far removed from the real blockchain experience.

“The blockchain-will-the-world set never really understood how mundane it is. Blockchain was carefully designed to solve a very dry problem - double spending - without an arbiter.

“The 'consensus' reached by a blockchain is very limited; it cannot simply be extrapolated to governance or voting, much less democracy as a whole, as some writers have lazily guessed. E-money double-spending is easily resolved with an arbitrator, but e-money fanatics oppose central banks, digital mints and the like.

“So blockchain is very political; he chooses a thoroughly politically motivated solution. All right - I think everything is political on some level. But to think that this technology can be abstracted from the very simple problem of electronic money to shift the balance of power on a larger stage is just wishful thinking.

"'Self-identity' is another term (and little more than a term) that comes into play here. Blockchain and identity are a heady mix, but missing the essential point that identity is relational.

“A blockchain supports decision-making about the order of events; There is not much in the nature of identity that can be crowdsourced, and even if a blockchain can play a role (e.g. by allowing people to automatically generate and publish a decentralized unique identifier (DID)) , this is a small part of it problem space.

“These ideas are fueled by false intuitions and weighed down by carefully chosen political words like 'sovereignty'. In fact, identity is not something over which anyone can be sovereign. Identity is how I'm known. It's an uncomfortable truth, but most of the time identity isn't created by us, but by those who know us, name us, accredit us. Identity is not something that can be "owned," let alone controlled, by individuals.

Mike Liebhold, retired Distinguished Fellow of the Institute for the Future, wrote: “For now, while blockchains are publicly visible, indelible ledgers, all the software, services, and human practices associated with them are as vulnerable as any other digital system. But by 2040 - based on recent developments at Hyperledger.org and elsewhere - many properly designed, trusted, and trustworthy blockchain services will be in widespread use.”

One researcher specializing in automated decision-making and its social impact commented, "I feel like we're stuck in an endless, fast-paced, recursive hype loop. Most of the hype surrounding the Metaverse, Web3, Blockchain, etc. it's not new, and the movements associated with them – take NFTs for example – are crumbling just as quickly as they arose.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (72)Barry Chudakov, Founder and Director of Sertain Research, said: “Blockchain represents a new framework, a new order. With this new order we think of digital currencies (which are based on blockchain technologies) or newer encryption methods that use the blockchain to create more security. Possibly, in the heated debates over whether Bitcoin will take over as the state-sponsored currency — or if Bitcoin and Dogecoin are losing their early supporters — the larger implications of blockchain technology itself may be lost. When a third-party trading company like Blockchain creates a new method of valuing money, several dependent requirements come into question:

  • state borders
  • national currencies
  • National Business Code
  • International Trade Regulations
  • National and international data protection standards
  • regulatory oversight
  • Keeping Public Records.
  • “As Frontiers in Blockchain put it:

“According to some, blockchains can be truly revolutionary as a recording technology. They could reconfigure and redistribute the power of nation states and traditional elites. ... The key questions then are ... does blockchain technology offer a viable and reliable alternative to government-sponsored record-keeping? To whom is power redistributed in a world of blockchain record-keeping, and what socio-political power dynamics might result?

“Passwords are an ancient word-based tool that is a relic of the alphabetical order. Newer technologies, including blockchain, are likely to replace passwords later this year. What does that tell us?

  • We are moving from alphabetical order to a new order that is not based on words.
  • We understand the words; our understanding of new technologies is less - much less.
  • By not fully understanding the fundamentals of the latest technologies, we are virtually blind to their broader implications.

“Records were first kept manually and then digitally. However, blockchain uses a distributed system of record called ledger that tracks changes to assets within the chain. Unlike a banking or financial accounting system, the general ledger is not centralized, but distributed across all the computers in the chain. This changes the way transactions are initiated, processed, authorized, recorded and reported.

“Changes in business models and business processes can impact back office activities such as international and corporate accounting, financial reporting and tax preparation. Kevin Kelly, writing in Wired, had perhaps the best sense of blockchain's value: 'Blockchain is looking for a job, and ensuring the integrity of an open mirror world might be what it was born to do.'"

Marjory S. Blumenthal, Senior Fellow and Director of the Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, responded, “While blockchain is often discussed as the foundation of Web3, which is a cousin or alternative framework to metaverse, its role is an enabling technology – and the metaverses will have many. Blockchain is touted as a precursor to decentralization and an antidote to monolithic control of a metaverse. The historic tension between centralization and decentralization in information infrastructure is likely to evolve in multiple waves and with different mixes of technologies over the coming decades (and beyond)."

Toby Schulruff, senior technology security expert at the National Network to End Domestic Violence, said, “The promise of blockchain and Web3 is based on the power of tools like cryptocurrencies, smart contracts, and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) to decentralize finance, law, and governance -Areas to counteract power consolidation by governments and corporations.

“However, the underlying infrastructure of these systems is becoming increasingly centralized, and up to this point blockchain has been driven by the priorities of a narrow group of stakeholders. Especially when based on proof-of-work, blockchain also comes with significant energy and environmental costs.

"For Web3 to benefit more people in more diverse ways, like all digital technologies, it must become more environmentally responsible and, just as importantly, more accessible and accountable to those who have the most to lose from an outage."

Brad Templeton, Chair Emeritus of the Electronic Frontier Foundation and Director of the Foresight Institute, responded, “I see blockchains as primarily orthogonal. It's about trust (or lack thereof) and transactions. They could allow applications in this metaverse to be more peer-to-peer, which has value, but they allow that everywhere, not just in what you would call the metaverse.”

Glenn Edens,An Internet Hall of Famer and practicing professor at Arizona State University's School of Global Management wrote, "Your last question was about blockchain, and while it's related to the metaverse, it's orthogonal. If you told me that wasted electricity creates value on a global scale, I'd say you're crazy - and you might still be right.

“Blockchain is just a database, yes, a more transparent database; however, all visions of a great new decentralized world (and by implication a “better” world) are largely wrong. Today's systems are highly centralized, run under the same old rules of commerce, economic advantage-driven governance, and systems that encourage high returns on investments. Blockchain could have been implemented in many ways, and moving from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake is a necessary path, fueled by poor design choices of the past. Couple this waste with an industry where the culture tricks "crypto brothers" into not using their real names and you have a recipe for potential disaster.

“While we don't know the actual numbers, it seems that fraud and theft are no less problematic in the cryptocurrency world than in the real world. Another recent development is crypto custodians as a new business model and investment opportunity - didn't we call them "banks" before? I suggest that while we have transferred much wealth, we have not yet made any real progress for humanity.”

Thomas G. Dietrich, co-founder and chief scientist at BigML, commented, “You're asking about blockchain. You're probably joking. Cryptocurrencies are the tulips of today.”

William Lehr, an economist and technology industry consultant who was formerly associate director of MIT's Internet Convergence and Telecommunications Research Program, said, "Blockchain is important for a number of reasons. See Lehr (2021) on smart contracts. Blockchain is inseparable from a number of other technologies and market/political developments that may lead us in a number of directions that ultimately have little to do with blockchain. It's certainly a brilliant new technology with a lot of disruptive potential.”

Mei Lin Fung, President of People-Centered Internet, wrote: “Blockchain will be very, very important and will provide the lineage for digital footprints needed for science, regulation, oversight, etc., basically every function we have in the real world , other than our eyes, ears, and senses serve to authenticate our perceptions in connection with interactions with other people, institutions, and networks.”

Andre Tutt, legal expert and author of “An FDA for Algorithms”, wrote: “Blockchains are here to stay, I have no doubt about that, and could be the most convenient way to determine ownership of virtual assets in the future. But decentralized blockchain technology is not necessary for the development of the metaverse. Traditional notions of sovereignty and traditional legal systems and instruments will at least continue to play a prominent role in the metaverse, no matter how it develops.”

Markus Johnson, a technology consultant, admin and advisor, wrote: “Blockchain (like a distributed ledger, not a currency) will find a place to record transactions where provenance matters. Medical records, training certificates and scientific data can be examples. It's possible that blockchain could offer a helping hand in combating disinformation by making it easier to trace misinformation back to its source. It will be necessary to reduce the computational burden or it will be ecologically impossible to sustain it.”

Simeon Yates, Director of the Center for Digital Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Liverpool, UK, said: “Unless they find a way to make blockchain use a lot less energy, we need to rule them out to meet our climate change goals. It's a libertarian's dream technology, but in fact it's a potentially serious threat to democratic accountability in our economic and social lives.

“There is a good reason for central banks, centralized accounts for transaction processes and records - they make visible all actions that can have big social impact. Blockchain does not free us from the constraints of central banks and regulators – it frees those powerful who can afford to use it from such constraints.”

Vint Cerf, an Internet Hall of Famer and Vice President of Google, wrote: “Blockchain is oversold, but visibility properties are useful. There are other ways to implement immutable objects so that a particular method doesn't have a monopoly. To be useful, blockchain applications need a lot of responsive software.

“The blockchain is a record of transactions, but it doesn't contain what was done -- think of NFTs, for example. Even if the transaction is, for example, an enforceable contract, the subject matter of the contract itself is not on the chain - so it needs its own protection, just like cryptocurrency coins are not on the chain but in a wallet that was by the way this is the area of ​​greatest vulnerability.

“There remain scalability issues associated with blockchains – how many transactions can be managed per unit of time. You have to remember the whole chain forever in certain types of transactions — like real estate ownership, stock ownership — right through to the sale, which can be decades later.”

Stephan Adelson, president of Adelson Consulting Services, an internet and public health specialist, responded: “Regarding blockchain, the idea that 'what happens on the internet, forever' becomes even more true. The current mindset that Web3 will be "by the people and for the people" is linked to the idea of ​​blockchain as "decentralized" - but I don't think that's the case. There is already a major battle between the major financial interests for control.

“Blockchain will help solve enduring problems as computers keep going 'quantum'. Regarding the Bitcoin protocol and the financial implementation of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, I suspect that something like the Federal Reserve will likely emerge to regulate it.

“It's too much money at stake for an opportunistic company not to get a stake – it would take a series of events like the Great Depression, and control would be contested and won. Additionally, the use of blockchain for illegal activities and the possibility that there will be multiple regulations in multiple global and local jurisdictions will lay the groundwork for one or more groups to find ways to take control of much of the value ."

Peter H. Hellmonds, founder/owner of Arete Publica, a public affairs consultancy, replied: “Blockchain is still in its infancy today, but the potential positive impact on our lives is manifold. From verifying financial transactions to documenting the shipment of goods to certifying the origin of diamonds or other minerals used in international trade, I can imagine everyday blockchain usage will soon surpass usage as a medium for cryptocurrencies. "

Olivier Crepin-Leblond, founding member of the European Dialogue on Internet Governance and board member of the European At-Large Organization at ICANN, wrote: “Blockchain is still very experimental. I would like to believe that this will allow for the emergence of truly decentralized organizations. I would envision traditional top-down companies being replaced by distributed bottom-up companies where integrative management is practiced as the norm. But bottom-up has its limitations, and it is not in the immediate interests of the people at the top of today's corporations to allow or encourage anything that might weaken their current power.

“It needs to be shown that a massively distributed bottom-up enterprise using blockchain to balance its control structure is much more efficient and successful than a traditional top-down structure. Previous attempts have been unsuccessful, but that doesn't mean future attempts will be unsuccessful. You only need one successful model to revolutionize the way we work.”

James Gannon, a healthcare policy expert with a focus on emerging technologies, advisor to Novartis and PharmaLedger, replied: “Blockchain is a technical concept and not a religion, its use will increase (full-time healthcare blockchain work for most of the global healthcare company) , but I think the religious and social aspects will be minimized and we will look at it the same way we talk about DNS or TCP/IP.”

Deirdre Williams, an independent internet governance consultant, said: “Blockchain as a guarantee of some kind of 'truth' is a very useful mechanism. For example, it could allow for a breakdown for specific local sources in a supply chain, adding value for small producers. Blockchain as a cryptocurrency presents a risk with an unacceptably high probability of catastrophe and another mechanism that has the potential to divide rather than unite.”

Michael M. J. Fischer, Professor of Anthropology and Science and Technology Studies at MIT and Professor in the Department of Global Health and Social Medicine at Harvard Medical School, said: “The promise of blockchain is a decentralized anonymous exchange system secured only by records of transactions. Concerns are that: 1) this contributes to the destruction of regulatory governance in favor of criminal and authoritarian activity; and 2) with current cryptocurrency mining technologies, it's horribly energy consuming and environmentally destructive. Relatively carefully controlled 'sandbox' experiments will be conducted and we can see if better solutions can be found.”

Melissa Sassi, global head of the IBM Hyper Protect Accelerator, wrote: “We are still a long way behind when it comes to realizing the many advantages and benefits of blockchain. I would love to see more blockchain applications come to fruition as decentralized checks and balances are definitely needed in healthcare, supply chain, our food supply and other industries.

"I would also like to see more checks and balances on fiat currencies as many governments continue to print money as if it's going out of style, prompting the need for a people-centric currency that reduces the level of corruption and nefarious acts." actions in the world.

“Blockchain has the power to bring a human-centric approach and transparency to the world. I look forward to seeing the role Bitcoin continues to play in disrupting the fiat currency world and our evolution through the history of money, economics and traditional power structures.”

Frank Kaufman, Chair of the Twelve Gates Foundation, said: “Blockchain appears to be the only promising framework I can see right now that offers even a faint hope of reintroducing individual freedom in a world poisoned and sickened by surveillance capabilities.

“Unfortunately, the blockchain seems to have already been infiltrated by greedy power-seekers and may not be enough to give freedom-seeking people hope for a dignified life with liberty, property, privacy and dignity. If greedy power junkies manage to corrupt and infiltrate blockchain technology, a blockchain replacement will take its place.”

Paul Brigner, head of US policy and strategic advocacy at Electric Coin Company (which wants to support technologies that give the public access to a fair and open currency), responded: “In terms of blockchain, I expect decentralized finance based on a Multitude of blockchains will have a significant impact on the global financial ecosystem by 2040. I also expect that today's dominant blockchains, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum, will lose market share to blockchains that have integrated privacy protection technologies (e.g. zk-SNARKs).”

Markus Nottingham, Senior Principal Engineer at Fastly and long-time leader of the Internet Engineering Task Force with experience in internet and web standards, commented, “While there are some potentially useful applications of blockchain, they are a footnote compared to the fraudulent culture that supports it today and will likely continue to support the flawed regulation that controls it."

Gunther Gorizia, Emeritus Professor of AI at the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany, commented: “Environmentally sustainable implementations of blockchain can be useful for contracts, but bitcoin and similar currencies are zero; they have no use value but are an extreme form of exchange value with no real basis. It is yet another attempt to turn the global economy into a giant casino where profits are privatized and losses are socialized.”

Michael Klemann, a senior fellow at the University of California, San Diego, who previously worked for Boston Consulting and Sprint, replied: “Blockchain has many different applications, but in this context, the ability to validate transactions without central authentication will enable more global activities and maybe more criminal activity. ”

Laurence Lannom, Vice President of the Corporation for National Research Initiatives, wrote: “Blockchain is just another technology whose applications are difficult to predict. However, the current optimistic view that it can inspire trust regardless of human action, that technology can be trusted even when people cannot be trusted, is wrong. Ultimately, trust is a human response to experience, and this is especially true with a technology that few of its potential users understand at a fundamental level.”

Lee Warren McKnight, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Innovation at Syracuse University's School of Information Studies, responded, "While blockchain is not a panacea, creating new permanent records/immutable data trails has obvious downsides, and there are many victims of crypto scammers and rug-today." Drawing and more tomorrow, blockchain offers significant hope for privacy and security improvements and self-sovereign data and identity management by design, which it could - but only if we're lucky and law and politics help - avoid the meta-worst-case scenario in 2040."

Bob Frankston, a pioneer of software and internet innovation, wrote: “The question of blockchain in the context of a metaverse is a major red flag that places it in the NBG – Next Big Thing – category. Blockchain is an interesting technology that has become a no-questions-asked answer. What does this have to do with split view? In fact, the idea that everything in the world is on the same blockchain is a dystopian idea at odds with a fundamentally distributed reality. Will a transaction on Mars be linked to a blockchain? The danger is the financial disruption of virtual golden bugs.”

Dimitri Williams, Associate Professor of Technology and Society at the University of Southern California, said: "Blockchain is quite interesting because it can allow for less friction and possibly (not sure) decentralization, which would be good for unleashing creativity and getting us out of pure capitalism." breaking out structures.”

John L. King, a professor at the University of Michigan School of Information, replied: “Blockchain can be useful for certain types of contracts, but these will be low-level activities and, especially when aggregated, will have a significant impact. Most blockchain effects will be outside the domain of cryptocurrencies.”

John Sniadowski, a UK-based systems architect, wrote: “I am not clear how blockchain will evolve in the long-term as each of its various instantiations have significant weaknesses in terms of resource consumption, security and governance. It undoubtedly brings many potential benefits to society, but oppressive governments will refuse to implement it due to legislative problems.

“Of course, some countries will likely use it to further monitor their citizens by building transaction monitoring backdoors and will not require democratic consent as consent is actively suppressed. Therefore, oppressive countries will implement blockchain technologies much faster than democratic societies, putting pent-up pressure on those who want technologies that enhance their democratic rights and everyday experiences.”

Matt Moore, a knowledge management entrepreneur at Australia-based Innotecture, said: “Blockchain is a great complement to roulette tables. I'm still far from convinced of the power of distributed ledgers."

An experienced senior engineer who has worked at several large technology companiessaid: “First, blockchain and its applications probably have little or no role in all of this. At the moment, they add to the general sense of hype and solutions in search of a problem in a way that isn't inherently helpful as it tends to snuff out all the oxygen in any discussion of the practical applications of what you are to suck the room calling the metaverse. Few, if any, of the challenges in realizing the idea of ​​the metaverse are enhanced or enabled solely by blockchain and its friends.”

Karl Annaman, founder of Ghana-based waaliwireless.co, wrote: “Until all members of internet-connected nations have electricity, there can be no just redistribution of wealth in a meaningful way that can undo the damage done by the many invaders of the last 800 years who shaped the globe. Blockchain technologies that cannot reset book value for all members to enable constant collaboration while decapitating a company's ability to hoard resources or assets are critical. Access to information and cultural inclusion are only possible when the above conditions are met.”

Antoine Vergne, co-director of Missions Publique, an organization dedicated to including the voices of all citizens in global politics, wrote: “I can envision the Metaverse as an integrated, global, decentralized, cross-chain financial system. Blockchains will be the key. But for that they need to solve the problem of governance, which is still in its infancy.”

Yvette Wohn, associate professor of computer science at the New Jersey Institute of Technology and director of the Social Interaction Lab, wrote: “Blockchain will make virtual assets more valuable. Many people currently view virtual items as ephemeral or as something that is not a physical asset or "property" (eg.

(Video) The Future of the Internet: The Metaverse

James Hughes, bioethicist, sociologist and executive director of the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, wrote: “Blockchain will play a role in the virtual Internet of Things and could create new economic opportunities for creators.”

Gary Marchionini, Dean of the School of Information and Library Science at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, replied: “Blockchain as a distributed ledger with the possibility of anonymity can be of great use for the exchange and management of information. Proof-of-work implementations à la Bitcoin are extremely poor and wasteful resources.”

An expert in large systems and networkscommented: “Blockchain seems like a bunch of nonsense to me, basically. I see this as marketing hype that doesn't solve a real problem. I'm writing this as a technical expert who admires and appreciates the beautiful math that underlies it (Sybil-resistant distributed consensus, cryptographic proof-of-work, non-interactive zero-knowledge proof, oh my)."

Gary Arlen, Director of Arlen Communications, replied: “Blockchain is SO much a work in progress that it is difficult to predict how it will evolve over the next few years. It has ramifications beyond the current focus of cryptocurrency, which itself is a melting pot of lunacy. We will see how the movement develops towards CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) to create some types of fiat currencies that are stable and reliable.”

Cathy Cavanaugh, Director of Technology at the Lastinger Center for Learning at the University of Florida, said: "Blockchain can make technology and virtual spaces easier to access and provide a secure and persistent virtual identity for everyone."

Greg Sherwin, a leader in digital experimentation at Singularity University, wrote: “By 2040, the growth of quantum computing will have broken public-key cryptography and made all of today’s cryptoassets and NFTs public domain. then be relevant.”

Jonathan Kolber, author of A Celebration Society, wrote: "Blockchain CAN serve to provide a kind of tight 'quality control' for VR experiences, making this type of hacking rare or impossible and providing unhackable 'proof of reality'." From a perspective, this requires a quantum hacking defense like the new product from Quantum Origin.

Kelly Quinn, Associate Clinical Professor of Communication at the University of Illinois-Chicago, replied: “Blockchain will develop some important applications in the (very near!) future, especially in areas where ownership and provenance are crucial. Sectors like real estate, art, and even food and wine offer opportunities to use this technology in important ways to establish chains of ownership and verify provenance.”

Silva-Mitchell-Praxis, futurist and founder of the UN IGF Dynamic Coalition on Data-Driven Health Technologies, wrote: “The problems with blockchain are the high cost of energy and the concern that it will no longer be a safe option as emerging technologies like quantum computing are perfected. . . It will remain a viable option for some time to come as in many cases it is one of the best solutions available in today's supply chain age.”

Ray Schroeder, an expert in technology-enhanced learning and a senior fellow at the University of Illinois-Springfield, said: “Blockchain will be adopted heavily in the next few years. It allows for distributed sharing and more efficient transactions involving numbers, non-fungible tokens, and other less-animated images than the Metaverse. Accounting and bookkeeping for a wide range of items provides secure and instant transactions and records. It's a very different technology than the Metaverse."

Eugene H. Spafford, an internet pioneer and professor of computer science at Purdue, wrote: “Blockchain is now overblown. There are very few applications where it offers advantages over centralized systems. Its speed and environmental impact do not make it attractive.”

Tamara Singh, a Singapore-based global business manager specializing in technological innovation, replied: “A globally integrated system must be interoperable and based on trust. Blockchain plays a role in this. However, the interoperability of the chains must be designed in such a way that no points of failure (of trust and beyond) are introduced into the system.

“Given how much of the metaverse is currently being developed for commercial purposes, it would take an exceptionally well-funded and somewhat revolutionary mastermind to create the platform from which a real metaverse could exist, although Android is arguably an example. how something like this could develop.”

An expert on the evolution of knowledge generation in a time of accelerated technological changereplied: “We need to get out of this ridiculous phase of the blockchain hype cycle and start building really useful applications for distributed and decentralized ledgers and not get distracted by financial speculation, money laundering and opportunism. Blockchain has a lot of potential, but it's not in NFTs and fake money made from blank coins.”

A privacy and public affairs program manager at one of the top five technology companies in the worldsaid: “Permissionless public blockchains are problematic, regardless of whether they are based on proof of work or proof of stake. I expect some form of government regulation will emerge to deal with these issues.”

Cyber ​​policy and platform regulation specialistwrote: “I really don't understand what blockchain has to do with this. Is the question about identity authentication (which is so important in non-metaverse applications)? Or is it about the artificial scarcity of digital assets, so maybe you value access to certain metaverse locations because they have the only copy of the Mona Lisa metaverse or whatever? I really hope we don't go in that direction. A deliberate devaluation of non-competing digital products would destroy a lot of the good things about the Internet.”

When asked to describe some of the positive aspects of XR's evolution, respondents shared broad visions of what they believe will happen in future expanded Metaverse spaces: celebrity interactions, field experiences with prominent athletes, trips to exotic ones and fun places (e.g. archaeological digs, mountaintops, historical scenes and otherworldly locations), deeply enriching learning experiences, remote medical procedures, flexibility in disaster relief, creation of new types of communities, expanded trading venues, a burgeoning of creativity in art and fashion, and fully automated encounters with intelligent agents who take care of things like bookkeeping, job training, and psychological counseling.

Some offered answers that covered a variety of topics and raised a number of questions about how the metaverse might develop.

Kevin Carson,The American futurist, writer and political commentator said: “My hope is that platforms will be primarily free and open source software and that their expansion will be accompanied by economic shifts and conversion to direct production for use in the face of capitalism. terminal crises. My fear is that they are proprietary walled gardens.

“The most promising and truly beneficial use case would be something like the D-Space platform in Daniel Suarez's novel 'Freedom' or the shared virtual space of the Acquis project in Bruce Sterling's 'The Caryatids' - a meta-level to coordinate things as local economic projects, with semantic markup and embedded information. I think the technology will be adopted for many separate projects.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (73)James Hochschwender, Future Strategist at Expansion Consulting, said: “Metaverses have the potential to make a positive contribution to the necessary and/or desired cultural evolution, such as towards a future world in which half of the world's population will be displaced by 2040 due to automation developed and AI, you shouldn't have to spend your entire "working life" in a traditional job, but should be able to focus on self-realization or exploring human potential.

“Properly constructed metaverses can also facilitate changes in everyday behavior towards more environmentally friendly production, transport, services, consumption and lifestyles. There will be a wide range of interactive online services such as utilities, banking/finance, retail, gaming, health diagnostics and treatment services, education and learning, entertainment, and meeting and social interactions.

“The potential for immersive experiences will allow, for example, to experience exactly how new furniture and decorations might look in your own home/apartment before you buy them. Health apps will expand on the teledoc interactions emerging today and offer more intimate interactions that encompass diagnosis and treatment. A variety of educational elements could be incorporated into such spaces. They will enable immersive armchair travel experiences to see global places and cultures.

“Also on the plus side of the balance sheet, metaverses can allow people to interact with famous people — from politicians to sports and art stars — in ways that are impossible in real life. People will be able to experience sport from an "on-court perspective" that will be useful for aspiring athletes while learning their sport and entertaining as entertainment for die-hard fans."

Clifford Lynch, executive director of the Coalition for Networked Information, replied: "Right now 'the metaverse' is being hyped a lot, but there isn't much of it.

We'll see more immersive digital spaces in 2040, but I'm skeptical of how connected, augmented, and ubiquitous they will become, given the trend for immersive space owners to isolate themselves and try to encapsulate people's time in a space maximize. There are strong business reasons for this. We will see incremental improvements and increased use of VR technology by specific communities populating specific immersive spaces.

  • It will be interesting to see when these spaces become largely populated not only with avatars of real people, but also with software agents that interact with people in interesting and useful ways (not to be confused with the very, very primitive chatbot technology ). Driving customer service) online customer service on many websites to a new level). This could include simulations of living people or resuscitation of dead people.
  • Today's video conferencing collaboration technology has gotten really good and really cheap. At least in rich countries, it has become ubiquitous for large sections of the population. We need to go well beyond today's clumsy, cartoonish avatars roaming around a virtual office to transition this type of video conferencing to synchronous collaboration.
  • There are great opportunities to design immersive spaces for education, cultural experiences, and virtual tourism (across time and space, real and imagined places), but these will focus more on interaction with the place or events than interaction between them present visitors focus space.
  • Another set of issues has to do with scope and purpose. We seem to have an idea of ​​how to scale environments where those present share a common goal and some sense of shared social norms: massively multiplayer games, MOOCs, some types of organizational collaboration environments. Today's experiences with things like Second Life or social media suggest that when you bring large numbers of people together in an environment with no common purpose and no societal norms, things go downhill fast.
  • Mirror worlds are already finding their way into a number of process optimization activities (e.g. manufacturing or equipment maintenance) and we will see tremendous growth of this technology/methodology, especially as tools improve. Sooner or later they will inevitably be networked. But the emphasis here is not on people or their interactions; Many of the mirror worlds do not contain humans or only contain them in a very simple way. This will change as sophisticated multi-agent simulations become more common. There are already really interesting developments in things like traffic planning, modeling emergencies in large facilities, or modeling disease spread with these tools. But again, it's mostly simulation and modeling, very different from immersive rooms full of people.
  • Today's virtual setup user interfaces are clunky. This will remain a barrier. There has been limited progress. One can imagine that at some point on a technical level, some kind of neural connection completely changes the picture; The social, political (including national security), and economic complexities that arise when this interface is deployed on a significant scale are another matter. Even research in this area, outside of certain specific areas, like trying to help people who are paralyzed, is extremely touchy and delicate and fraught with ethical dilemmas.”

Melissa R. Michelson, Dean of Arts and Sciences and Professor of Political Science at Menlo College, wrote: “The rise of the metaverse will bring both challenges and benefits. On the plus side, it will allow people to experience things virtually that they might not otherwise have access to. Students can perform dissection and anatomical training without the need for real animal or human bodies. People with reduced mobility can travel virtually. Air travel to conferences becomes less necessary; Teams of people and even entire conferences can hold virtual meetings.

"I don't think the metaverse will replace personal experiences, including education and conferences. The real world adds something that not even an extensive metaverse can replace. The negative aspects of the metaverse are similar to those that appear in all aspects of our digital life: the threat of piracy, identity theft, fraud and cybercrime.”

Alexandre B. Howard, director of the Digital Democracy Project, wrote: "By 2040, we should expect positive applications of augmented reality in education, science, entertainment, manufacturing, government and more, combined with virtual experiences that merge holographic avatars with people in shapes that resemble them." reminiscent of the Star Trek holodeck.

“On the most optimistic timeline, we will see how the best generative aspects of today's raw virtual worlds in Roblox or Minecraft evolve into global markets where people can buy synthetic goods and services using digital assets.

“If nation states can shape democratic norms into globally respected laws, billions of people will be able to work, learn, play and engage in new civil spaces where privacy and security by default protect human rights and civil liberties across platforms and media. Human nature itself will not change, but human nature will be affected by that change, as will our ability to urge collective action to mitigate the worst effects of climate change.”

Antoine Vergne, co-director of Missions Publique, an organization dedicated to including the voices of all citizens in global politics, responded: “The Metaverse will not be 'Ready Player One.' It can become an invisible layer of services and applications. For example, I could have a seamless workflow to buy a movie and watch it on my projector or headphones. The immersive 3D virtual reality will focus on proactive scenarios such as virtual conferencing to avoid travel, support for remote operations by technicians, and games. These will be limited experiences available only to the elite and middle class.”

Greg Sherwin, a leader in digital experimentation at Singularity University, wrote: “I see a boom in virtual tourism, social media (think BodyTime instead of FaceTime), and virtual meetings. Not everyone is a fan of video games, so I see many sections of society choosing not to, or being left out economically. Playbour (job/career in the gaming environment) should also remain a hot topic.”

Toby Schulruff, senior technology security expert at the National Network to End Domestic Violence, predicted, “Industrial and military applications of extended reality, while less well known, will be more powerful. Educational use is encouraged but not widely used or equally available. The XR is increasingly being used for safety training, medical procedures, disaster response and manufacturing. It also has the potential to expand our emotional intelligence through experiences of storytelling, travel and awe of nature.”

Tamara Singh, a Singapore-based global business manager specializing in technology-led innovation, responded, “The Metaverse can serve to level the playing field for the privileged by providing access to the American Dream for the affluent, educated, and/or affluent masses offers. connected . It will also further weaken potentially outdated sovereign borders by providing global access to jobs, health and education at lower costs (subject to adapting systems to accommodate this, of course – measures such as introducing global taxes could serve to do this).

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (74)Mei Lin Fung, President of the People-Centered Internet, wrote speculatively about the positive impacts that could materialize in the future beyond 2040: “Finally, jobs, businesses and digitalization in all sectors, in rural and remote areas, will be transformed in real life in some way that integrate and complement digital and physical life to achieve human and planetary goals.

"As an entire global generation is socialized beyond today's clunky devices and educated with sojourns in the metaverse thanks to technological advances, Douglas Engelbart's vision of the Human Augmentation System may allow our collective intelligence to be applied to the challenges we face and let us live our lives. in nature, switch on at will.

"Positive points of this transition, not to the metaverse, but due to the Human Enhancement System, will lead us to a joyful, almost effortless, but deeply meaningful collaboration and collaboration:

  • Meet existential needs - food, water, air, an environment that supports humans.
  • Coming together to build resilient communities with safety guard rails.
  • Creating the social and institutional frameworks to live a prosperous life with purpose that is inclusive of people from all walks of life, everywhere.

“Everyone, everywhere, will be able to seize opportunities to achieve their goals and realize their potential. Businesses can buy and sell from anyone, anywhere, and they can integrate processes and building blocks into their supply chain that are more cost-effective, less energy-generating, and more productive, bringing local talent and creativity to the point of production and sale, and all points in the global supply chain.

“We will be conceptually more connected by orders of magnitude. As well as the neurons “firing together, connecting”, people from different parts of the world, connected through eCommerce, eScience, eEducation, eHealth, etc., knew without the advances that digital transformation and the tools developed in the Metaverse will enable.

“Diaspora families will grow together over generations, even if they were separated by countries and oceans. The power of the "clans" will increase and threaten corporate dominance. Governments will start offering digital services, but at different levels of competence and effectiveness. The global war for talent will spread beyond companies to countries.”

The use of XR will be expanded and accelerated in medical, industrial, training and education settings

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (75)Oscar H. Gandy jr., scholar emeritus of the political economy of information at the University of Pennsylvania, said: “My general view is that the most positive benefits of developing these systems would be in the field of education and training at all levels.

“I would also see a rapidly emerging market for applications of this technology for personal development by individuals, whether that be learning new skills, including language, or health-related self-improvement.

"I have no doubt that the types of investment in games will also increase rapidly, but I am not willing to characterize this type of activity as a truly useful contribution to society."

read give me, Professor of Information Science at UCLA, wrote: "For me, the most important positive possibilities for an easily understood and used digital immersive environment would be that it would allow people to see and do things that would not normally be possible in physical contexts." - not just playing shiny versions of the existing everyday world, or shopping with fun new avatars, or selling increasingly addictive games.

“For people with disabilities or conditions that limit their mobility or other abilities, a Metaversum platform can open up new opportunities for communication, rehabilitation, or just the ability to be as inclusive and engage in other people and activities as they are want.

“In education and science, it can really add some power to the types of creative visualization or research opportunities that are now being explored on a more limited scale, such as in the digital humanities, data science, public health, urban design, and so on. around.

“I don't see the private sector necessarily being attracted to these types of applications. Instead, they will likely struggle to sustain the business models and data monetization tactics that already dominate the online world, which critically depend on capturing near-unconstrained data about individuals — as any Metaverse-type immersive platform would.”

Monika Murero, director of the E-Life International Institute and expert in AI-based digital therapy and human-centric AI at the University of Naples Federico II in Italy, replied: “I don't think the Metaverse evolution will be mature in 2040. I expect to see "niches" of Metaverse technology being used, and I expect interesting applications in education, healthcare, and some businesses such as real estate, learning environments, and gaming. Interdigital hybrid teachers can be very successful in any learning application in the Metaverse.

"It's possible that the entire entertainment industry will adopt it. A disruptive technology could emerge that presents even more challenging opportunities (and threats) to the current version of the metaverse.”

Alan S. Inouye, Senior Director of Public Policy and Government Relations at the American Library Association, wrote: "Technological innovation is rapid, and by 2040, high-speed broadband will be available in almost every area of ​​the developed world -- particularly for that subset of half a billion people in the highest income or wealth classes. There are already some limited automated agents involved in routine service encounters.

“By 2040, we expect fully-fledged automated virtual appointments for many service encounters, with only unusual or complex exceptions being referred to expert human reviewers. One consequence is the disappearance of many large call centers - at least for this more affluent segment.

“We will look at three main modes of encounters with professional services (accountant, teacher, consultant, etc.): fully automated virtual agent; virtual interaction with a person; and personal interactions. The latter is preferred at a premium price or by the elite.”

Alex Halaves, associate professor of data and society at Arizona State University, said, “The benefits of virtual spaces include the ability for users to create their own environments and enable more creative interactions. There is real potential not only to improve existing educational structures, but also to revitalize them. Some of the work on Minecraft is already showing the possible outlines of it - albeit in blocks."

Howard Rheingold, a pioneering Internet sociologist and author of The Virtual Community, commented: "My hope is that the use of AR and VR in scientific discovery (i.e. exploring the potential therapeutic effects of different molecular configurations through the study and manipulation of models) and education becomes possible (i.e., teaching archeology by examining models of archaeological digs, teaching chemistry by manipulating models of molecules) will lead to positive outcomes.”

Georg Capowich, a retired associate professor of sociology at Loyola University in New Orleans, wrote: “One plus is increasing escapes (taking a virtual vacation you can't afford), hobbies (walking/sailing a model ship someone is building , or driving a model sports car) helps with imagery for things like pain relief and meditation.”

Silva-Mitchell-Praxis, futurist and founder of the UN IGF Dynamic Coalition on Data-Driven Health Technologies, replied: “VR, AR and MR have a lot of potential to support healthcare and improve patient mental health experiences, as well as for medical research and education . And delivery. These tools have tremendous potential in education, child and elder care, especially in office workspaces and meetings, retail, travel and entertainment. Drawbacks such as privacy, security, and other potential harm issues need to be carefully addressed.”

Glenn Grossmann, a banking analytics consultant at Fair Isaac Corporation, said: “Certain categories of our lives can easily adapt to an AI/VR setup. Interactive education (e.g. live lessons in the classroom) is often cited as better than self-paced online learning. This new approach can provide better access to learning skills while lowering the barrier to entry (e.g. location of training). Every technology has drawbacks, so the responsibility of our society is to find delivery methods that strike that balance of values ​​and avoid elements that are seen as negative.”

Ricardo Muller, CEO and managing director of Telematica, a technology and business strategy consulting firm, wrote: “The use of these technologies for interpersonal communication in small groups and (potentially) in large groups becomes so efficient and realistic that the impact on travel (transportation) becomes monumental be. This applies to local and longer transport dependencies. Education and entertainment with XR will (hopefully) reduce unequal access to educational information and services.

“Key impacts include the use of advanced/assistive technologies to improve human-machine interfaces or 'user experience' in further integrating automation in manufacturing, delivery of remote medical services and advanced use of microscopic aspects of biology, biochemistry and Medicine".

The ability to "travel" through a data-saturated world will create dramatic and enriching experiences

Some of these experts envision that the metaverse allows humans to have expanded experiences of the macro and micro dimensions of many aspects of the universe. They believe it will help people examine and analyze the physical world in new ways and they believe it will produce dramatic results.

Howard Rheingold, a pioneering internet sociologist and author of The Virtual Community, predicted: “AR will likely be part of everyday life. Today, only the elders remember having to unfold paper maps, to cite just one example of how digital media is intersecting with and changing the relationships with the physical world.

“In the future, the ability to probe and analyze the properties of the physical world with the full computing power of the cloud (IMO) will no doubt lead to equally dramatic changes. A trivial example of what is possible with today's technology: look at a printed sign in any language and have a quick translation whispered in your ear or superimposed in your field of vision.”

Brad Templeton, President Emeritus of the Electronic Frontier Foundation and Director of the Foresight Institute, said: “I envision interesting metaverse applications, including tourism – bringing knowledge of a place to mind while walking through an unfamiliar city, all forms of entertainment , new sports and forms of recreation and immersive long-distance communication.

"Also interesting - at a time when we have virtual worlds with retinal-level resolution - 'reverse tourism'. The great places in the world cannot bear to be visited by billions who can now afford it. This is an alternative that helps preserve these special places. Of course, the metaverse allows for all kinds of socializing where people enjoy doing things with other people in a virtual world, not just playing games (which of course they do), but exploring, partying, and watching live entertainment together.

“It will be of particular value in business as people work remotely. Because people know that working from home makes them invisible in the office, companies can mandate periods of metaverse socialization for all employees to build lost connections with WFH.”

Matthew Belgian, president and lead UX designer at Vision & Logic, a Massachusetts-based design consultancy, said, "I imagine the metaverse being used for pretty much everything people do these days, from social gatherings to business meetings, to sex , Games, medicine work to simulations. I think the most provocative areas will be where it's too difficult or too dangerous in "real life". For example, climb Mount Everest virtually, drive through space in a vehicle or dive to the bottom of the ocean.

"It's also used for synthetic environments where real-world constraints are meaningless — synthetic worlds with their own physics and reality. Humans have an innate desire to connect with others, it's built into the very essence of who we are. The metaverse is just the next extension of that, from cave drawings and campfire gatherings to town halls, the internet and now the metaverse.”

Rachel Koewert, research psychologist and research director at Take This, a nonprofit organization that provides mental health information and resources to gaming communities, said, “Increased sensory input will inherently provide a richer experience. I'm more interested in how this can change our everyday life in terms of social connectedness, but also learning and experience opportunities.

"Think about being able to explore ancient Rome - walking the streets, listening to the sounds, seeing the people - instead of learning ancient Rome from a book. This potential is exponential.

“How will this transition change the way we think about our world and ourselves? It has the potential to connect us even more and better understand how we are all on the same floating pebble in the middle of space. I think of the experiences astronauts have when they come back to Earth and realize how small everything really is and how we are all the same - we're just trying to live our best life on this planet. I hope that the more interconnected we are as a global society, the more widespread these thoughts and experiences will be.”

The director of an institute that studies the legal implications of new technologiescommented: “Digital fashion is changing the game, beyond the sustainability benefits that come from eliminating the manufacture and distribution of fashion in physical form. The dematerialization of fashion has made chic outfits accessible to the masses: digital representations of high-end clothing often sell for far less than their physical counterparts.

“Technology has also flattened the market, lowered barriers to entry, and allowed inexperienced designers to compete and even collaborate with established brands in the Metaverse. It also provides an accessible entry point into the burgeoning world of the metaverse, potentially attracting apparel consumers who would otherwise have little or no interest in a digital world.

“Digital fashion in the metaverse will be awesome. Basically, fashion is an incredibly wasteful business. It requires us to discard and/or replace functional clothing simply because it is no longer in style. More clothing than necessary is made from waste, and much of it ends up in landfills. A perfect example of waste today is the fast fashion industry, which embodies some of the worst of this increasingly polluting industry.

“Emerging digital fashion can help reduce the climate impact of fashion. Fashionistas can itch for fashion without harming the environment. Aside from the energy consumed by the blockchains that support the cryptocurrencies often used to purchase digital fashion or that host NFTs typically associated with the haute couture level of digital fashion, these are clothing items exceptionally environmentally friendly.”

When asked to describe some of the downsides of the XR world, these experts highlighted a wide range of threats. These included limitations on personal autonomy and people's ability to control their lives; widening the digital divide; increased discrimination; new forms of harassment, intimidation and hatred; new threats to public safety, particularly related to sexual violence and exploitation; more opportunities for misinformation (especially related to clever fakes); dependence on Metaverse activities; distractions that separate people from real life and induce loneliness (or worse); new threats to users' personal data; and the additional monetization of many human activities.

The first few chapters of this report contain dozens of references to these topics, which fit into the different thematic sections. This section contains additional mentions of concerns about the impact of XR.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (76)Mary Chayko, sociologist and professor of communication and information at Rutgers University, commented: “The metaverse in 2040 will certainly be well developed and far-reaching. It will work, but for whom? We are already aware of the vulnerabilities inherent in digital technologies, networks, environments and similarities. A meta-expansion of digital life and society will lead to a corresponding reduction in personal control, with inevitable costs to our well-being.”

Rod Beckstrom, author, technology entrepreneur and former CEO of ICANN and founding director of the US National Center on Cybersecurity, said: "In extreme cases, the realities generated by the metaverse can become so seemingly real that it becomes difficult to distinguish them from reality itself. and many AI digital images of people created by third parties are now considered real photos of people on online community platforms.

“Some implementations and uses of the metaverse will benefit humanity while others will harm it; The question is whether people will be good or not. Metaverse tools and experiences can inspire violence and help people process their emotions and conflicts better and be more peaceful.

“Societies often create policies to try to limit the harmful effects of new technologies and encourage good effects. However, it is extremely difficult to make policy in rapidly evolving technological fields for a number of reasons, including the difficulty in understanding the technology itself and its development, let alone the direct, secondary and tertiary implications of those policies and its application or theirs Absence."

Andre Tutt, a legal expert and author of "An FDA for Algorithms," wrote: "One societal consequence of continually giving people direct access to data seems to be that individuals have less respect for experience, although that trust may be unwarranted . The vulnerability is also immense - a society that reconfigures its physical infrastructure around access to a metaverse cannot allow that metaverse to be hacked or disrupted without significant real-world consequences.

“We may also face an issue where people have trouble distinguishing the real world from the virtual world. We can also see that with the continued empowerment of individuals to build their own communities and forge connections around the world, ideologies are spreading in unexpected ways and places, which can pose a threat to liberal democracies.”

An internet pioneer based in Berkeley, California, commented, "[The construction of the metaverse] will happen, but that's not my hope. When the Internet began - and I was there - we believed that improved communication would break down walls, reduce hatred and end world peace. Turns out it didn't work that way, and I think the same will happen with the Metaverse. This will allow for example an environment with avatars attacking others, likely leading to further deterioration of genuine constructive discussions between people who are not yet aligned.

"It will also further separate the 'rich' from the 'not rich' based on financial status, physical location (due to differences in connectivity), race, religion and so on. And don't get me started on blockchain, at least not in the form of electronic currency. It's a money launderer's wet dream and ultimately very destructive to our society in my opinion. There will be good results, for example telesurgery and a more immersive environment for face-to-face communication, just like video calls offer more connection than voice calls, and 3D will be better than 2D. ”

The director of a university research center focused on ethics and values ​​in technology designwrote: "We are of course already seeing negative aspects - sexual harassment, the long road to the development of social and safety norms in virtual reality spaces and of course the fact that these technologies open up even more human interactions to datatification and surveillance. There are also potential harms associated with addiction that are difficult to predict.”

Steven Livingstone, Founding Director of the Institute for Data, Democracy and Politics and Professor of Public Affairs at George Washington University, commented: “The financial incentives are too great for companies and individuals with enormous resources to miss. Add to that Elon Musk's neural network initiative, a neural network wired directly to the brain, and you see the potential for an addictive, drug-like quality of alternate realities.

Director of Health and Life Sciences und Legal Market Analystwrote: "I fear that employers will use the new environment to force HBEs (homeworkers) into their homes."

Albert „Skip“ Rizzo, clinical psychologist and director of medical virtual reality at the Institute for Creative Technologies at the University of Southern California, commented: “The same threats will be present in these virtual worlds that can occur in the real world.

“Early education for children (and vulnerable populations) about what to do and what not to do needs to be implemented, and some form of non-burdensome supervision or management needs to be done in a way that protects but does not limit opportunities — a difficult balance there. .

“It may be necessary to implement a personal liability mechanism for use of these areas, some content may require traceable digital IDs of real people to participate. This will incur the wrath of some advocates of personal liberty. But complete anonymity can allow malicious actors to wreak havoc.

“There may be “free worlds” without identification that people know they are entering at their peril, but many other spaces need to be controlled or “surveilled” to protect the vulnerable from the dark nature of some individuals.

“With proper safety protocols or “buyer-caution” labels, we can manage the impact of negative consequences and allow more pro-social realms to thrive. Not much different than in real life.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (77)Greg Sherwin, director of digital experiments at Singularity University, said: "Despite the many wows and wonders, it's still being supported by people whose ethics will not have changed - often making these environments as toxic as we are today on social media." see. The change for the world will be the escapism of people who want to control their own false realities versus those who choose to live "behind" and continue to work in the shared reality. Much of the metaverse will gain a reputation as a more elite experience, with distributed communities of influencers and advocates and people building their personal businesses from them.”

A geoscientist from Oceaniacommented, “Of course there are dangers when people live in a new environment, but as with any niche that people have been able to adapt to, we found social ways to generally get the best results. A significant issue for all of these digital technologies will be their projected carbon footprint. Creating a metaverse at the expense of life on the planet is ridiculous and should only be pursued in the context of a radical transformation of our energy resources.”

Markus Johnson, technology advisor, administrator and consultant, wrote: “Fully immersive environments increase the opportunities for monetizing personal data and spreading misinformation. This could add to the steepness of the already dangerous path we are on.”

Deirdre Williams, an independent internet governance consultant, replied: “The biggest change will probably be a widening and deepening of existing divisions, an escalation of misunderstanding of each other's reality and lives. There can be further division and division, diverting the attention of the "rich" world from the troubles of the "poor" world. But people have been taught to get bored very easily, so there's a chance the metaverse will quickly follow Second Life out of the mainstream.”

Fredrik Litto, Emeritus Professor of Communications at the University of São Paulo, replied: “It will increase in use and influence, but is being undermined by its psychological impact on a certain segment of the population, who are increasingly unable to distinguish between 'real reality ' and 'real reality' to distinguish what is artificial".

Mei Lin Fung, President of People-Centered Internet, wrote: “Negatives will arise from anticipated and unanticipated consequences of new tools and software design that are not made sustainable—without care to incorporate feedback and adapt quickly when damage occurs to avoid problems to be avoided or at least reduced. She. Malicious people will thrive for a while, taking advantage of gaps in society's guard rails when advances occur too quickly for our institutional social safeguards and social norms to develop.

Tamara Singh, a Singapore-based global business manager specializing in technology-led innovation, responded, “The metaverse will require new governance structures that are different than today. There are isolated efforts, but there has not yet been a concerted effort to bring together appropriate experts to examine this. The Ethereum Foundation and Blockchain Association can be useful partners, but the experts convened must reflect the nature of the metaverse, with participation from all parts of the world, despite the current geopolitical tensions, to bring together the needs of all aspects of global society.

“Regarding the daily life of the connected: The almost constant connection requires different approaches to well-being and health. I find a simple and familiar framework for considering this question in Maslow's hierarchy of needs. It's likely that physiological needs will remain offline to some degree - no doubt there would be "houses" online, but humanity will still need physical protection and I doubt there's a robust business case for full digitization of reproduction :-).

“Public safety needs will likely be online and offline for some time, but at this level the weight of how much is going digital is starting to increase. Love and belonging can spread widely online, although a recent innovation program I worked on with 20-year-olds reflected exhaustion and disillusionment. There, students attempted to create metaverse connections to organize real-world interactions (beach cleaning, pay-as-you-go cafes, planting trees, hiking).

“Self-esteem and self-actualization can change in the metaverse. Social rating systems can come into play to generate different value concepts.”

Georg Capowich, a retired associate professor of sociology at Loyola University in New Orleans, wrote: “On the other hand, it further separates people and contributes to the atomization of everyday life, since we will not be interacting with a real person. Another downside (and a big one in my opinion) is the potential for privacy compromises, misuse of data collected about individuals, and potential for data leakage.”

Michael Klemann, a senior fellow at the University of California, San Diego, who previously worked for Boston Consulting and Sprint, responded: "If the metaverse were to become more widespread, it would likely widen the digital and social divide, exacerbate mental health problems and lead to a expanded risk of misinformation being taken to a new level and level as people's world is defined by others. Everyday life would be corrupted by an artificial world and real needs would go unmet.”

A professor emeritus of communicationspredicted: “Networks may go dark due to failure of power generation grids, hackers, terrorism, electromagnetic storms, or warfare that cripples satellites and core fiber networks. This vulnerability should not be underestimated, nor should the consequences of corruption/fraud, supply chain issues and problems in the delivery of essential business and financial services.

"The combination of climate change and the formation of the metaverse could become the perfect storm, setting civilization back in unimaginable ways or forcing the world to take a quantum leap towards a more equitable restructuring of our societies and resource allocation. There are too many unknowns and it is not looking good when the world is on the brink of another world war.”

Phillipa Smith, Associate Professor of Language and Culture and Specialist in Social Theory and New Media at Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand, replied: “While there are clearly positive aspects to be offered with the Metaverse, negative aspects need to be foreseen and prepared for and answered , such as cybersecurity and online abuse.

“The goal must be an internet forever, an internet for all and collaboration between governments, technology companies and civil society. While the development of the metaverse is an exciting prospect, it must be approached with caution. Digital divides exist and may continue to exist, so not everyone may benefit.

“There are assumptions about people's connectivity and accessibility to the digital, while at the socio-economic level there may be those who cannot afford devices, who cannot buy data, who lack digital skills or knowledge, at the political level there may be limitations within of countries and regimes, and other marginalized groups need to be considered in technology design – such as people with disabilities, older users, etc.”

Griefers, criminals, profiteers, and manipulators of all kinds will be able to use more sneaky and instantaneous action against the innocent on a large scale.

Daniel S. Schiff, a Ph.D. Candidate studying the governance and social and ethical implications of AI at Georgia Tech's School of Public Policy said: "The existence of a metaverse renews questions about misinformation, privacy, targeted advertising, unequal treatment of subgroups, coercion, harassment, Bullying, labor and sexual exploitation and much more. VR theoretically exacerbates many of these and other social and ethical issues posed by the internet and social media, given the enhanced experience associated with immersive audiovisual content.

“Harassment and bullying could become more traumatizing, while the better the access to data about a person's digital location, emotional state or behavior, the more important it would be to protect privacy. Indeed, early experiences of sexual harassment in virtual spaces indicate an urgent need for proactive governance and regulation, particularly to protect vulnerable groups and children. Other issues relate to mental well-being.”

André Feldstein, associate vice president of learning technologies at Fort Hays State University, responded, “Any idealized notion of the benefits of fully immersive digital spaces must be tempered by the inherent imperfections of human nature. Technology will continue to outpace people's ability to change and adapt. Fully immersive digital spaces will not keep up with technology. They will only continue if developers pay attention not only to the rate of adoption, but also to the patterns of adoption.

“This will be a recursive process and potentially one step forward and two steps back. Things can get more immediate, with more opportunities to try new things. However, there will be equal opportunities to use newly discovered resources for good or for exploitation.”

An American researcherreplied: "I am very concerned about the impact of the metaverse on promoting and exacerbating cross-discrimination in online contexts such as misogyny, online harassment, cyberbullying and hate speech. There have been several articles by women venturing into metaverse social groups and being immediately targeted by male avatars.

“When these interactions are already taking place and gambling is already an activity that involves violence in many games and is known as a misogynist feminist forum, without effective regulation it can only get worse.

“Regulation on social media as we know it has been extremely difficult at best. Social media helps spread fake news and racist alt-right movements, homophobia, ageism, and offensive jokes against people with disabilities, and we can expect far worse from the metaverse.

“This is of particular concern given that two years of pandemic isolation and lockdowns have fueled significant anger and polarization, as demonstrated by the protests in Canada, as well as the political influence of far-right nationalist extremists around the world.

“The metaverse will be extremely difficult to regulate and will likely prove no better than social media at maintaining democratic forms and respectful communication. It can be difficult to maintain virtual reality environments that people can benefit from in the real world.

“And what about our social relationships in the real world? We've already seen burnout and the rise in mental health issues during the pandemic from zoom meetings and social isolation.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (78)Yasmin Ibrahim, Professor of Economics and Digital Culture at Queen Mary University of London, replied: “This will entail many experiments with human subjects and, as always, there will be a moral lag between the societal appropriation of technologies and their moral, ethical and legal consequences over time.

“What can arise before regulatory mechanisms are established and appropriate norms adopted is the loss of inhibitions and an increase in the invasion of violence, misogyny and deviant behavior.”

Professor of public policy at a leading US technology universitysaid: “Today people casually give up information on social media in response to bait thinly disguised as research questions but clearly aimed at uncovering security concerns. What will people accomplish when they have avatars that are drawn into "relationships" with models, movie stars, etc.? to your most personal information?”

Howard Rheingold, a pioneering internet sociologist and author of The Virtual Community, said: “I don't see how it's possible to stop bad actors from destroying immersive spaces on a large scale. I remember my experience with "griefers" in Second Life (meetings interrupted by squadrons of flying penises) and Facebook's current inability to deal with bad actors, even with AI tools and thousands of human moderators."

Alex Hicks, an expert on the ethical dimensions of economic issues and Dean of Oxford College at Emory University, commented: “As the homology of truth improves, there will be many gullible fools for the metaverse to fool if the current popularity of social media is an indication of it. "

People's social and cognitive abilities are weakened or lost as they become more dependent on technology

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (79)David J. Krieger, Director of the Institute for Communication and Leadership in Lucerne, Switzerland, said: “Whether VR or AR gain traction, a major challenge will be the loss of independent decision-making and reliance on computer-aided judgments and actions.

"Many cognitive and motor skills are no longer needed or are significantly altered, making it difficult, if not impossible, for people to do many things in life without technological assistance or 'augmentation'.

"Especially when we get to the point where we can no longer drive a car without navigation or other assistance systems, we will lose many of the skills that we have now. They will be replaced by skills to use technical assistants. There needs to be a good cost-benefit analysis of each and a discussion of what values ​​society should pursue.”

Oscar H. Gandy jr., Researcher Emeritus in the Political Economy of Information at the University of Pennsylvania, said: "My expectations about the negative impact of the development of this technology are based on the extent to which interactions with so-called 'smart devices' are increasingly possible in terms of interactions with people on a Participate in ways that are routinely found to be many times more enjoyable than engaging in human interactions. Interactions with our colleagues, friends and neighbors are likely to decrease dramatically.”

Alan S. Inouye, senior director of public policy and government affairs at the American Library Association, said, “A major concern is the impact on the health of communities and human relationships. Technologies have evolved and been deployed over the last few decades. Only then will the impact on people and communities be assessed or discovered. To some extent this is bound to be true.

“However, I am concerned about the impact of the rise of automated virtual engagements on individuals and communities and the resulting dehumanization of everyday life. Just because interactions can be efficiently mediated or accomplished through technology doesn't mean they should be.

“Leading thinkers like Robert Putnam (author of Bowling Alone) and Eric Klinenberg (author of Palaces for the People) have observed the decline of community and social infrastructure over the past several decades. The causes are varied and complex, but technology is certainly at the heart of it. We want to pay close attention to how the rise of automated agents can further degrade human relationships. And there may be opportunities to use automated agents to strengthen individual and community relationships; An effort to do so deserves considerable initiative."

Kenneth A. Grady, futurist and founding author of The Algorithmic Society blog, observed: “We are already seeing signs of the negative effects that the movement towards more work and social activities in a metaverse environment can inflict on us. People emerging from pandemic isolation and a world dominated by online meetings are finding their social skills are outdated. People describe in-person conferences as mentally taxing as they get used to being "on" all the time.

“Participants report that they lost some of the fluidity of face-to-face sharing. They find that they are more likely to talk over others in conversations (as is often the case in online meetings). They say they're slower to understand social cues and may miss important ones.

“These apocryphal stories are clues that we may lose some of our humanity when we replace face-to-face human interaction with online interaction. For social beings, this can mean important changes. For example, our governance mechanisms (both domestic and international) depend on strong soft skills. Degrading these skills through the overuse of online tools can compound the challenges of a diverse society.”

Henning Schulzrinne, Internet Hall of Fame member, co-chair of the IEEE Internet Technical Committee, and professor at Columbia University, responded, “One apparent danger is that these digital spaces may further reinforce the pseudo-proximity of other digital spaces where others have the The person seems close enough to hate or bother them, but as an avatar, they don't seem real enough to be respected and treated like a "real" human.

"For example, critical cues about emotional state are difficult to convey when the person wears virtual reality goggles — at the very least, a face mask only covers the mouth, not the eyes and other emotionally expressive parts of the face." If the digital rendering is sort of a facsimile of my facial expression, how do I know it's accurate and not conveying the wrong emotional tone?"

A user interaction specialist based in Japanreplied: “Augmented reality developments will work both positively and negatively for people to connect and enjoy. Some people spend most or all of their time there, avoiding various real-world challenges. Separating the virtual world from the real world may become impossible for some; For those immersed in the virtual world, the virtual becomes their reality.”

An American futures strategist and consultantcommented: “We are addicted to our smartphones and the apps are getting refined and engaging. So we're going to become less interactive on a person-to-person level and rely on electronics.”

Professor of Sociology and Chair of African American Studies at a leading US universitycommented: "In general, I see the turning away from interpersonal interaction critically. It seems that each generation is being socialized to have fewer and fewer face-to-face interactions. More and more young people are now finding their partners on dating apps rather than in friend groups, classrooms, communities etc. And we are seeing the social isolation, anxiety and boredom that this has created in this generation.

"If we live in a metaverse and not in this world, how will we embrace our children and each other? How will we see each other? How will we hold someone's hand? The other day I brushed my 86-year-old mother's hair. I worry that the metaverse is taking us away from these human interactions.

"In terms of how we think about our world, it will likely allow us to experience places we couldn't before (including different places and time periods), but at the expense ofnofind out where we are. The former might create more empathy and global connections, but the latter creates alienation from immediate time and space.”

The digital divide will widen again

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (80)Zizi Papacharissi, professor of communications and political science at the University of Illinois-Chicago and editor of the Social Media + Society, wrote: “Can we build a metaverse that is not western? Can we have an internet that doesn't speak English as the main language? What would our worlds look like if our metaverses and collective internets were multilingual and deeply multicultural? I don't think the metaverse will redefine our online experiences by 2040. To be honest, I don't want that to happen.

“I think the metaverse is based on values ​​and habits of everyday life that reflect Western norms of action. American norms and social practices of play, work, love, and cohabitation are disproportionately reflected in the imagination and representation of the metaverse. And there's something wrong with that.

“It puts a lot of emphasis on how people live in the US. This repeats and amplifies the problems and injustices of how we live in America. It doesn't allow us in the US to learn how the rest of the world lives.

“Yet we love to travel in the United States and meet citizens from all over the world because we are inspired by the way they eat, drink, laugh and live together. It's easy to recreate a reflection of our worlds in the metaverse and then invite us to intervene. I do not want it. I have such a world.

“I want a better world, where not only the environment grows, but also our perception, our values, our way of seeing and listening. Augmented Clips no more. Immersive and inclusive is the way forward.”

Tamara Singh, a Singapore-based global business manager specializing in technology-driven innovation, responded, “How can this transform human society? An absolute separation of the world based on connection. If not carefully planned and managed, the metaverse serves to deepen the division between the connected and privileged and the unconnected and underserved. The benefits of the metaverse are even less likely to reach these vulnerable populations, which may deprive them of basic social needs like education and health care.

“There is an alternative scenario in which the primary industries associated with farming and crafting become the premium industries of the future. There are still some necessities of life that cannot be fully digitized, such as food, that could emerge as two ways of being – an interconnected and a disconnected society, each with different priorities and needs.”

Amy Probenstation, CEO of the Nonprofit Technology Enterprise Network, replied, “The question isn't if, it's for whom? It could be that by 2040, the Metaverse will be a much more sophisticated, fully immersive and functional aspect of everyday life. But Broadband Now estimates that by 2022, 42 million Americans won't even be able to afford broadband internet. Additionally, 61 million adults have a disability, and tens of millions of those people have a disability that affects their use of the Internet, from holding a mouse or using a keyboard to visual, hearing and cognitive impairments.

“These are US numbers only, so the many forms of the digital divide are amplified when we look at the whole world. Building the metaverse from some to some will result in a very different offline world and metaverse or online world than if we were building from all to all. What does an inclusive metaverse look like? What schedule does an inclusive metaverse need? The investments we are making today in digital justice - from reliable and affordable broadband services to digital literacy and device access - are truly investments in a more inclusive metaverse of the future, in whatever form it takes.

Rachel Koewert, Research Psychologist and Head of Research at Take This, said: “By 2040, we can expect more people to be more regularly engaged in the digital society. Today, large parts of the population are no longer involved in everyday digital life. As online activities become not only more immersive, but potentially more integral to society, engagement will increase.

“This technology has the potential to be a balance between societies. When everyone has equal access to the same online spaces and the same ability to connect globally, human society as a whole will experience greater equality of opportunity and access to goods, services and knowledge sharing.

“More equitable access to goods, services and knowledge sharing would increase resources exponentially to increase human potential in all fields. There would be improved accessibility to work and education for people in more remote geographic areas and for those with limited physical disabilities.

“However, if there continues to be global inequality in access to this technology, local and population disparities will increase and exacerbate. Other concerns in augmented reality spaces include increased social pressures such as bullying and harassment. With the increase in sensory information available in an immersive space, we are breaking new ground in how digital tools can be used for nefarious purposes.”

An AI architect for one of the most successful software companies in the worldcommented, "I predict that we will see a major social divide among those who have access to the metaverse, whether for entertainment or work purposes."

A professor emeritus of communicationspredicts: “The physical world will remain central to the many billions who have little access to these digital spaces. This will exacerbate the digital divide into a new stratification, with those able to navigate and harness the potential power of the metaverse shaping the global economy and the very nature of our societies by tapping into increasingly scarce food resources , water resources, travel resources and social cohesion access resources. The risks involved are so great that legal, political and societal resistance is to be expected, which could make it more difficult to fulfill XR’s “promise” by 2040.”

Amy Gonzales, associate professor of communications at the University of California, Santa Barbara, said, “To the extent that the metaverse becomes a context for commercial transactions or the delivery of services (e.g., education, healthcare), this is one my main concern is exacerbating the digital divide. Many individuals will not be able to sustainably afford bandwidth or devices, and many will not have the digital skills to navigate these dynamic new spaces.”

Ellery Roberts Biddle, Director of Projects at Ranking Digital Rights, wrote, "As I look ahead and try to envision the future of the metaverse, I can't help but envision a similar story. I'm sure some people and communities will take to doing certain activities in the metaverse and it will work well for them. I hope these communities are relatively homogenous in their values ​​and identities and are in places where prosperity and quality internet come naturally.

“This goes hand in hand with what we have seen developing other new types of spaces that allow for interaction in the digital space. What we've also seen, and I hope is true of the metaverse, is that platforms or infrastructure designed to engage hundreds of millions of people only work really well for those who are in privileged positions to have one seamless connectivity and isolation to enjoy some of the social and human rights harm likely to arise or persist with this new technology.”

A widely distributed technology journalist based in North Americasaid: “The metaverse will exacerbate inequality as patient care differs between the haves and the have-nots. There is a touching drawing of a child in a house sitting in front of a computer for virtual lessons and another child in rags standing on a box to look out the window of a wealthy family's home to accompany the same lesson . The Metaverse will be more of the same.

“It will benefit many of the wealthy, leaving behind the working class, many of whom are people of color. We're still grappling with fundamental connectivity issues in the US, where rural areas are underserved, which will only exacerbate the digital divide between those who can and cannot interact in the metaverse.”

Juan Carlos Mora Montero, futurist and professor of planning and forecasting at the National University of Costa Rica, replied: “When the metaverse becomes a reality in 2040, inhabited by a significant percentage of the world's population, its consequences will reach the entire planet and beyond; however, its benefits will accrue to a smaller percentage of countries and nations.”

Thornton A. Mai, futurist, educator, anthropologist and author, commented: “The transition will be slow and uneven. The real issue is one of affordability and affordability. Will the metaverse be a digital community closed to the first world 1 percent?”

Beth Kolko, Professor of Human-Centered Design and Engineering at the University of Washington, said: “Consider the growth over the past 20 years around cell phones and the way they have restructured the way information is shared, content is produced and financial transactions are conducted. It seems likely that the next 20 years would support an equally significant change in daily activities - this could very well be the advent of the Metaverse.

“I see no particular reason at this point to be optimistic that this transition will contribute to a fairer world. I see the potential for new types of experts to emerge with wealth-building opportunities for a small minority (similar to how mobile created the influencer category and helped more people monetize the notion of celebrity), but I don't see how Technology will contribute to any significant realignment of the world.

“Basically, the metaverse hides the flaws of everyday life (also known as global inequality), and once those flaws are hidden, they are extremely difficult to fix.

“If mobile technology has introduced global personalization, it seems plausible that the metaverse will duplicate this trend and create even more fragmented and self-choosing communities.

“Is there a way to perpetuate randomness in the online world, so that people come into contact with the unexpected, the unknown, and the unknown in a way that inspires empathy rather than antipathy?

"Web3 has the potential to create infrastructure that will enable large segments of the world's population to participate in the global economy in ways that were previously impossible due to local banking restrictions."

An anonymous intervieweewrote: "It may allow people with disabilities and other physical limitations to join aspects of society that have been challenging for them. It can allow people who are marginalized by race, gender, geography and economic status to have a seat at the table or in the virtual space so to speak. But my very great fear is that this is not the case. The metaverse is already full of white men with access to technology and is already being armed.

“Blockchain will absolutely play a pivotal role in building the infrastructure of the metaverse and can be a democratizing force, giving millions access to distributed finance and other secure operations without having to go through banks and other government institutions. But on the other hand, without proponents now fighting for this vision, blockchain could turn into a divisive weapon available only to wealthy whites.”

An expert in human-robot interaction based in Japanreplied: "For some people such a world will be realized, but for many in the world it will not be so. For people to whom personal wealth means more, this development is to be seen as mostly positive. But many people who are less than the privileged class might find they are just being exploited.”

The following respondents wrote articles that deal with the range of societal problems.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (81)Andi Opel, Professor of Communications at Florida State University, commented, “As someone who has taught immersive media production for the past five years and stereo 3D media production for five years before that, I have spent a lot of time exploring these technologies both in and to explore from the classroom.

“Technology has evolved very quickly, with each advancement enhancing the immersive qualities and expanding the capabilities of these technologies. The introduction of the film Avatar in 2009 marked the launch of the latest wave of immersive media technologies, which can be traced back to the first stereographs in 1832.

“The launch of the Oculus Quest wireless headset in 2019 marked a watershed moment in which consumers gained access to relatively affordable virtual reality technology that included stereo 3D, 360-degree imaging, ambisonic sound, and hand motion tracking. The Oculus product provided an entry point for many people and introduced new audiences to the power and potential of media.

“In 2022, nearly 50% of users on the Steam platform, a popular source of virtual reality content and games, were using an Oculus Quest headset. The rapid adoption of this tool plays a pivotal role in popularizing VR.

“Although the technology is becoming more available, there is a slow learning curve for the public. Together we are in America like the audience at the Lumiere brothers' theatre, ready to leap out of the way of the train that appears to be pulling into the theatre. The power of VR to transport someone to a new place is still in its infancy, but the potential is clearly visible, and that potential is profound.

"Transporting people to real places and telling real stories is a small part of the emerging metaverse, but another dynamic space is 'social VR'. In 2021 I participated in Burning Man VR, a fully online experience. The 10 Days of Burning Man VR provided a crash course in Social VR and an opportunity to experience the creativity and vision of the many artists who created Burning Man's virtual exhibitions.

"Each night my wife and I interacted with people from around the world as we explored the exhibits and eventually recruited friends in other states to join us. We could talk to our avatars, gesture, and navigate through everything from the familiar spaces of an outdoor virtual bar to a series of giant floating sculptures that emit showers of colored light. The variety of experiences, along with the social elements that allowed us to share the experience together, was a major turning point in my understanding and ability to see the radical possibilities of this new art form - from simulating the familiar to exploding of the possible. .

"Joe Hunting's film 'We Met in Virtual Reality' (2021) captures some of the emerging possibilities of the metaverse in an incredibly compassionate humane portrait of the power and potential of the metaverse to offer new and unexpected possibilities to audiences around the world . 🇧🇷 Hunting's film, shot entirely in the world of VRChat, an online VR social platform, offers a glimpse into the many things happening in the metaverse and hints at the intensity and diversity of these experiences will only increase as audiences begin to embrace these new independent tools and content creators gain access to the means of production."

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (82)Calton Pu, co-director of the Center for Experimental Research in Computer Systems at Georgia Tech, wrote: "Humans have always lived in their own artificial realities, called 'subjective reality' in philosophy. The Metaverse is only technologically new. Many people, perhaps most, do not distinguish their personal subjective reality from a shared objective reality that is the physical world.

“As long as their subjective reality overlaps sufficiently with the physical world (e.g. respect for the laws of physics), subjective humans can function well in the physical environment, including our society. From this perspective, the metaverse is primarily a technological projection of our subjective reality.

“The main potential innovation of the metaverse is a translation of previous subjective (mental) reality into physical images and objects that can facilitate physical interactions between subjective realities. The technological challenge is how faithful a representation of subjective reality can reach the metaverse versus the power of imagination to shape and alter our subjective reality. The answer should be obvious: the speed of thought will always be faster than the speed of light.

"Given the limitations of the metaverse as a necessarily simplistic projection of our subjective reality, a narrower question would be whether the metaverse can capture a significant portion of our subjective reality that could be useful to half a billion people. For projection purposes, we will divide the metaverse space into two subspaces: one that intersects with the physical world—called the objective metaverse—and the subjective metaverse, which is independent of the physical world.

“The subjective metaverse would be an extension of the creative space currently occupied by intellectual contributions such as books, films, and games. In this area, we are primarily limited by the creative energy of artists, not technology. Therefore, the technological advancement of the XR refinement would be a necessary but not a sufficient condition for the production of the equivalent of blockbuster films.

"It will require a deep understanding of human subjective reality to develop such metaverse blockbusters, which is possible by 2040 but unlikely. The objective metaverse would be an extension of the digital twin technologies that have been hampered by the distance between physical evolution and the world digital twin is always trying to catch up.

“Given the huge investments (and modest returns) over the past decade in technologies known as IoT (Internet of Things) and CPS (Cyber-Physical Systems), it seems unlikely that the objective metaverse will develop far enough , to make a much bigger impact compared to digital twins. ”

Karl M. van Meter,Mathematician and research sociologist at the École Normale Supérieure-Paris and head of the Association Internationale de Méthodologie Sociologique, wrote: "The Metaverse will - like other high-tech developments - have its own 'initial problems' and these problems will be tackled and tackled in many aspects, that are resolved by individuals and institutions that have an interest in its proper functioning.

“This has been the case with the internet, the web, email and digital social media. All four offered tremendous access to information, as well as previously unimaginable sources of social conflict whose future, like that of the metaverse, is far from being decided.

“The real question is whether the relatively open and highly developed countries responsible for these high-tech developments have the means to resolve the social conflicts that have arisen and still remain open or even democratic societies.

“Will the Metaverse be different in China, Russia, North America, Western Europe in the near future? I think the answer is definitely yes, so what about 2040? I think that these countries, more than us as individuals or the high-tech developers, will be the main contributors to what 2040 will be like and what the metaverse will be like by then.

“The US National Intelligence Council (NIC) produces forward-looking reports that look at 'all the players': China, Russia, North America, Western Europe, etc. the NIC would play: telling the US government that the 'police action' in South Vietnam would be successful ; to tell the UN and the world that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction; claims that "advanced interrogation techniques" are not torture. I wonder what the NIC would say about the future of the metaverse without – of course – saying what its role will be.”

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (83)Edson Prestes, computer science professor at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, replied: “Certainly by 2040 we will have enough major technological advances to have a more comprehensive and much more sophisticated metaverse; However, I am a bit skeptical that we will have made much progress in human development by then.

“Investments in technological solutions alone will not be enough to serve the best interests of humanity. It is necessary to put the entire planet at the center of future development. Are we really doing this - are we not just talking about it, but taking positive action with all our heart, mind and energy for positive technological development? There is some effort underway, but will it be enough to move the metaverse in the right direction for humanity in the face of rulers whose primary motivation is not the global good? I'm not sure.

“The metaverse can bring some clear benefits in several areas, but I am concerned about how the most vulnerable are becoming victims of human rights abuses due to new forms of manipulation, abuse and violence. We must also consider the dangers to humanity in an age of AI-powered weapons. Lethal autonomous weapon systems continue to be developed. I am pessimistic.

“Trust between stakeholders (governments, industry and civil society) is fragile. Strict regulations and international agreements must be in place. Prognosis, strategic thinking, planning and strong engagement of the global society are now required to ensure that these new technologies do not aggravate current real-world problems such as excessive energy consumption, increasing exploitation of people and natural resources, human degradation and so on. around.

“The metaverse has great potential to affect democracy in unimaginable ways, including leaving people offline, making them completely invisible to the rest of society. Of course, that already exists in some form today, but it is still being expanded, because this is not access to the Internet, but access to a whole new world.”

Stewart Umpleby, an American cyberneticist, professor emeritus of management, and former director of the Social and Organizational Learning Research Program at George Washington University, wrote: “I am working to advance the field of cybernetics, which offers a general theory of control and communication. I realize that the world is moving from an industrial society based on matter and energy to an information society based on control and communication.”

Jaak Tepandi, Professor of Knowledge-Based Systems at Tallinn University of Technology in Estonia, said: “The idea of ​​a possible positive future scenario for humanity springs from the previous logic of human evolution – the evolution of existing species and the emergence of new species, with some new species gain increasing impact on other species and the environment. Even now, a new species can emerge that represents the integration of humans and artificial systems and can eventually become dominant. Examples of important components in the development of such a species are genetic engineering (including CRISPR), artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, metaverse, and others. Some realistic developments for humanity are:

  • Evolution - integration of humans into the artificial environment (similar to the evolution from apes to humans).
  • Survival - Humans exist alongside the artificially developed environment (similar to humans existing alongside the animal kingdom).
  • Isolation - will the environment for humanity be more like a zoo or a nature reserve?
  • Destruction - an "on-site anthill" or "running costs".

“It is likely that these scenarios will be combined. The slower the transition, the greater the likelihood of positive scenarios for humanity. Therefore, I express the wish that the transition will be slow enough for humanity to experience a peaceful evolution.”

Toni Smith, a leader of the Kororoit Institute, a collaborative multidisciplinary research group that puts complex systems theory and organizational knowledge into practice, replied: “I have spent 40 years designing and exploring virtual spaces that would not only facilitate interaction but also broad cooperation. , the near-failure of our overburdened management systems, hydrology and planetary ecology will likely leave no room for such dreams to be fulfilled.

“I still see this type of technology as an irreplaceable platform for the transition to a deeply decentralized, diverse and transparent society, which may be our best hope for finding viable ways, because successful decentralization needs the trust-building that open transparency can provide .

“Meanwhile, information technology must take those who have the edge seriously, moving from human-centric notions of individual 'intelligence' to recognizing that knowledge is the fundamental foundation upon which all intelligence can be built, that knowledge is a quality of that is populations to a much greater extent as Carl Safina suggested, right down to mother trees and the broad fungal network of wood and now it seems to be watering down so we really need our UI advocates to start putting the other others in bringing a collaborative environment to neutral species in search of the kind of solutions that clearly don't come from humans in self-imposed isolation.

“As beneficiaries of catching up with the more forgiving generation, we must erase any notion that continuing 'business as usual' is any good and hasten the collapse of the unruly. I watched the first part of the new film adaptation of 'Dune' for the third time a few nights ago. It reminded me that we could really use our own Paul Atreides to get our Indigenous survivors to assert their stewardship of the land and waters of the earth that has always been and always will be.

The Future of the Metaverse: Introducing the Internet (84)Yvette Wohn, associate professor of computer science at the New Jersey Institute of Technology and director of the Social Interaction Laboratory, replied: "From a purely accessibility perspective, I don't think the metaverse described by Meta and others is something that most people will be using by 2040 It requires significantly advanced computing resources, both in terms of hardware and internet infrastructure.

“The Metaverse is neither a positive nor a negative space. Their designers need to consider the social consequences their designs entail. For example, are activities restricted to those who have specific hardware or software? Will this lead to dystopian scenarios in isolated virtual spaces?

"If I were to design the Metaverse, it would be something that seamlessly integrates with offline life, that is compatible and integrated with all previous versions of the internet, and that enriches life as a whole, rather than further dividing it between online and offline.

"My doubts shouldn't imply that I don't see value in the Metaverse. I believe the metaverse will create more jobs in ways we can't even imagine right now. I believe the metaverse has the potential to enrich our quality of life, especially for those lacking physical resources. But as with any new technology, the benefits achieved depend on how the technology is designed.

“If we don't want to repeat the mistakes of the past, it is imperative that more actors are involved in the design and development of digital spaces. This includes people from all backgrounds – not just programmers, but also social scientists, educators, policy makers.

"If we expect the metaverse to be an integral part of life in the future, we should not expect for-profit corporations to represent all of society's needs. Burdening companies with all the responsibility is unrealistic and sometimes irresponsible.”

Warren Yoder, longtime director of Mississippi's Public Policy Center, now executive coach, wrote, "The smartphone became part of everyday life because the foveal vision commanded it to present engaging social media stories. Its 1D sound lent itself well to 2D storytelling. It was good enough then; now it's boring.

"Today's rudimentary metaverse is capable of binocular vision and surround sound, with some attempts at haptic touch, but little development of balance, position, smell, or other senses. Meta-creators need to do better in order for the metaverse's sensory experience to capture sustained attention.

“An immersive metaverse must also master more of the human imperatives that drive our attention. We've chosen mixed examples of the threepositiveimperatives. Social media has shown us how to grasp the social imperativeshamefulpurposes. Manufacturers of pornography and sex toys work with the sexual imperative. Educational meta-makers explore ways to truly awaken our innate curiosity. The two aversive imperatives homeostasis and pain are still untouched. They don't seem like natural candidates for the Metaverse. But what humans have done in the past, meta-creators will repeat in the metaverse. Physical challenges have a long and colorful history. Will meta-creators create desert marathons for the participants to run to the point of exhaustion? Will metagroups create painful and frightening initiations?

“Before terrible developments catch up with us again, we need deeper conversations about this new way of being. Fortunately, leading philosophers are doing useful work. Not the philosophers who argue for and against transhumanism. Instead, look to those exploring the transition from postmodernism to metamodernism. Postmodernism has challenged modern power and knowledge. Useful then. Metamodernism now recognizes the existence of multiple modes of the real and challenges the imagination to pick up useful practices wherever we find them.

“We have already begun building a new metamorphic reality that is not bound by old binary contradictions. The metaverse will evolve into a world of metamodern imagination. It's time for a wise foundation to bring together meta-creators and metamodern philosophers to deepen this conversation."

This report contains the results of the 14th Future of the Internet survey by Pew Research Center and Elon University's Imagining the Internet Center.

Participants were asked to answer several questions about the tone and impact of the online environment and the development of activities in the digital public sphere, which have recently raised deeper societal concerns. Invitations to participate were sent by email to more than 10,000 experts and the interested public. They were invited to evaluate via a web-based tool open to them from 11 February to 21 March 2022. A total of 624 people answered at least one question. Results reflect feedback from an unscientific, non-random, optional sample and are not extrapolated to populations other than those expressing opinions in that sample.

Respondents' responses were requested through the following prompts:

The Evolution of the Metaverse:This expert survey is prompted by emerging debates about the evolution and implications of the "metaverse" through 2040. Broadly defined, the metaverse is the realm of computer-generated networked augmented reality spaces (XR, including VR, AR, and/or MR). in which interactions take place between humans and automated entities, some in games or fantasy worlds, and some in "mirror worlds" that duplicate real environments. While extended reality games and social spaces have been around for decades, the technological advances of the early 2020s fueled the development of the metaverse, inspiring tens of billions of dollars in investment and prompting predictions that it would be "the future of the internet." be. ' or 'the next battleground of the internet'. The hope is that advanced, immersive 3D and online worlds can benefit all aspects of society - education, health, gaming and entertainment, arts, social and civic life, and other pursuits. Of course, as with all digital technologies, there are concerns about the health, safety, privacy and economic impact of these new spaces. This spurs new conversations about how the metaverse will mature and what it means for society.

The question: Given what you know about the metaverse, what statement comes closest to your assessment of its likely evolution through 2040?

  • By 2040, the Metaverse will BE a much finer, fully immersive, and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world.
  • By 2040, the Metaverse will not be a much more subtle and fully immersive and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world.

Results for this question on the current evolution of XR and the Metaverse:

  • 54%said that by 2040, the Metaverse WILL BE a much more sophisticated and truly fully immersive and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world.
  • 46%said that by 2040, the metaverse will not be a much more subtle and truly fully immersive and functional aspect of the daily lives of half a billion or more people around the world.

The further quantitative research questions were:

Please clarify your answer.Tell us how you envision this shift from many online activities to more immersive digital spaces and probable digital lives. Regardless of how you view the timing of this, how could this change human society? What are the likely positive aspects of this transition? What negative points can arise? How can this change the everyday life of those connected? And how will this transition change the way we think about our world and ourselves? We are also interested in hearing your thoughts on the role of blockchain and its applications in this evolution of online life by 2040.

The web-based tool was first sent directly to an international pool of experts (mainly from the US) identified and collected by the Pew Research Center and Elon University during previous studies, as well as those identified ina 2003 study of people who made predictions about the likely future of the internet between 1990 and 1995🇧🇷 Other experts with a proven interest in these specific topics have also been added to the list. We invite professionals and policymakers from government agencies and technology companies, think tanks, and advocacy networks (e.g., those that include professionals and academics from the fields of law, ethics, political science, economics, social and civic innovation, sociology, psychology, and education). as -life and communication); global residents in government positions working with communications technologies; technologists and innovators; Faculties of engineering/computer science, political science, sociology/anthropology and economics/entrepreneurship from top universities, undergraduate and postgraduate students; plus some active in civil society organizations focused on digital life and those associated with emerging non-profits and other research entities studying the impact of digital life.

Invited participants included researchers, developers and business leaders from leading global organizations including the Universities of Oxford, Cambridge, MIT, Stanford and Carnegie Mellon; Executives from many companies and organizations have invested heavily in the future of XR and the Metaverse (including but not limited to the following): All These Worlds, Amazon, Apple, Axie Infinity, Beamable, Center for AI and Digital Policy, Constant Change Media Group, The Crucible, Customer Commons, the Cyber ​​​​​​Civil Rights Initiative, Decentraland, Educators in VR, Epic Games, Google, HTC, Infineon, Inrupt, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Roblox, The Sandbox, Second Life, Sony , Unanimous AI , United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Unity, Upland, Virtual World Society, XR Association and more; Active leaders in promoting and innovating global communications networks and technology policies such as Association of Internet Researchers (AoIR), IEEE Global Initiative on Ethics of Autonomous and Intelligent Systems, International Telecommunications Union (ITU), Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers ( ICANN), Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF), Internet Society (ISOC) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Invitees were encouraged to share the survey link with others they felt would be interested in taking part, so there may have been a "snowball effect" as some invitees invited others to give their opinions.

Respondents' observations reflect their personal positions and are not the positions of their employers; Your descriptions of the leadership role help identify your background and area of ​​expertise. Some answers have been edited slightly for style and readability.

A large number of the experts interviewed chose to remain anonymous. Because people's level of experience is an important element of their participation in the conversation, anonymous respondents were given the opportunity to share a description of their experiences or experiences online, and where available, this was noted in this report.

In the demographic portion of this survey, of the 272 respondents who answered the question about their region of the world, 76% said they were based in North America, and 24% said they were based in other parts of the world. Of the 410 respondents who answered the sexual identity question, 71% said they identify as male, 26% as female, and 3% otherwise. Of the 408 respondents who indicated their "principal area of ​​interest", 35% identified themselves as a professor; 15% as futurologists or consultants; 13% as scientists; 10% as a technology developer or administrator; 6% as advocates or user activists; 6% as an entrepreneur or manager; 3% as pioneers or creators; and 10% indicated “Other” as their main area of ​​interest.

Below is a short list of a small selection of key respondents who benefitted from their responses to at least one of the broad themes of this survey. Jobs are included to show experience; They reflect the job titles and locations of respondents at the time of this survey.

Karl Annaman, founder of waaliwireless.co from Ghana;Avi Bar-Zeev, an XR pioneer who pioneered the technology at Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google and others;Rod Beckstrom, author, entrepreneur and former ICANN CEO and director of the US National Center for Cybersecurity;Matthew Belgian, President and Lead Designer of UX at Vision & Logic;Dana Boyd, Founder of the Data & Society Research Institute and Principal Investigator at Microsoft;Stowe Boyd, CEO and Founder of Work Futures;Tim Bray, Founder and Director of Textuality Services (formerly at Amazon);Daniel D. Bryant, Wales-based VR educator, co-founder of Educators in VR;Eric Burger, most recently in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and as Chief Technology Officer for the FCC, now on the Computer Science Department at Georgetown University;Nigel M. Cameron, President Emeritus, Center for Policy on Emerging Technologies;no cassia,Figure Member of the Institute for the Future;Daniel Castro, vice president and director of the Data Innovation Center of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation;Cathy Cavanaugh, Technologiedirektor am Lastinger Center for Learning an der University of Florida;Vinton G. Cerf, Vice President and Chief Internet Evangelist at Google;Barry Chudakov, Founder and Director of Sertain Research;Aymar Jean Christian, Associate Professor of Communication Studies at Northwestern University and Advisor to the Center for Critical Race Digital Studies;David Clark, Internet Hall of Famer und Senior Research Fellow am Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory des MIT;Susan Crawford, Harvard Law School professor and former special assistant in the Obama White House;Silva-Mitchell-Praxis, Founder/Coordinator of the IGF Dynamic Coalition on Data-Driven Health Technologies;cory doctorow, activist journalist and author of How to Destroy Surveillance Capitalism;Stephen Downes, ein Experte am Digital Technologies Research Center des National Research Council of Canada;Ayden Férdeline, public interest technologist based in Berlin, Germany;Seth Finkelstein, director of Finkelstein Consulting and presenter of the Electronic Frontier Foundation Pioneer Award;Michael M. J. Fischer, Professor of Anthropology and Science and Technology Studies at MIT;Maria Anne Frank, Chair of the Cyber ​​​​​​Civil Rights Initiative;You're afraid of Friedman, Professor of Human-Computer Interaction at the University of Washington;Mei Lin Fung, President of the People-Centric Internet;Oscar Gandy, emeritus scholar in the political economy of information at the University of Pennsylvania;Steve Hanna, a distinguished engineer at Infineon Technologies specializing in the security of the Internet of Things;Katie Harbath, Director of Public Policy at Facebook from 2011 to 2021, now Founder and CEO of Anchor Change and Director of Technology and Democracy at the International Republican Institute;Ach Harvey, Technical Director at Seven GPS, Cameroon;John C. Havens, executive director of the Institute of IEEE Global Initiative on Ethics of Autonomous and Intelligent Systems;Peter H. Hellmonds, founder/owner of Arete Publica;James Hochschwender, Future Strategist at Expansion Consulting;Terri Horton, the futurist of work at FuturePath;Alexandre B. Howard, Direktor des Digital Democracy Project;James Hughes, bioethicist, sociologist and executive director of the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies;Christian Huitema, a 40-year software and Internet industry veteran and former Chair of the Internet Architecture Board;Elisabeth Hymann, CEO der XR Association;Alan S. Inouye, Direktor des Office of Information Technology Policy der American Library Association;Markus Jamison, an American Enterprise Institute academic who previously served as Sprint's regulatory policy manager;Frank Kaufman, President of the Twelve Gates Foundation; JI'm Kennedy, senior vice president of strategy at Associated Press;Michael Klemann, Senior Fellow an der University of California, San Diego;André Koch, executive director of the Gardner Institute; Jonathan Kolber, author of A Celebration Society;Chris Labash, Associate Professor of Communications and Innovation at Carnegie Mellon University;Laurence Lannom, Vice President, National Research Initiatives Corporation (CNRI);Sam Lehman-Wilzig, Professor of Communications at Bar-Ilan University, Israel, and author of Virtuality and Humanity;Mike Liebhold, Distinguished Fellow, im Ruhestand, am Institute for the Future;read give me, Professor of Information Studies at UCLA;Sonia Livingston, OBE, Professor of Social Psychology at the London School of Economics and Special Adviser to the House of Lords Select Committee on Communications;Dirk Lueth, co-founder and CEO of Upland;winston mutter, managing partner of CloudTree Ventures;Keram Malicki-Sanchez, Founding President of Constant Change Media Group;Robert M. Mason, Professor Emeritus at the University of Washington;James Mazzone, Global Project Manager for the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction;Sean McGregor, IBM Watson AI XPRIZE Technical Lead und Machine Learning Architect bei Syntiant;Sean Met, Strategic Director at Ansuz Strategy;Riel Miller, head of forecasting department at UNESCO;Mario Morino, Co-fundador of Venture Philanthropy Partners;Jaquelyn Ford Morie, virtual reality pioneer and senior scientist at All These Worlds;Andre Nachison, founder of WeMedia;Read The Demon, Professor of Entrepreneurship at the University of Nairobi Business School;Gina Neff, Professor und Direktor des Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy an der University of Cambridge;David Ottenheimer, Vice President of Trust and Digital Ethics at Inrupt;David Porush, writer and longtime professor at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute;Jon Radoff, author of the blog Building the Metaverse and CEO of Beamable;Albert „Skip“ Rizzo, Director of Medical Virtual Reality at the USC Institute for Creative Technologies;Howard Rheingold, pioneering sociologist and author of The Virtual Community;Ludwig Rosenberg, technologist, inventor, entrepreneur and CEO of Unanimous AI;Markus Rotenberg, Founder and President of the Center for AI and Digital Policy;Douglas Rushkoff, digital theorist and host of the NPR One podcast “Team Human”;Melissa Sassi, Director Global von IBM Hyper Protect Accelerator;Doc Sears, internet pioneer and co-founder and board member of Customer Commons;Henning Schulzrinne, Member of the Internet Hall of Fame and Co-President of the Internet Technical Committee of the IEEE;Toby Schulruff, Senior Technology Security Specialist für das National Network to End Domestic Violence;Marta Szekeres, a Hungary-based complex systems researcher;Brad Templeton, Internet pioneer, futurist and activist, President Emeritus of the Electronic Frontier Foundation;Maja Vujović, director of Compass Communications;Wendell Wallach, Mitglied des Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs;R „Ray“ Wang, Founder and Principal Analyst at Constellation Research;Amy Probenstation, CEO des Nonprofit Technology Enterprise Network;David Weinberger, Senior Fellow am Berkman Center for Internet and Society in Harvard;Brooke Foucault Welles, associate professor of communications at Northeastern University;Kevin Werbach, Professor of Law and Business Ethics at the University of Pennsylvania;SteveWilson, vice president and principal analyst at Constellation Research; andEthan Zuckermann, Direktor der Digital Public Infrastructure Initiative an der University of Massachusetts-Amherst.

A selection of institutions where some of the respondents work or have connections:

AAI prediction; Log in now; Akamai Technologies; altimeter group; Amazon; American Enterprise Institute; American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology; American Library Association; arete publica; University of Arizona; The Associated Press; Australian National University; Bar-Ilan University, Israel; Benton Institute; Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society; BigML; Brookings Institution; CANN media group; Carnegie Council on Ethics in International Affairs; Carnegie Foundation for International Peace; Carnegie Mellon University; Data Innovation Center; Center for Global Enterprises; Center for a New American Security; Center for Strategic and International Studies; Center for Innovation in International Governance; Cisco systems; City University of New York; CloudTree Ventures; University of Columbia; constellation research; convocation + research project; core technology consulting; Cornell University; European Council; Cyber ​​Civil Rights Initiative; Research Institute for Data and Society; DellEMC; Digital Commerce and Data Governance Hub; DotConnectAfrica; Electronic Frontier Foundation; Emerson College; European Broadcasting Union; prospecting alliance; Fudan University, China; FuturePath; Gardner Institute; Georgia Institute of Technology; Global Guerrilla Report; Digital observation of global internet politics; Google; Harvard University; University of Applied Sciences Fresenius; Hokkaido University; IBM; Infineon Technologies; Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN); IDG; Information Technology and Innovation Foundation; Institute for Data, Democracy and Politics; Institute for the Future; International Telecommunication Union; Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF); internet society; Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE); interpersonal intelligence counseling; IO Foundation; Evolution and Technology Journal; Juniper Networks; Liquid Intelligent Technologies; London School of Economics and Political Science; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Menlo College; Goal; metacognitive technology; Michigan State University; Microsoft search; Millennium Project; Mozilla; Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; New York University; Namibia University of Science and Technology; National Network to End Domestic Violence; National Research Council of Canada; Nigerian Communications Commission; Nonprofit Technology Network; Northeast University; OECD; Olin College of Engineering; PeakActivity; The human-centric internet; Connected Search; ranking of digital rights; Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer; Rice University; Rose Hulman Institute of Technology; San Jose State University; University of Singularity; Singapore University of Economics; Smart Cities Council; University of Södertörn, Sweden; Social Science Research Council; Sorbonne University; South China Technical University; University at Stanford; Stevens Institute of Technology; Syracuse University; Take it; Technical University of Tallinn; human team; Telecom Canada; textuality; Business; Tufts University; The Substitution Project; Twelve Gates Foundation; Twitter; unanimous AI; United Nations; University of California, Berkeley; University of California, Los Angeles; University of California, San Diego; University College London; University of Hawaii, Manoa; University of Texas, Austin; the Universities of Alabama, Arizona, Dallas, Delaware, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rochester, San Francisco and Southern California; the Universities of Amsterdam, British Columbia, Cambridge, Cyprus, Edinburgh, Groningen, Liverpool, Naples, Oslo, Otago, Queensland, Toronto, West Indies; UNESCO; highlands; American Army; US geological survey; US National Science Foundation; Venture Philanthropy Partners; Verizon; Virginia Technology; Vision2Lead; vision & logic; waaliwireless.co; Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan; Wellville; Wikimedia Foundation; working future; World Economic Forum; World Wide Web Foundation; World Wide Web Consortium.

recognition

We are very grateful for the contributions of the people who took part in this prospecting.

Primary Researcher

Jan Andersen, Direktor, Imagining the Internet Centre da Elon University

Lee Rainie, Director, Internet and Technology Project, Pew Research

To download the printable version of the full report, click here:
Metaverse-in-2040-Elon-Univ-Pew-Research-06-30-22.pdf

Click here to read respondents' responses to unanalyzed credit surveys:
https://www.elon.edu/u/imagining/surveys/xiv-2022/future-of-metaverse-web3-2040/credit

To read anonymous survey respondents' responses without analysis, click here:
https://www.elon.edu/u/imagining/surveys/xiv-2022/future-of-metaverse-web3-2040/anon/

(Video) The Metaverse and How We'll Build It Together -- Connect 2021

To listen to an expert event recorded on September 15, 2022 and linked to this report, click here:https://www.elon.edu/u/imagining/surveys/xiv-2022/future-of-metaverse-web3-2040/expert_event/

Videos

1. Metaverse, the future of the internet, explained | JUST THE FAQS
(USA TODAY)
2. Into The Metaverse - SOME MORE NEWS
(Some More News)
3. The metaverse and the future of the internet, with Naomi Gleit, Head of Product at Meta
(Web Summit)
4. What is the Metaverse? The future of Internet
(Millennial Knowledge)
5. IDM Video Assignment - Future of the Internet? What is the "Metaverse"?
(Sherry Han)
6. Metaverse Future of Internet #metaverse #facebook #metaverse2021 #demo #instagram
(Metaverse)
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